Readiness of the Polish Crisis Management System to Respond to Long-Term, Large-Scale Power Shortages and Failures (Blackouts)

Abstract

Large-scale failures of electric power systems (blackouts) have been the subject of intensive research in most countries for several years. This research aims primarily at seeking solutions to improve the reliability of the operation of power systems and the development of effective strategies to protect critical infrastructure from the effects of energy shortages and power cuts. In contrast, systematic research on crisis management and civil protection under conditions of prolonged blackout has been undertaken in Europe only recently, and these extremely important aspects of energy security have been delayed by the COVID-19 crisis. The ability of the Polish crisis management system to cope with the consequences of long-term, large-scale shortages and interruptions in the supply of electricity, as well as the consequences of possible failures in this field, has not been systematically examined to date. This issue is of growing strategic importance, not only from the point of view of security and defence policy, but also economic cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe. Poland’s infrastructural security must be considered in a broad regional and supra-regional context. A long-term lack of electricity in a large area of Poland would undermine the stability of the entire national security system, destabilising the region and supranational security systems. Apart from objective reasons, intentional attacks on the links of such a chain cannot be ruled out. Poland is the leader of this region, a frontline country in the NATO-Russia conflict, as well as a liaison state that provides the Baltic states—being EU and NATO members—with a land connection to Western Europe. In view of the growing risk of blackout, the importance of the problem and the existence of a cognitive gap in this field, we evaluated the Polish crisis management system in terms of its ability to respond to the effects of a sudden, long-term, large-scale blackout. Methodologically, we adopted a systems approach to security management. In order to estimate the consequences of a blackout, we used analogue forecasting tools and scenario analysis. By analysing previous crisis situations caused by blackouts and local conditions of vulnerability to such events, we formulated basic preparedness requirements that a modern crisis management system should meet in the face of the growing risk of blackouts. A review of strategic documents and crisis planning processes in public administration allowed us to identify deficits and weaknesses in the Polish crisis management system. On this basis we formulated recommendations whose implementation shall improve the ability of the national security system to face such challenges in the future.

Risk Management Using Network Thinking Methodology on the Example of Rail Transport

“…Only developed operating procedures, trained personnel and prepared infrastructure to allow efficient decision-making and implementation of specific tasks. They also make each entity involved in activities for the benefit of safety a certain link of the management system [51]. The risk of time pressure results mainly from the dynamics of transformations in the organisation and its environment.…”

A New Method of Obtaining Water from Water Storage Tanks in a Crisis Situation Using Renewable Energy

“…A UV lamp ( 10) is attached to the water pipe (1), the input of which is connected to the output of the charger (11), the input of which is connected to the power source switch (5). Water pipe (1) is closed with a hydrant cap (12). Photovoltaic panels (8) convert solar energy into electricity and enable emergency power supply of the UV lamp (10) and the pump (3).…”

“…A power blackout would therefore prevent the proper functioning of water supply systems. Energy security must be considered in a broad regional and cross-border context [12]. Risk management in water supply systems and related risk mitigation measures are required by Directive (EU) 2020/2184 [13] and standards EN 15975-1 [14] and EN 15975-2 [15].…”

Review on Causes of Power Outages and Their Occurrence: Mitigation Strategies

“…Technical indices with an emphasis on average power interruption frequency, length, and severity, such as CAIDI, SAIDI, and SAIFI, statistically indicate the security of the system. The value of lost load (VoLL) [98] is a significant socioeconomic measure that addresses the financial effects of power outages and the monetary assessment of uninterrupted power supply [70,99].…”