Quantitative Risk Assessment for the Introduction of African Swine Fever Virus into the European Union by Legal Import of Live Pigs

Mur, Lina; Martínez‐López, Beatriz; Martínez‐Avilés, Marta; Costard, S.; Wieland, Barbara; Pfeiffer, Dirk U.; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel

doi:10.1111/j.1865-1682.2011.01253.x

Cited by 61 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Consequently, prevention is based on avoiding introduction of the disease. Several routes of entry and risk assessments have been described for different EU countries (Mur et al, 2012a(Mur et al, , b, 2014Costard et al, 2013a;De la Torre et al, in press). The main control measures are to monitor the entry of pigs and pig products and to forbid the use of food waste for feeding pigs.…”

Section: Early Detection Prevention and Controlmentioning

confidence: 97%

An Update on the Epidemiology and Pathology of African Swine Fever

Sánchez-Vizcaíno

Mur

Gómez-Villamandos

et al. 2015

Journal of Comparative Pathology

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337

360

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Section: Early Detection Prevention and Controlmentioning

confidence: 97%

An Update on the Epidemiology and Pathology of African Swine Fever

Sánchez-Vizcaíno

Mur

Gómez-Villamandos

et al. 2015

Journal of Comparative Pathology

Self Cite

337

360

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“…before detecting the first case in the exporting country) [18]; ii) legal imports of different types of pig products also during the HRP [19]; iii) illegal imports of pig products [20]; iv) transport fomites (including contaminated trucks or waste from international planes and ships) [21]; and v) wild boar movements [22]. The objective of the present work was to integrate all these pathways into a flexible and transparent modular framework to enable the visualization and comprehension of the risk of ASFV introduction into EU by these five different pathways.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modular framework to assess the risk of African swine fever virus entry into the European Union

et al. 2014

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BackgroundThe recent occurrence and spread of African swine fever (ASF) in Eastern Europe is perceived as a serious risk for the pig industry in the European Union (EU). In order to estimate the potential risk of ASF virus (ASFV) entering the EU, several pathways of introduction were previously assessed separately. The present work aimed to integrate five of these assessments (legal imports of pigs, legal imports of products, illegal imports of products, fomites associated with transport and wild boar movements) into a modular tool that facilitates the visualization and comprehension of the relative risk of ASFV introduction into the EU by each analyzed pathway.ResultsThe framework’s results indicate that 48% of EU countries are at relatively high risk (risk score 4 or 5 out of 5) for ASFV entry for at least one analyzed pathway. Four of these countries obtained the maximum risk score for one pathway: Bulgaria for legally imported products during the high risk period (HRP); Finland for wild boar; Slovenia and Sweden for legally imported pigs during the HRP. Distribution of risk considerably differed from one pathway to another; for some pathways, the risk was concentrated in a few countries (e.g., transport fomites), whereas other pathways incurred a high risk for 4 or 5 countries (legal pigs, illegal imports and wild boar).ConclusionsThe modular framework, developed to estimate the risk of ASFV entry into the EU, is available in a public domain, and is a transparent, easy-to-interpret tool that can be updated and adapted if required. The model’s results determine the EU countries at higher risk for each ASFV introduction route, and provide a useful basis to develop a global coordinated program to improve ASFV prevention in the EU.

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“…Based on previous literature on risk assessment models (Martinez-Lopez et al, 2008;Mur et al, 2012), we considered regression coefficients (β) with values higher than 0.1, having a significant influence in the final output of the model.…”

Section: Sensitivity Analysis and Model Experimentationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transmission of foot and mouth disease at the wildlife/livestock interface of the Kruger National Park, South Africa: Can the risk be mitigated?

Jori

Etter

2016

Preventive Veterinary Medicine

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15.2 Highlights  Since 2000, the efficacy of foot and mouth disease control at the interface between cattle and buffaloes at the edge of the Kruger National Park has deteriorated and needs urgent improvement.  This quantitative risk assessment allowing to model the risk of FMD virus transmission between cattle and buffaloes at the edge of the KNP is based on ecological and epidemiological data and fits with past and current numbers of outbreaks.  Including variability and uncertainty this model could be used as a tool for assessing control strategies and may be easily adapted to other transfrontier conservation parks in Southern Africa.  Examples encompassing vaccination coverage (or efficacy), control of buffaloes' population in the park, control of buffaloes escaping the park are presented and discussed.3 SummaryIn Southern Africa, the African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is the natural reservoir of foot and mouth disease (FMD). Contacts between this species and cattle are responsible for most of the FMD outbreaks in cattle at the edge of protected areas, which generate huge economic losses. During the late 1980's and 90's, the erection of veterinary cordon fences and the regular vaccination of cattle exposed to buffalo contact at the interface of the Kruger National Park (KNP), proved to be efficient to control and prevent FMD outbreaks in South Africa. However, since 2000, the efficiency of those measures has deteriorated, resulting in an increased rate of FMD outbreaks in cattle outside KNP, currently occurring more than once a year. Based on retrospective ecological and epidemiological data, we developed a stochastic quantitative model to assess the annual risk of FMD virus (FMDV) transmission from buffalo to cattle herds present at the KNP interface. The model suggests that good immunization of approximately 75% of the cattle population combined with a reduction of buffalo/cattle contacts is an efficient combination to reduce FMDV transmission to one infective event every 5.5 years, emulating the epidemiological situation observed at the end of the 20 th century, before current failure of control measures. The model also indicates that an increasing number of buffalo present in the KNP and crossing its boundaries, combined with a reduction in the vaccination coverage of cattle herds at the interface, increases 3-fold the risk of transmission (one infective event per year).The model proposed makes biological sense and provides a good representation of current knowledge of FMD ecology and epidemiology in Southern Africa which can be used to discuss with stakeholders on different management options to control FMD at the wildlife livestock interface and updated if new information becomes available. It also suggests that the control of FMD at the KNP interface is becoming increasingly challenging and will probably require alternative approaches to control this disease and its economic impact.

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Quantitative Risk Assessment for the Introduction of African Swine Fever Virus into the European Union by Legal Import of Live Pigs

Cited by 61 publications

References 17 publications

An Update on the Epidemiology and Pathology of African Swine Fever

An Update on the Epidemiology and Pathology of African Swine Fever

Modular framework to assess the risk of African swine fever virus entry into the European Union

Transmission of foot and mouth disease at the wildlife/livestock interface of the Kruger National Park, South Africa: Can the risk be mitigated?

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