-This paper presents a new approach for combining sources of evidences with different importances and reliabilities. Usually, the combination of sources of evidences with different reliabilities is done by the classical Shafer's discounting approach. Therefore, to consider unequal importances of sources, if any, a similar reliability discounting process is generally used, making no difference between the notion of importance and reliability. In fact, in multicriteria decision context, these notions should be clearly distinguished. This paper shows how this can be done and we provide simple examples to show the differences between both solutions for managing importances and reliabilities of sources. We also discuss the possibility for mixing them in a global fusion process.
For more than 150 years, humans have tried to limit the geomorphic activity of mountain streams, and the related damage, using torrent control works. Check dams are likely the most emblematic civil engineering structures used in soil conservation programs. Modern mountain societies have inherited thousands of these structures built in upland gullies and streams. To help define their effectiveness and decisions concerning their maintenance or new project designs, a clear understanding of potential effects of check dams on river systems, i.e. their functions, is first needed. The next steps concern quantitative assessments of each function on the flood features and combination of all effects. The present understanding of these sometimes old structures' functions can be complicated because the societal and environmental contexts in which the original structures were built may have changed. To bridge this gap, this paper traces the purposes for which check dams were built, through a detailed analysis of French archives. We first analyze chronologically how each function was theorized and applied in the field. In the nineteenth century, engineers developed a thorough empirical and conceptual knowledge of mountain soil erosion, torrential geomorphology, and sediment transport processes as well as check dam interactions with these natural processes. The second part of this paper synthesizes conceptual descriptions of the check dams' functions, in the light of more than 150 years of experience, with their implication on the features of the structures. The French experience is compared to other countries' pioneering works. Finally, the next steps and remaining research challenges toward a comprehensive analysis of check dams' efficiency in torrent hazard mitigation are presented. This analysis is proposed to remind how, conceptually, check dams may influence geomorphic systems, bearing in mind the knowledge represented in pioneer guidelines and recent works on the subject.
In this paper, we propose a new Multi-Criteria Decision-Making method (MCDM) which is rank reversal free. We call it the SPOTIS method standing for Stable Preference Ordering Towards Ideal Solution method. Our method is exempt of rank reversal because the preference ordering established from the score matrix of the MCDM problem under consideration does not require the relative comparisons between alternatives, but only comparisons with respect to the ideal solution chosen by the MCDM system designer after transforming the incomplete original MCDM problem into a well-defined one thanks to the specification of the min and max bounds of each criterion involved in the problem.
In crisis situations, systems, organizations, and people must react and deal with events that are inherently unpredictable before they occur: vital societal functions and thus infrastructures must be restored or adapted as quickly as possible. This capacity refers to resilience. Progress concerning its conceptualization has been made but it remains difficult to assess and apply in practice. The results of this article stem from a literature review allowing the analysis of current advances in the development of proposals to improve the management of infrastructure resilience. The article: (i) identifies different dimensions of resilience; (ii) highlights current limits of assessing and controlling resilience; and (iii) proposes several directions for future research that could go beyond the current limits of resilience management, but subject to compliance with a number of constraints. These constraints are taking into account different hazards, cascade effects, and uncertain conditions, dealing with technical, organizational, economical, and human domains, and integrating temporal and spatial aspects.
International audienceIn mountain areas, natural phenomena such as snow avalanches, debris flows and rock-falls, put people and objects at risk with sometimes dramatic consequences. Risk is classically considered as a combination of hazard, the combination of the intensity and frequency of the phenomenon, and vulnerability which corresponds to the consequences of the phenomenon on exposed people and material assets. Risk management consists in identifying the risk level as well as choosing the best strategies for risk prevention, i.e. mitigation. In the context of natural phenomena in mountainous areas, technical and scientific knowledge is often lacking. Risk management decisions are therefore based on imperfect information. This information comes from more or less reliable sources ranging from historical data, expert assessments, numerical simulations etc. Finally, risk management decisions are the result of complex knowledge management and reasoning processes. Tracing the information and propagating information quality from data acquisition to decisions are therefore important steps in the decision-making process. In this paper, a global integrated framework is proposed to improve the risk management process in a context of information imperfection provided by more or less reliable sources. It includes uncertainty as well as imprecision, inconsistency and incompleteness. It is original in the methods used and their association: sequential decision context description, development of specific decision-making methods, imperfection propagation in numerical modelling and information fusion. This framework not only assists in decision-making but also traces the process and evaluates the impact of information quality on decision-making
Abstract. In this paper we propose a new general method for decisionmaking under uncertainty based on the belief interval distance. We show through several simple illustrative examples how this method works and its ability to provide reasonable results.
Mountain territories are remarkably exposed to natural phenomena such as torrential floods, arising due to climate and geophysical environmental changes. Protection structures deteriorate with time due to the harsh phenomena they are subjected to since their construction. If not regularly maintained, the level of protection offered by these structures will be reduced. The methodology presented in this paper integrates physics-based and dependability models for monitoring the state evolution of protection structures and improving maintenance decision-making processes. The modeling approach proposed is based on 1) physics-based modeling for identifying the probabilistic laws of the transition times between the defined states of the structure depending on its behavior over time and 2) a decision aiding method based on Petri nets, which helps in choosing the best maintenance strategy while considering budgetary constraints. This approach is applied on a check dam located within a series of check dams in the Manival torrent in Saint-Ismier, France.
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