Real Time and Automatic Analysis Program for WASAVIES: Warning System for Aviation Exposure to Solar Energetic Particles

Abstract

A physics-based warning system for aviation exposure to solar energetic particles, WASAVIES, is improved to be capable of real-time and automatic analysis. In the improved system, the count rates of several neutron monitors at the ground level, as well as the proton fluxes measured by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), are continuously downloaded at intervals of 5 min and used for checking the occurrence of ground level enhancement (GLE). When a GLE event is detected, the system automatically determines the model parameters for characterizing the profiles of each GLE event and nowcasts and forecasts the radiation dose rates all over the world up to 24 hr after the flare onset. The performance of WASAVIES is examined by analyzing the four major GLE events of the 21st century. The accuracy of the nowcast data obtained by the model is well validated by the reproducibility of the current neutron monitor count rates and GOES proton fluxes as well as the flight-dose measurements. On the other hand, the forecast data are reliable only when the evaluated parameters are stable, as expected in the model. A Web interface of WASAVIES is also developed and will be released in the near future through the public server

Radiation Dose Nowcast for the Ground Level Enhancement on 10–11 September 2017

“…We have recently developed a physics‐based framework called WASAVIES (WArning System for AVIation Exposure to Solar energetic particles) to nowcast and forecast the development of a GLE and the corresponding radiation dose, as described in a series of papers (Kataoka et al, ; Kubo et al, ; Miyake et al, ; Sato et al, ). The detailed calculation algorithm of the latest version of the automated WASAVIES system and its verification are reported in a companion paper (Sato, Kataoka, et al, , S18 hereafter).…”

Nowcast and forecast of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes in magnetosphere and ionosphere – Extension of WASAVIES to Earth orbit

“…eu/), respectively, at 5-min intervals. Information about the selected NM stations can be found in our previous paper (Sato et al, 2018b). At the end of each day, the daily count rates of each NM are calculated and used for determining the force field potential of the day.…”

“…With these situations in mind, we set out to develop a new computational method that can nowcast and forecast SEP fluxes at any location in the magnetosphere and ionosphere during a large SPE associated with a ground-level enhancement (GLE). It is an extended version of the WArning System for AVIation Exposure to SEP (WASAVIES) Kataoka et al, 2018;Sato et al, 2018b), which can nowcast and forecast radiation doses in the atmosphere by using real-time data of the count rates of several neutron monitors (NMs) at the ground level and high-energy proton fluxes observed by Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). The contribution of GCR can be also calculated by the system by using the PARMA model (Sato, 2015(Sato, , 2016.…”

“…The organ doses and dose equivalents of astronauts in International Space Station (ISS) can be also estimated by the system considering its shielding effect, which has been evaluated using the Particle and Heavy Ion Transport code System (PHITS, Sato et al, 2018a) coupled with a virtual ISS model. Detailed calculation procedures of the original WASAVIES can be found in our previous paper (Sato et al, 2018b). Thus, the present study focuses on describing the extended part of the calculation procedures, together with its validation results, based on the experimental data measured by ISS and Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites (POES) during large GLEs that have occurred in the 21st century.…”

Real‐Time Detection of the Ground Level Enhancement on 10 September 2017 by A.Ne.Mo.S.: System Report

“…The accurate prognosis and warning of GLEs in real time is very critical, as the high‐energy solar particles can cause various problems to technology and biological systems. This can range from damages to the microelectronics of satellites (Mavromichalaki et al, ) to the increase of radiation dose received by space crews and air crews (Berger et al, ; Lovelace et al, ; Paschalis et al, ; Sato et al, ; Tobiska et al, ). Thus, an accurate and timely warning of GLE events is essential from the application side.…”