Quantitative Contribution of Climate Change
and Land Use Change to Runoff in Tarbela
Catchment, Pakistan

Shaukat, Rana Shahram; Khan, Mudasser Muneer; Shahid, Muhammad; Shoaib, Muhammad; Khan, Tanveer Ahmad; Aslam, Muhammad Adnan

doi:10.15244/pjoes/112214

Cited by 8 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Agricultural risk is a complex problem not only for farm households that are forced to contend with but also the whole society that must play a role due to its effect on the economic sector [8]. Farmers can make a better decision related to crop management including assuming adaptive measures if they have a well understanding of the risk sources [9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors Influencing Rice Farmers’ Risk Attitudes and Perceptions in Bangladesh amid Environmental and Climatic Issues

Islam¹,

Rahman²,

Sarker³

et al. 2020

Pol. J. Environ. Stud.

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Rice farmers in Bangladesh face various environmental, climatic and market price-related risks. Choices of various operational tactics used for farm management are mostly influenced by farmers' risk perception and attitude. This study intends to discover the influencing factors of a farmer on the risk associated with environmental and climatic issues. This study quantifies the risk perceptions of rice farmers, their perceived behavior, and various associated underlying factors using a crosssectional dataset on 600 rice farmers from three major rice-growing districts in Bangladesh. Equally, Likely Certainty Equivalent approach has been used to rank the farmers' perceptions of three major risk dimensions such as the risk of market price fluctuation, the risk from various natural hazards, and risk of pest and disease. Probit regression is also used to discern the underlying factors affecting risk attitudes and perceptions. The results show that farmers' age, total family income, distance from the farm gate to the main market, savings, agricultural credit, off-farm income, access to information, and frequent contact with extension officers are significant determinants that affect farmers' risk attitudes and perceptions. This study provides in-depth insights for farmers, extension service providers, and agricultural planners on the real situation of farmers in developing countries, particularly those where crop insurance is still uncommon.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors Influencing Rice Farmers’ Risk Attitudes and Perceptions in Bangladesh amid Environmental and Climatic Issues

Islam¹,

Rahman²,

Sarker³

et al. 2020

Pol. J. Environ. Stud.

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“…Another study conducted by [79] observed that just after the change point, reduction in Soan River runoff was due to climate change and land cover changes. Similarly, a study conducted by [80] on the Tarbela catchment found that watershed characteristics play a major role in changes in runoff and climate change relatively contributes less as compared to watershed characteristics (anthropogenic activities). Moreover, [97] observed that watershed characteristics were evident for the increased runoff in the Simly watershed.…”

Section: Comparison With Other River Basinsmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…The results of their study were found similar to our findings. Another study performed by [80] determined that the relative contribution of climate change and land-use change in streamflow variations in the Tarbela catchment was 39.3% and 60.7%, respectively. Similarly, [81] determined that the impacts of human activities on runoff variability of the Dongjiang River basin were obvious and their findings were found consistent with our findings of the current study.…”

Section: Runoff Response To Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities Using Different Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological Response of the Kunhar River Basin in Pakistan to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on Runoff Characteristics

