During the last years, Spanish goods exports have increased signifi cantly against a background of widening of the Spanish fi rms exporting base. This change has been led by SMEs, although there is still a high concentration of international sales in a small fraction of large and stable exporters. In any case, potential export growth has improved thanks to the widening of stable exporters base and to their geographical diversifi cation towards emerging markets. Exporting fi rms are greater and have higher labour productivity than those focused only in domestic markets. Also within exporting fi rms, those with stable and diversifi ed external fl ows are positively selected in terms of productivity and size. The potential widening of the stable exporting base would require an improvement of the effi ciency of the segment of SMEs. Removing potential regulatory barriers that might restrict their growth and innovation ability is key to consolidate their presence in international markets in the long run.
We examine the determinants of external stress episodes through probit analysis, focusing on the role of foreign liabilities in order to build an external crisis early warning indicator for a set of selected EMU countries. We use a panel country data spanning 1970-2011 from External Wealth Dataset (Phillip Lane). Our results show that the ratio of net and gross foreign liabilities to GDP and current account balances-which measure external debt accumulation speed-are significant stress predictors, although (net) FDI liabilities seem an offset factor. Early warning indicators are based on a signalling approach and exploit panel dimension of the data to develop a country specific indicator. We find that EMU peripheral countries' external indebtedness remains higher than risk threshold, in spite of the external adjustment accumulated in the last years in some countries. This result highlights the necessity of going on structural reforms that reinforce competitiveness of these economies.
Motivación Las importaciones españolas de bienes crecieron en 2022 por encima de lo que se derivaría de sus determinantes tradicionales (demanda final y competitividad-precio), por lo que resulta de interés valorar qué elementos actuaron como soporte adicional de las compras al exterior. Ideas principales •Las tensiones en los mercados de la energía provocadas por la invasión rusa de Ucrania impulsaron las importaciones energéticas, debido a las estrategias de almacenamiento ante eventuales problemas de suministro y de reexportación hacia otros países de la Unión Europea. •Las importaciones de bienes cuyos procesos productivos son intensivos en el uso de energía se habrían visto impulsadas por la pérdida de competitividad de la producción interior ante el encarecimiento de las materias primas energéticas. •El elevado dinamismo de las importaciones también se habría apoyado en la orientación de la producción industrial hacia ramas con mayor contenido importado, cuya demanda se habría incrementado por los cambios de hábitos asociados a la pandemia (p. ej., farmacéutica, informática y telecomunicaciones) y por la recuperación de la movilidad (p. ej., textil).
Rationale Spanish goods imports grew in 2022 above what could be expected based on their traditional determinants (final demand and price competitiveness). It is therefore worth studying which additional elements underpinned purchases abroad. Takeaways •Energy market tensions caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine boosted energy imports, due to stockpiling strategies against possible supply problems and for re-export to other EU countries. •Imports of goods with energy-intensive productive processes appear to have benefited from the loss of competitiveness of domestic production resulting from higher energy commodity prices. •The strong import growth also seems to have stemmed from the shift in industrial production towards sectors with a higher import content, the demand for which would have increased due to changes in habits in the wake of the pandemic (e.g. pharmaceuticals, IT and telecommunications) and the recovery in mobility (e.g. textiles).
Motivación: Los indicadores de turismo internacional en España consolidan su recuperación hacia los niveles previos a la pandemia, tras la eliminación de la práctica totalidad de las restricciones a la movilidad internacional. En este contexto, cabe analizar los cambios observados en el origen y en el comportamiento de los turistas. Ideas principales: • Los niveles de afluencia turística de 2019 todavía no se han recuperado en su totalidad, debido, principalmente, a la debilidad que mantiene el turismo de larga distancia, en particular el asiático. • No obstante, los ingresos turísticos alcanzan ya sus niveles precrisis, impulsados, en parte, por una mayor atracción de turismo con una mayor capacidad de gasto, tal y como reflejaría el aumento del peso relativo del alojamiento hotelero de mayor calidad. • Las expectativas para los próximos meses son de cierta cautela, ante la incertidumbre por el empeoramiento de las perspectivas económicas y la escalada inflacionista. A largo plazo, la evolución del turismo internacional está condicionada por la capacidad del sector para continuar mejorando la calidad de su oferta.
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