Recent and future changes of precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal

Santos, Mónica; Fonseca, André; Fragoso, Marcelo; Santos, João A.

doi:10.1007/s00704-018-2667-2

Cited by 48 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 81 publications

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“…The Mediterranean region will be particularly vulnerable to future changes in extreme temperature and precipitation (Paxian et al, 2015). Despite a decrease in mean precipitation, studies suggest that by the end of the century, heavy precipitation will show drastic increase across many areas (Barcikowska et al, 2018;Paxian et al, 2015;Samuels et al, 2018;Santos et al, 2019;Tramblay and Somot, 2018). Over this part of the Mediterranean region, besides total precipitation, consecutive wet days and number of wet days will decrease, whereas precipitation on extremely wet days are expected to increase (Samuels et al, 2018).…”

Section: C4mentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation in Montenegro

Ćulafić¹,

Popov²,

Gnjato³

et al. 2020

Időjárás

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The paper analyses, spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation over Montenegro. Data on mean monthly precipitation during the period 1961–2015 from 17 meteorological stations were used for the analysis. Four regions with different spatial precipitation regimes were identified by using the principal component analysis and the agglomerative hierarchical clustering method. A downward tendency in annual precipitation prevails over Montenegro. The most prominent reduction was present in the summer season. In contrast, precipitation increased during autumn. However, the majority of estimated trend values was low and statistically insignificant.

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Section: C4mentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation in Montenegro

Ćulafić¹,

Popov²,

Gnjato³

et al. 2020

Időjárás

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“…While there are some uncertainties inherent to the climate change projections, particularly for precipitation, most of the country is projected to become drier. Additionally, some significant changes in temperature and precipitation extremes are also very likely in the future (Andrade et al ., ; Santos et al ., ). Annual mean precipitation is projected to decrease up to 400 mm by the mid‐21st century, mostly in spring, summer and autumn (Melo‐Gonçalves et al ., ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Bioclimatic conditions of the Portuguese wine denominations of origin under changing climates

Santos

Fonseca

Fraga

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Wine production and quality are highly sensitive to local weather variability and climatic conditions. To assess these characteristics, this research examines high‐resolution bioclimatic zoning over 50 protected denominations of origin (DOs)/sub‐regions in mainland Portugal through the analysis of two selected bioclimatic indices (dryness and Huglin indices). The analysis is based on a new very high‐resolution dataset over mainland Portugal and for a baseline period (1981–2015). Climate change projections are also assessed for two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and using a 5‐member climate model ensemble over the future periods of 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. A principal component analysis was applied to the time mean spatial patterns of the two selected bioclimatic indices, for the baseline period (1981–2015) and only over the planted vineyard cover areas in each region, isolating a new optimized combined index which was used for subsequent analysis. The results for the present conditions highlight the spatial variability of Portuguese DO/sub‐regions. This study also shows that for the future periods, and regardless of the scenario, the wine sector in Portugal will likely see important bioclimatic changes across most DOs. Increases in the growing‐season mean temperatures in all the Portuguese winemaking DO/sub‐regions, accompanied by increasing severe dryness, are projected in future climates, mainly in south‐eastern Portugal and along the upper Douro Valley (Douro Superior) in north‐eastern Portugal. These DO/sub‐regions are projected to become much drier than currently so that irrigation or the introduction of new varieties are likely adaptation measures to maintain the viability and sustainability of regional viticulture in future decades.

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“…During the winter period (for the demonstrated metrics) more correlations have statistical significance, a total of 94, while in summer 80. This might be due to the fact that during the winter the resulting runoff from precipitation is much higher than in summer [46], transporting sediments, nutrients and pesticides [47] from agricultural land uses, and contaminants from artificial land use to surface waters. With the presence of contaminants in surface waters, benthic macroinvertebrates communities are harmed, what is reflected in a decrease of quantity and biodiversity, and consequently, the index value (IPtIN) deceases.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the Effects of Landscape Metrics in Water Quality, Ave River Basin Case Study

Fernandes¹,

Martins²,

Fernandes³

et al. 2020

IJDNE

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Ave River Basin, located in the northern region of Portugal, was once tagged as one of the most polluted of Europe. Although many authors have given prominence to point source pressures, the present study reveals challenging results, by exposing strong effects of landscape metrics in water quality. In twelve sampling sites, the Portuguese benthic macroinvertebrate index (IPtIN) was measured during the winter and summer of 2017. For each site, it was delineated drainage sections, ranging from 100 meters to the entire drainage area. For each section, it was calculated landscape metrics for generic land-use types, and it was also calculated the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, between each metric in each scale with IPtIN. The preliminary analysis of results led to understand during the winter edge length and number of patches of artificial surfaces revealed a negative impact. Variables such as connectance of agricultural land use patches only revealed a negative influence during summer, in a short-range spatial extent. The contrast between agricultural land uses with forested and with artificial areas was the metric with a notable effect, since maximum correlations were achieved for the contrast between forested and agriculture, and minimum in the contrast between agriculture with artificial areas.

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Recent and future changes of precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal

Cited by 48 publications

References 81 publications

Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation in Montenegro

Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation in Montenegro

Bioclimatic conditions of the Portuguese wine denominations of origin under changing climates

Exploring the Effects of Landscape Metrics in Water Quality, Ave River Basin Case Study

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