Reconstruction of Magnetic Activity of the Sun and Changes in Its Irradiance on a Millennium Timescale Using Neurocomputing

Мордвинов, А. В.; Makarenko, N. G.; Ogurtsov, M. G.; Jungner, H.

doi:10.1007/s11207-005-4282-5

Cited by 13 publications

(11 citation statements)

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“…Volcanic (stratospheric) aerosol forcings were taken from [11]. We used three TSI reconstructions obtained in the works [12][13][14]. The total (net) climate forcing F  calculated using TSI reconstruction [14] is shown in Figure 2(f).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We used three TSI reconstructions obtained in the works [12][13][14]. The total (net) climate forcing F  calculated using TSI reconstruction [14] is shown in Figure 2(f). The same forcing but considering the amount of solar radiation that reaches the Earth's surface derived from satellite observations Figure 2 …”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Calculations are performed by using the following parame- . The net forcing NET F  and TSI reconstruction [14] are used in calculations (Figure 3(a) (Figure 3(a)). However, if we use the total forcing NET F  S , which takes into account the global brightening, the divergence between the model and actual temperature reaches 2˚C, i.e.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Background Solar Irradiance and the Climate of the Earth in the End of the 20th Century

Ogurtsov¹,

Lindholm²,

Jalkanen³

2012

ACS

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The possible response of global climate to the changes of background radiation derived from satellite measurement during 1983-2001 is analyzed. Estimation is made by means of one-dimensional energy-balance climatic model. It is shown that the increase of the global surface radiation by 3 W × m -2 through 1983-2001 should result in a corresponding rise of temperature, which exceeds the actual observed values by 0.6˚C -2.0˚C. Possible causes of such disagreement are discussed.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Background Solar Irradiance and the Climate of the Earth in the End of the 20th Century

Ogurtsov¹,

Lindholm²,

Jalkanen³

2012

ACS

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“…For example, different long-term reconstructions of TSI prior to instrumental period (before 1978) show a quite different picture. According to [87], the average TSI increased by ca 5 W×m -2 from the beginning of the 19 th century till the end of the 20 th century, while the reconstruction [68] shows only 1.5 W×m -2 rise during the same time interval (see also Figure 6 from [77]). These values lead to a corresponding radiative forcing 0.26-0.88 W×m -2 .…”

Section: Modern Climate Modeling -Advantages and Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Warming — Scientific Facts, Problems and Possible Scenarios

Ogurtsov¹,

Lindholm²,

Jalkanen³

2013

Climate Variability - Regional and Thematic Patterns

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Global warming GW has become the most interesting problem of climatology in the second part of the th century. "y the end of the s it was finally acknowledged that global climate is warmer than during any period since . Climatic modeling, including the greenhouse effect theory, started to develop intensively and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC was founded by the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization. This organization aims at assessing the scientific information of the risk of human-induced climate change and prediction of the impact of greenhouse effect according to existing climate models. The problem of global warming has also moved from the realm of scientific debates into global and local political spheres. What is the physical mechanism of GW? Does it result only from anthropogenic activity especially the burning of fossil fuels or do some other natural climatic phenomena contribute to the global temperature increase, too? What is the magnitude and pattern of the warming? "nswers to these questions can provide us valuable information about potential climate changes in future decades and, hence, is of crucial importance for all human activity. However, in order to answer the above questions, we need detailed information about past climatic variability and its causes. Unfortunately, substantial gaps exist in our knowledge concerning the dynamics of climate variability. The available instrumental meteorological records are sparse and irregularly distributed. They usually cover no more than the last years. Paleoclimatic proxy records reconstructions from natural archives are irreplaceable tools in filling the gaps in our knowledge about long-term climatic changes. However, the paleodata are less accurate and their reliability quite often raises serious doubts. On the other hand, modern climate models include numerous parameters, some of which are not defined adequately enough. Therefore an integrated analysis using different approaches is necessary to obtain a clearer picture of the global warming. . Global warming in the context of instrumental dataThe average temperature of the Earth, measured by the surface weather station thermometers, has increased appreciably during the last century. The IPCC consortium reported that the global mean surface temperatures have risen by . °C ± . °C when estimated by a linear trend over the last years [ ] Figure " ."ccording to a currently widely held view, the temperature rise is a mainly a result of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases CO , CH , N O, halocarbons and b extremely high and unprecedented in a historical context see e.g. [ ] . It is, however, evident that the instrumentally recorded temperature data are not representative enough to support solid conclusions. Even during the last few decades the weather station network covers less than % of the land, i.e. no more than % of the Earth s surface see Figure " . Moreover, the scarcity of spatial coverage of these data generally increases going back in...

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“…Long-term solar activity reconstruction on centennial to multi-millennia timescales is accomplished by cosmogenic isotope records, such as 10 Be and 14 C (Miletsky et al 2004;Mordvinov et al 2004;Lee et al 2004;Volobuev 2004), which are produced mostly in the upper atmosphere, and thus are anticorrelated with the sunspot number (Scherer et al 2004), but this archeo-magnetic reconstruction method is not really a measurement but rather a "postdiction," and thus is not considered reliable for future predictions (Usoskin & Kovaltsov 2004). Some authors defined a new parameter to characterize the longterm solar cycle variability, the sunspot unit area, which is the size of a sunspot averaged over a cycle, but then lost the Waldmeier effect and the Gnevyshew-Ohl rule (Li et al 2005d).…”

Section: Sunspot Postdictionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Astrophysics in 2005

Trimble

Aschwanden

Hansen

2006

PUBL ASTRON SOC PAC

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ABSTRACT. We bring you, as usual, the Sun and Moon and stars, plus some galaxies and a new section on astrobiology. Some highlights are short (the newly identified class of gamma-ray bursts, and the Deep Impact on Comet 9P/Tempel 1), some long (the age of the universe, which will be found to have the Earth at its center), and a few metonymic, for instance the term "down-sizing" to describe the evolution of star formation rates with redshift.

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Reconstruction of Magnetic Activity of the Sun and Changes in Its Irradiance on a Millennium Timescale Using Neurocomputing

Cited by 13 publications

References 14 publications

Background Solar Irradiance and the Climate of the Earth in the End of the 20th Century

Background Solar Irradiance and the Climate of the Earth in the End of the 20th Century

Global Warming — Scientific Facts, Problems and Possible Scenarios

Astrophysics in 2005

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