Quantitative risk and optimal design approaches in the snow avalanche field: Review and extensions

Eckert, Nicolas; Keylock, Christopher J.; Bertrand, D.; Parent, Éric; Faug, Thierry; Favier, Philomène; Naaïm, Mohamed

doi:10.1016/j.coldregions.2012.03.003

Cited by 43 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 99 publications

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“…In Europe, the main means of risk mitigation are hazard zoning and forecasting. These are largely based on a combination of historical records, numerical simulations, and expert judgements [Eckert et al, 2012].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The dynamics of surges in the 3 February 2015 avalanches in Vallée de la Sionne

Köhler¹,

McElwaine

Sovilla³

et al. 2016

JGR Earth Surface

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Five avalanches were artificially released at the Vallée de la Sionne test site in the west of Switzerland on 3 February 2015 and recorded by the GEOphysical flow dynamics using pulsed Doppler radAR Mark 3 radar system. The radar beam penetrates the dilute powder cloud and measures reflections from the underlying denser avalanche features allowing the tracking of the flow at 111 Hz with 0.75 m downslope resolution. The data show that the avalanches contain many internal surges. The large or “major” surges originate from the secondary release of slabs. These slabs can each contain more mass than the initial release, and thus can greatly affect the flow dynamics, by unevenly distributing the mass. The small or “minor” surges appear to be a roll wave‐like instability, and these can greatly influence the front dynamics as they can repeatedly overtake the leading edge. We analyzed the friction acting on the fronts of minor surges using a Voellmy‐like, simple one‐dimensional model with frictional resistance and velocity‐squared drag. This model fits the data of the overall velocity, but it cannot capture the dynamics and especially the slowing of the minor surges, which requires dramatically varying effective friction. Our findings suggest that current avalanche models based on Voellmy‐like friction laws do not accurately describe the physics of the intermittent frontal region of large mixed avalanches. We suggest that these data can only be explained by changes in the snow surface, such as the entrainment of the upper snow layers and the smoothing by earlier flow fronts.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The dynamics of surges in the 3 February 2015 avalanches in Vallée de la Sionne

Köhler¹,

McElwaine

Sovilla³

et al. 2016

JGR Earth Surface

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“…Découlant de la théorie de l'utilité espérée en environnement risqué (Von Neumann et al, 1953), le risque est évalué comme la valeur espérée des dommages (Erdlenbruch et al, 2008 ;Bründl et al, 2009 ;Eckert et al, 2012).…”

Section: Evaluation Du Risque Naturel Et De Réduction Par Les Mesuresunclassified

“…Par exemple, le formalisme développé en France pour l'évaluation du risque dans le domaine des avalanches prend en compte l'ensemble de la distribution des probabilités p(y) du phénomène caractérisé par un critère d'intensité y. Chaque élément potentiellement exposé z est décrit par sa valeur zi le plus souvent établie sur l'échelle monétaire, son taux d'endommagement potentiel (ou vulnérabilité) V(zi,y) qui dépend de l'intensité du phénomène auquel il est soumis, son degré d'exposition q(zi). Le risque total Rw est la somme des risques individuels Rzi sur w qui rassemble l'ensemble des éléments exposés z (Figure 3) (Eckert et al, 2012). Dans la pratique, le calcul de cette intégrale est approché par discrétisation sur un nombre limité de scénarios de probabilité donnée.…”

Section: Evaluation Du Risque Naturel Et De Réduction Par Les Mesuresunclassified

“…Celle des trapèzes peut être proposée ( Figure 3). Les mesures de protection (Figure 1), associées à des coûts de construction et d'entretien, diminuent le risque initial Rw(0) jusqu'à un risque résiduel Rw(d) (Figure 3) (Eckert et al, 2012 ;Bründl et al, 2009}. L'efficience de ces mesures est alors déterminée par comparaison du coût des mesures avec la réduction effective du risque (Rw(0)-Rw(d)).…”

Section: Evaluation Du Risque Naturel Et De Réduction Par Les Mesuresunclassified

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Évaluation intégrée de l’efficience des ouvrages de protection contre les risques naturels en montagne

Carladous¹,

Tacnet²,

Curt³

et al. 2015

Congrès Lambda Mu 19 De Maîtrise Des Risques Et Sûreté De Fonctionnement

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“…For instance, the Bayesian framework (Eckert et al, 2009(Eckert et al, , 2008Pasanisi et al, 2012) makes it possible to take into account uncertainties in the statistical modeling assumptions and data availability. On the other hand, a better definition of vulnerability or fragility relations remains a challenge for the improvement of the integrated framework of avalanche risk assessment (Eckert et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A reliability assessment of physical vulnerability of reinforced concrete walls loaded by snow avalanches

Favier

Bertrand

Eckert³

et al. 2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Snow avalanches are a threat to many kinds of elements (human beings, communication axes, structures, etc.) in mountain regions. For risk evaluation, the vulnerability assessment of civil engineering structures such as buildings and dwellings exposed to avalanches still needs to be improved. This paper presents an approach to determine the fragility curves associated with reinforced concrete (RC) structures loaded by typical avalanche pressures and provides quantitative results for different geometrical configurations. First, several mechanical limit states of the RC wall are defined using classical engineering approaches (Eurocode 2), and the pressure of structure collapse is calculated from the usual yield line theory. Next, the fragility curve is evaluated as a function of avalanche loading using a Monte Carlo approach, and sensitivity studies (Sobol indices) are conducted to estimate the respective weight of the RC wall model inputs. Finally, fragility curves and relevant indicators such a their mean and fragility range are proposed for the different structure boundary conditions analyzed. The influence of the input distributions on the fragility curves is investigated. This shows the wider fragility range and/or the slight shift in the median that has to be considered when a possible slight change in mean/standard deviation/inter-variable correlation and/or the non-Gaussian nature of the input distributions is accounted for.

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Quantitative risk and optimal design approaches in the snow avalanche field: Review and extensions

Cited by 43 publications

References 99 publications

The dynamics of surges in the 3 February 2015 avalanches in Vallée de la Sionne

The dynamics of surges in the 3 February 2015 avalanches in Vallée de la Sionne

Évaluation intégrée de l’efficience des ouvrages de protection contre les risques naturels en montagne

A reliability assessment of physical vulnerability of reinforced concrete walls loaded by snow avalanches

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