Background Solar Irradiance and the Climate of the Earth in the End of the 20th Century

Ogurtsov, M. G.; Lindholm, Markus; Jalkanen, Risto

doi:10.4236/acs.2012.22019

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Emission of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide) most likely is another possible contributor to the GW of the last centuries [1] [2] [13]. Changes in the solar radiation at the Earth's surface (global brightening) might be important source of the warming of the last decades [14]. However, our results show that the contribution of these external factors (including greenhouse effect) to the GW could be less than is often believed [1] [2].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Possible Contribution of Natural Climatic Fluctuations to the Global Warming of the Last 135 Years

Ogurtsov¹,

Lindholm²,

Jalkanen³

2017

ACS

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A number of numerical experiments with artificial random signals (the second order autoregressive processes), which have important statistical properties similar to that of the observed instrumental temperature , were carried out. The results show that in frame of the selected mathematical model the return period of climatic events, analogous to the current global warming (linear increase of temperature for 0.95˚C during the last 135 years) is 2849-5180 years (one event per 2849-5180 years). This means that global warming (GW) of the last 135 years can unlikely be fully explained by inherent oscillations of the climatic system. It was found however, that natural fluctuations of climate may appreciably contribute to the GW. The return period of climatic episodes with 0.5˚C warming during the 135 years (half of the observed GW) was less than 500 years. The result testifies that the role of external factors (emission of greenhouse gases, solar activity etc.) in the GW could be less than often presumed. How to cite this paper: Ogurtsov, M., Lindholm, M. and Jalkanen, R. (2017) On the Possible Contribution of Natural Climatic Fluctuations to the Global Warming of the Last 135 Years. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 7, 256-262. http://dx.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Possible Contribution of Natural Climatic Fluctuations to the Global Warming of the Last 135 Years

Ogurtsov¹,

Lindholm²,

Jalkanen³

2017

ACS

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“…Among the main data used by paleoclimatology are: tree rings (width and density), tree height growth, concentration of stable isotope ( 18 О, 13 С, D) in natural archives (ice, coral and tree rings), borehole temperature measurement and contemporary written historic records (weather diaries, annals etc.). The detailed description of these paleoindicators can be found in [3,11,13,43,78]. Here we describe shortly some of the main features of the available proxy records ( Table 1).…”

Section: Global Warming In the Context Of Paleodatamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The more detailed estimations of [81], based on both the data of satellite and ground-based astronomical and actinometrical observations, show that the respective radiative forcing reaches 2-7 W × m -2 during 1985-2000. Calculations of [78] show that despite a short period of action this forcing factor should result in a corresponding very sharp rise of a global temperature. It should be noted, however, that the quality of the ISCCP cloud data is doubtful [25] and particularly longterm trends of cloudiness, established by means of satellite measurement, are highly disputable [32].…”

Section: Conclusion and Prospects For Further Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Warming — Scientific Facts, Problems and Possible Scenarios

Ogurtsov¹,

Lindholm²,

Jalkanen³

2013

Climate Variability - Regional and Thematic Patterns

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Global warming GW has become the most interesting problem of climatology in the second part of the th century. "y the end of the s it was finally acknowledged that global climate is warmer than during any period since . Climatic modeling, including the greenhouse effect theory, started to develop intensively and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC was founded by the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization. This organization aims at assessing the scientific information of the risk of human-induced climate change and prediction of the impact of greenhouse effect according to existing climate models. The problem of global warming has also moved from the realm of scientific debates into global and local political spheres. What is the physical mechanism of GW? Does it result only from anthropogenic activity especially the burning of fossil fuels or do some other natural climatic phenomena contribute to the global temperature increase, too? What is the magnitude and pattern of the warming? "nswers to these questions can provide us valuable information about potential climate changes in future decades and, hence, is of crucial importance for all human activity. However, in order to answer the above questions, we need detailed information about past climatic variability and its causes. Unfortunately, substantial gaps exist in our knowledge concerning the dynamics of climate variability. The available instrumental meteorological records are sparse and irregularly distributed. They usually cover no more than the last years. Paleoclimatic proxy records reconstructions from natural archives are irreplaceable tools in filling the gaps in our knowledge about long-term climatic changes. However, the paleodata are less accurate and their reliability quite often raises serious doubts. On the other hand, modern climate models include numerous parameters, some of which are not defined adequately enough. Therefore an integrated analysis using different approaches is necessary to obtain a clearer picture of the global warming. . Global warming in the context of instrumental dataThe average temperature of the Earth, measured by the surface weather station thermometers, has increased appreciably during the last century. The IPCC consortium reported that the global mean surface temperatures have risen by . °C ± . °C when estimated by a linear trend over the last years [ ] Figure " ."ccording to a currently widely held view, the temperature rise is a mainly a result of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases CO , CH , N O, halocarbons and b extremely high and unprecedented in a historical context see e.g. [ ] . It is, however, evident that the instrumentally recorded temperature data are not representative enough to support solid conclusions. Even during the last few decades the weather station network covers less than % of the land, i.e. no more than % of the Earth s surface see Figure " . Moreover, the scarcity of spatial coverage of these data generally increases going back in...

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Problems of climate as a problem of optics

Avakyan

2013

J. Opt. Technol.

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Background Solar Irradiance and the Climate of the Earth in the End of the 20th Century

Cited by 3 publications

References 18 publications

On the Possible Contribution of Natural Climatic Fluctuations to the Global Warming of the Last 135 Years

On the Possible Contribution of Natural Climatic Fluctuations to the Global Warming of the Last 135 Years

Global Warming — Scientific Facts, Problems and Possible Scenarios

Problems of climate as a problem of optics

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