Nowcast and forecast of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes in magnetosphere and ionosphere – Extension of WASAVIES to Earth orbit

Sato, Tatsuhiko; Kataoka, Ryuho; Shiota, Daikou; Kubo, Yûki; Ishii, Mamoru; Yasuda, Hiroshi; Miyake, Shoko; Miyoshi, Yoshizumi; Ueno, H.; Nagamatsu, Aiko

doi:10.1051/swsc/2019006

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 35 publications

(42 reference statements)

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“…The radiation dose during a large solar flare calculated by WASAVIES will be used as mandatory information for aviation operation management by the International Civil Aviation Organization. An extended version of WASAVIES applicable to the Earth Orbit was also developed (Sato et al 2019).…”

Section: Estimation Of Human Radiation Dose On Aviation and Space Sta...mentioning

confidence: 99%

PSTEP: project for solar–terrestrial environment prediction

Kusano¹,

Ichimoto²,

Ishii³

et al. 2021

Earth Planets Space

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Although solar activity may significantly impact the global environment and socioeconomic systems, the mechanisms for solar eruptions and the subsequent processes have not yet been fully understood. Thus, modern society supported by advanced information systems is at risk from severe space weather disturbances. Project for solar–terrestrial environment prediction (PSTEP) was launched to improve this situation through synergy between basic science research and operational forecast. The PSTEP is a nationwide research collaboration in Japan and was conducted from April 2015 to March 2020, supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan. By this project, we sought to answer the fundamental questions concerning the solar–terrestrial environment and aimed to build a next-generation space weather forecast system to prepare for severe space weather disasters. The PSTEP consists of four research groups and proposal-based research units. It has made a significant progress in space weather research and operational forecasts, publishing over 500 refereed journal papers and organizing four international symposiums, various workshops and seminars, and summer school for graduate students at Rikubetsu in 2017. This paper is a summary report of the PSTEP and describes the major research achievements it produced.

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Section: Estimation Of Human Radiation Dose On Aviation and Space Sta...mentioning

confidence: 99%

PSTEP: project for solar–terrestrial environment prediction

Kusano¹,

Ichimoto²,

Ishii³

et al. 2021

Earth Planets Space

Self Cite

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show abstract

“…The total SEP fluences during these events were estimated to be 119–141 and 51–68 times higher than those during GLE69, which is the largest event to have occurred to date in the 21st century (Mekhaldi et al., 2015). If a male astronaut had stayed in an ISS-type spacecraft in deep space during GLE69, his red bone marrow dose and dose equivalent would have been approximately 5 mGy and 8 mSv, respectively, as estimated by the WASAVIES simulation (Sato et al., 2019). Therefore, astronauts may suffer from radiation doses in excess of the threshold value for some tissue reactions (i.e.…”

Section: Recent Progress In Space Weather Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent progress in space weather research for cosmic radiation dosimetry

Sato

2020

Ann ICRP

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The radiation environment in space is a complex mixture of particles of solar and galactic origin with a broad range of energies. In astronaut dose estimation, three sources must be considered: galactic cosmic radiation, trapped particles, and solar energetic particles (SEPs). The astronaut dose due to SEP exposure during a space mission is more difficult to estimate than the other components because the occurrence of a large solar particle event cannot be predicted by the current space weather research. Thus, several models have been proposed to estimate the worst-case scenario and/or the probability of the integral SEP fluence during a particular space mission, considering the confidence level, solar activity, and duration of the mission. In addition, recent investigations of the cosmogenic nuclide concentrations in tree rings and ice cores have revealed that the sun can cause solar particle events much larger than the largest event recorded in the modern solar observations. If such an extreme event occurs during a mission to deep space, astronauts may suffer from radiation doses in excess of the threshold value for some tissue reactions (0.5 Gy) and their career limit (0.6–1.2 Sv). This article reviews the recent progress made in space weather research that is useful for cosmic radiation dosimetry.

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“…According to the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), for every 1 Sv increase in effective radiation exposure, the cancer risk increases by 1.65% (Ma et al., 2013). The booming aviation sector in the last decade pays attention to cosmic radiation, which is mainly made up of ionizing particles from Galactic Cosmic Radiation (GCR) and Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) (Sato et al., 2019). It is difficult to quantify exactly how cosmic radiation interacts with tissues and cells, but excessive aviation radiation exposure should be avoided considering the potential long‐term consequences in terms of diseases and biological system effects (ICAO, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Optimized Solution to Long‐Distance Flight Routes Under Extreme Cosmic Radiation

et al. 2022

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During extraordinary space weather, cosmic radiation can be significant enough to pose a threat to aircrew health. Traditional methods of reducing massive cosmic radiation exposure include flight cancellation, lowering flying altitudes, and flight rerouting. However, flight cancellation can result in additional financial expenditures, while lowering flight altitudes and rerouting can consequently cause more fuel consumption or even violation of airspace rights. As a result, we use a multi‐objective optimization model to assign optimal flight altitude and speed to reduce the overall weighted sum of cosmic radiation and fuel consumption. The simulation scenario is based on a space weather event with dramatically increased cosmic radiation that occurs during a routine international flight from Tokyo to London. Our results show that the proposed model can reduce fuel consumption while satisfying cosmic radiation limits recommended by the Council of the European Union if the forecasts of cosmic radiation are sufficiently accurate. In addition, a Pareto frontier is provided as a tactical air traffic management guideline. Our study provides insight into future policymaking for air transportation during harsh space weather conditions.

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Nowcast and forecast of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes in magnetosphere and ionosphere – Extension of WASAVIES to Earth orbit

Cited by 6 publications

References 35 publications

PSTEP: project for solar–terrestrial environment prediction

PSTEP: project for solar–terrestrial environment prediction

Recent progress in space weather research for cosmic radiation dosimetry

An Optimized Solution to Long‐Distance Flight Routes Under Extreme Cosmic Radiation

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