Ecological risk assessors face increasing demands to assess more chemicals, with greater speed and accuracy, and to do so using fewer resources and experimental animals. New approaches in biological and computational sciences may be able to generate mechanistic information that could help in meeting these challenges. However, to use mechanistic data to support chemical assessments, there is a need for effective translation of this information into endpoints meaningful to ecological risk-effects on survival, development, and reproduction in individual organisms and, by extension, impacts on populations. Here we discuss a framework designed for this purpose, the adverse outcome pathway (AOP). An AOP is a conceptual construct that portrays existing knowledge concerning the linkage between a direct molecular initiating event and an adverse outcome at a biological level of organization relevant to risk assessment. The practical utility of AOPs for ecological risk assessment of chemicals is illustrated using five case examples. The examples demonstrate how the AOP concept can focus toxicity testing in terms of species and endpoint selection, enhance across-chemical extrapolation, and support prediction of mixture effects. The examples also show how AOPs facilitate use of molecular or biochemical endpoints (sometimes referred to as biomarkers) for forecasting chemical impacts on individuals and populations. In the concluding sections of the paper, we discuss how AOPs can help to guide research that supports chemical risk assessments and advocate for the incorporation of this approach into a broader systems biology framework.

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The long-term risks of pesticides to wildlife in the EU currently are assessed by comparing the lowest no-observed-effect concentration (NOEC) determined from the suite of endpoints measured in existing avian and mammalian laboratory reproduction tests with estimated exposure concentrations by calculating Toxicity to Exposure Ratios (TERs). Regulatory authorities experience difficulties when assessing long-term risks because of the lack of accepted methods to improve the ecological realism of exposure and toxicity estimates and understand risks at a population level. This paper describes an approach for interpreting existing avian and mammalian toxicity test data that divides breeding cycles into several discrete phases and identifies specific test endpoints as indicators of direct pesticide effects possible at each phase. Based on the distribution of breeding initiation dates for a species of concern and the dates of pesticide applications, this approach compares the phase-specific toxicity endpoint with the expected pesticide exposure levels during each of the breeding phases. The fate of each breeding attempt is determined through a series of decision points. The cumulative reproductive response of individuals in a breeding population based on this decision framework provides a means of examining the estimated risks over the course of the breeding season and deriving an overall metric of the impact of the pesticide on reproduction. Research needed to further improve the approach is discussed.

Sixty breeding pairs of captive American kestrels (Falco sparverius) were exposed to a range of sublethal dietary concentrations of mercury (Hg), in the form of methylmercuric chloride, and their subsequent reproduction was measured. Egg production, incubation performance, and the number and percent of eggs hatched decreased markedly between 3.3 and 4.6 mg/kg dry weight of Hg (1.2 and 1.7 mg/kg wet wt), in the diet. The number of fledglings and the percent of nestlings fledged were reduced markedly at 0.7 mg/kg dry weight (0.3 mg/kg wet wt) and declined further between 2 and 3.3 mg/kg dry weight (0.7 and 1.2 mg/kg wet wt). Dietary concentrations of >or=4.6 mg/kg dry weight (1.7 mg/kg wet wt) were associated with total fledging failure. The estimated decline in fledged young per pair (24%, Bayesian regression) for kestrels consuming 0.7 mg/kg dry weight (0.3 mg/ kg wet wt) raises concerns about population maintenance in areas subject to high inputs of anthropogenic Hg. Mercury concentrations in 20 second-laid eggs collected from all groups were related to dietary concentrations of Hg, and the Hg concentrations in 19 of these eggs were related to eggs laid and young fledged. Concentrations of Hg in eggs from the highest diet group (5.9 mg/kg dry wt; 2.2 mg/kg wet wt) were higher than egg concentrations reported for either wild birds or for captive birds (nonraptors) fed dry commercial food containing 5 mg/kg methylmercury. Accumulation ratios of Hg from diets to eggs were higher than those reported for feeding studies with other species.

Long term exposure of skylarks to a fictitious insecticide and of wood mice to a fictitious fungicide were modelled probabilistically in a Monte Carlo simulation. Within the same simulation the consequences of exposure to pesticides on reproductive success were modelled using the toxicity-exposure-linking rules developed by R.S. Bennet et al. (2005) and the interspecies extrapolation factors suggested by R. Luttik et al. (2005). We built models to reflect a range of scenarios and as a result were able to show how exposure to pesticide might alter the number of individuals engaged in any given phase of the breeding cycle at any given time and predict the numbers of new adults at the season's end.

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In the European Union, first-tier assessment of the long-term risk to birds and mammals from pesticides is based on calculation of a deterministic long-term toxicity/exposure ratio (TER(lt)). The ratio is developed from generic herbivores and insectivores and applied to all species. This paper describes two case studies that implement proposed improvements to the way long-term risk is assessed. These refined methods require calculation of a TER for each of five identified phases of reproduction (phase-specific TERs) and use of adjusted No Observed Effect Levels (NOELs) to incorporate variation in species sensitivity to pesticides. They also involve progressive refinement of the exposure estimate so that it applies to particular species, rather than generic indicators, and relates spraying date to onset of reproduction. The effect of using these new methods on the assessment of risk is described. Each refinement did not necessarily alter the calculated TER value in a way that was either predictable or consistent across both case studies. However, use of adjusted NOELs always reduced TERs, and relating spraying date to onset of reproduction increased most phase-specific TERs. The case studies suggested that the current first-tier TER(lt )assessment may underestimate risk in some circumstances and that phase-specific assessments can help identify appropriate risk-reduction measures. The way in which deterministic phase-specific assessments can currently be implemented to enhance first-tier assessment is outlined.

The use of sequential measurements of plasma cholinesterase (ChE) activity for monitoring exposure to organophosphorus pesticides was investigated in the mallard (Anus plutyrhynchos). At the onset of incubation, birds were assigned to treated (400 ppm methyl parathion in the diet), pair-fed (same daily food allotment on a g/kg/d basis as consumed by the treated bird of the pair), control or nonincubating control groups. Blood samples were collected weekly during egglaying and every 3 d during incubation periods. Both plasma and brain samples were taken on day 24 of incubation. Plasma ChE was more variable than brain ChE among the birds and there were no significant correlations ( p > 0.05) between plasma and brain samples within treatment groups.Reduced food consumption during incubation did not affect plasma ChE activity ( p = 0.77). Birds that abandoned their nests had significantly increased (paired t = -2.39, d.f. = 9, p < 0.05) ChE activity at the time of abandonment. There were significant differences ( p < 0.01) in plasma ChE activity between untreated birds, but within-bird variation was 2 and 11 times less than betweenbird variation during egg-laying and incubation, respectively. Methyl parathion significantly ( p < 0.0001) reduced plasma ChE activity. Measurement of plasma ChE activity provides a noninvasive, nonlethal technique for assessing the exposure of animals to ChE inhibitors.