Saifullah

Adnan

Zaman

et al. 2021

Water

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Pakistan is amongst the most water-stressed countries in the world, with changes in the frequency of extreme events, notably droughts, under climate change expected to further increase water scarcity. This study examines the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the runoff of the Kunhar River Basin (KRB) in Pakistan. The Mann Kendall (MK) test detected statistically significant increasing trends in both precipitation and evapotranspiration during the period 1971–2010 over the basin, but with the lack of a statistically significant trend in runoff over the same time-period. Then, a change-point analysis identified changes in the temporal behavior of the annual runoff time series in 1996. Hence, the time series was divided into two time periods, i.e., prior to and after that change: 1971–1996 and 1997–2010, respectively. For the time-period prior to the change point, the analysis revealed a statistically significant increasing trend in precipitation, which is also reflected in the runoff time series, and a decreasing trend in evapotranspiration, albeit lacking statistical significance, was observed. After 1996, however, increasing trends in precipitation and runoff were detected, but the former lacked statistical significance, while no trend in evapotranspiration was noted. Through a hydrological modelling approach reconstructing the natural runoff of the KRB, a 16.1 m3/s (or 15.3%) reduction in the mean flow in the KRB was simulated for the period 1997–2010 in comparison to the period 1971–1996. The trend analyses and modeling study suggest the importance of anthropogenic activities on the variability of runoff over KRB since 1996. The changes in streamflow caused by irrigation, urbanization, and recreational activities, in addition to climate change, have influenced the regional water resources, and there is consequently an urgent need to adapt existing practices for the water requirements of the domestic, agricultural and energy sector to continue being met in the future.

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“…Large numbers of studies have been carried out regarding the methods of LULCC over Asian regions (Hasan et al, 2021;Lin et al, 2021;Malek & Verburg, 2020;Ullah et al, 2019;Yohannes et al, 2021). Ullah et al (2019) Many studies have been conducted regarding regional LULC and their impacts on the vegetation covers in Pakistan (M. Ali et al, 2011;Babur et al, 2016;Mahmood et al, 2016;Shahid et al, 2018;Shahid et al, 2020;Shaukat et al, 2020;Ullah et al, 2019). Shakir et al (2010) indicated that variation in LULC area is mainly linked with river flows and soil erosion over the arid regions of Pakistan.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many studies have been conducted regarding regional LULC and their impacts on the vegetation covers in Pakistan (M. Ali et al, 2011; Babur et al, 2016; Mahmood et al, 2016; Shahid et al, 2018; Shahid et al, 2020; Shaukat et al, 2020; Ullah et al, 2019). Shakir et al (2010) indicated that variation in LULC area is mainly linked with river flows and soil erosion over the arid regions of Pakistan.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land‐use change impacts on soil and vegetation attributes in the Kanshi River basin, Potohar Plateau, Pakistan

et al. 2022

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Soil erosion and land degradation have intensified recently, resulting from large‐scale land‐use and land cover (LULC) change, deforestation and farm mechanization. This phenomenon motivates the rationale for the assessment of such land‐use changes and their impacts on soil and vegetation in the Kanshi River basin using various remote sensing techniques between 1987–2019. The image classification enabled the identification of dry and highland zones. It was observed that around 17% of natural vegetation cover disappeared and was converted into agricultural land. Significant increase in extensive agricultural practices, population growth, settlement, and the brick industry have increased soil erosion and changed the landscape of the Kanshi region during 1987–2019. Further, we classify gully erosion, rill erosion, sprinkle erosion, and sheet erosion have all been found at rates of 43%, 27%, 9%, and 21%, respectively. Similarly, soil classes in 2019 were doubled, with Sambrial association (1%), Rajar complex (36%), Dhulian association (15%), Gullied (15%), Missa complex, Rough mountainous (2%) and Rough broken (17%), compared to four classes in 1987: Gullied, Missa complex, rough broken land, and Torrent bed land. Whereas in 1987, four types of soils were observed. The recorded soil series had a limited water holding capacity and were well drained. Soil erosion is a natural and inevitable phenomenon; however, its intensity can be reduced by appropriate water resource management in this basin.

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Quantitative Contribution of Climate Change and Land Use Change to Runoff in Tarbela Catchment, Pakistan

Cited by 8 publications

References 21 publications

Factors Influencing Rice Farmers’ Risk Attitudes and Perceptions in Bangladesh amid Environmental and Climatic Issues

Factors Influencing Rice Farmers’ Risk Attitudes and Perceptions in Bangladesh amid Environmental and Climatic Issues

Hydrological Response of the Kunhar River Basin in Pakistan to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on Runoff Characteristics

Land‐use change impacts on soil and vegetation attributes in the Kanshi River basin, Potohar Plateau, Pakistan

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