Quantifying the effects of pesticide exposure on annual reproductive success of birds

Etterson, Matthew A.; Bennett, Richard S.

doi:10.1002/ieam.1450

Cited by 26 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Further, risk projections also differed among species exposed to the same insecticide. Results from the TIM/MCnest model offer additional insight, compared to RQs, when information about the magnitude of risk or the probability of adverse effects [17,42,43] is needed for higher tier risk assessments. Another important advantage of the model we describe here is that it allows risk assessors to rationally combine both acute and chronic effects into a single unified measure of risk (percent reduction in annual fecundity) that gives appropriate weights to acute versus chronic effects.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This methodological need has long been identified [45–47], but has been difficult to implement [43], especially given the limitations to standard toxicity data [16,17,42]. The model does so by translating standard toxicity data into endpoints that are relevant to life cycles of birds.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Markov chain nest productivity model (MCnest) is a mechanistic model that estimates declines in reproductive success for temperate zone land birds during the breeding season [16,17]. The model uses a Markovian transition matrix [24] to follow a standard algorithm [25] of nest establishment, survival, failure, and re-nesting up to the end of a typical breeding season.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For higher tier avian risk assessments, OPP uses the Terrestrial Investigation Model (TIM, v.3.0) [15], a probabilistic model that focuses on acute exposures to birds. For chronic risks, OPP uses the Markov Chain Nest Productivity Model (MCnest) [16, 17], a mechanistic model of avian breeding, to assess potential declines in the annual reproductive success of exposed bird populations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mechanistic modeling of insecticide risks to breeding birds in North American agroecosystems

2017

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Insecticide usage in the United States is ubiquitous in urban, suburban, and rural environments. There is accumulating evidence that insecticides adversely affect non-target wildlife species, including birds, causing mortality, reproductive impairment, and indirect effects through loss of prey base, and the type and magnitude of such effects differs by chemical class, or mode of action. In evaluating data for an insecticide registration application and for registration review, scientists at the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) assess the fate of the insecticide and the risk the insecticide poses to the environment and non-target wildlife. Current USEPA risk assessments for pesticides generally rely on endpoints from laboratory based toxicity studies focused on groups of individuals and do not directly assess population-level endpoints. In this paper, we present a mechanistic model, which allows risk assessors to estimate the effects of insecticide exposure on the survival and seasonal productivity of birds known to forage in agricultural fields during their breeding season. This model relies on individual-based toxicity data and translates effects into endpoints meaningful at the population level (i.e., magnitude of mortality and reproductive impairment). The model was created from two existing USEPA avian risk assessment models, the Terrestrial Investigation Model (TIM v.3.0) and the Markov Chain Nest Productivity model (MCnest). The integrated TIM/MCnest model was used to assess the relative risk of 12 insecticides applied via aerial spray to control corn pests on a suite of 31 avian species known to forage in cornfields in agroecosystems of the Midwest, USA. We found extensive differences in risk to birds among insecticides, with chlorpyrifos and malathion (organophosphates) generally posing the greatest risk, and bifenthrin and λ-cyhalothrin (pyrethroids) posing the least risk. Comparative sensitivity analysis across the 31 species showed that ecological trait parameters related to the timing of breeding and reproductive output per nest attempt offered the greatest explanatory power for predicting the magnitude of risk. An important advantage of TIM/MCnest is that it allows risk assessors to rationally combine both acute (lethal) and chronic (reproductive) effects into a single unified measure of risk.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mechanistic modeling of insecticide risks to breeding birds in North American agroecosystems

2017

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“…Etterson and Bennett (this issue) presented a model for estimating the effects of pesticide applications on the annual reproductive success of avian populations. The model, known as the Markov chain nest productivity model or MCnest, is based on a conceptual approach outlined in Bennett et al () that integrates avian toxicity data with information on the temporal relationship between the timing of pesticide applications and the timing and duration of the nesting season of bird species (currently available at http://www.epa.gov/med/Prods_Pubs/mcnest.htm).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Selecting surrogate endpoints for estimating pesticide effects on avian reproductive success

Bennett

Etterson

2013

Integr Environ Assess Manag

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A Markov chain nest productivity model (MCnest) has been developed for projecting the effects of a specific pesticide-use scenario on the annual reproductive success of avian species of concern. A critical element in MCnest is the use of surrogate endpoints, defined as measured endpoints from avian toxicity tests that represent specific types of effects possible in field populations at specific phases of a nesting attempt. In this article, we discuss the attributes of surrogate endpoints and provide guidance for selecting surrogates from existing avian laboratory tests as well as other possible sources. We also discuss some of the assumptions and uncertainties related to using surrogate endpoints to represent field effects. The process of explicitly considering how toxicity test results can be used to assess effects in the field helps identify uncertainties and data gaps that could be targeted in higher-tier risk assessments.

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Coupling toxicokinetic–toxicodynamic and population models for assessing aquatic ecological risks to time‐varying pesticide exposures

Thursby

Sappington

Etterson

2018

Enviro Toxic and Chemistry

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Population modeling evaluations of pesticide exposure time series were compared with aspects of a currently used risk assessment process. The US Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Pesticide Programs models daily aquatic 30-yr pesticide exposure distributions in its risk assessments, but does not routinely make full use of the information in such time series. We used mysid shrimp Americamysis bahia toxicity and demographic data to demonstrate the value of a toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic model coupled with a series of matrix population models in risk assessment refinements. This species is a small epibenthic marine crustacean routinely used in regulatory toxicity tests. We demonstrate how the model coupling can refine current risk assessments using only existing standard regulatory toxicity test results. Several exposure scenarios (each with the same initial risk characterization as determined by a more traditional organism-based approach) were created within which population modeling documented risks different from those of assessments based on the traditional approach. We also present different acute and chronic toxicity data scenarios by which toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic coupled with population modeling can distinguish responses that traditional risk evaluations are not designed to detect. Our results reinforce the benefits of this type of modeling in risk evaluations, especially related to time-varying exposure concentrations. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:2633-2644. Published 2018 Wiley Periodicals Inc. on behalf of SETAC. This article is a US government work and, as such, is in the public domain in the United States of America.

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Quantifying the effects of pesticide exposure on annual reproductive success of birds

Cited by 26 publications

References 16 publications

Mechanistic modeling of insecticide risks to breeding birds in North American agroecosystems

Mechanistic modeling of insecticide risks to breeding birds in North American agroecosystems

Selecting surrogate endpoints for estimating pesticide effects on avian reproductive success

Coupling toxicokinetic–toxicodynamic and population models for assessing aquatic ecological risks to time‐varying pesticide exposures

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