Recent developments in goods imports in light of certain determinants

Rationale Spanish goods imports grew in 2022 above what could be expected based on their traditional determinants (final demand and price competitiveness). It is therefore worth studying which additional elements underpinned purchases abroad. Takeaways •Energy market tensions caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine boosted energy imports, due to stockpiling strategies against possible supply problems and for re-export to other EU countries. •Imports of goods with energy-intensive productive processes appear to have benefited from the loss of competitiveness of domestic production resulting from higher energy commodity prices. •The strong import growth also seems to have stemmed from the shift in industrial production towards sectors with a higher import content, the demand for which would have increased due to changes in habits in the wake of the pandemic (e.g. pharmaceuticals, IT and telecommunications) and the recovery in mobility (e.g. textiles).

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Recent developments in goods imports in light of certain determinants

Esteban

Loscos

Machuca

2023

Economic Bulletin

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The Balance of Payments and International Investment Position of Spain in 2022

et al. 2023

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Rationale The balance of payments and international investment position (IIP) are important because of the information they provide on economic relations with the rest of the world, which affect the national economy. Their analysis is of even greater interest in the light of recent events, such as the war in Ukraine and its impact on energy prices. Takeaways •In 2022 the Spanish economy’s net lending fell, owing largely to the deterioration in the energy trade balance. The services balance performed favourably, particularly in the case of travel services, which returned to pre-pandemic levels. •The negative net IIP continued to correct in 2022, standing at 60.5% of GDP, the lowest level in 18 years, thanks to GDP growth, the positive amount of financial transactions with the rest of the world and positive valuation effects. •Spain’s outward foreign direct investment and inward foreign investment in Spain recovered their pre-pandemic levels, with a notably strong performance by the non-financial corporations sector.

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Some explanatory factors of the recent behaviour of goods exports

García Esteban,

Martín Machuca,

Gómez Loscos

2023

Economic Bulletin

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Rationale The nature and severity of the shocks to the global economy over the last three years have profoundly affected trade. This article assesses the effects on Spain’s goods exports and reflects on their possible persistence going forward. Takeaways •The increase in energy commodity prices against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine has eroded the competitiveness of the most energy-intensive manufacturing sectors, affecting producers from the euro area (including Spain) more than elsewhere. •The adverse repercussions of the energy crisis have been partially mitigated thanks to Spain’s comparative advantages in energy product re-exports to the EU countries that rely heavily on Russia. •Global supply disruptions have had a particularly severe impact on car exports, which have also been affected by the technological and regulatory changes under way in the sector.

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Recent developments in goods imports in light of certain determinants

Cited by 3 publications

References 1 publication