Quantifying the climatological relationship between extratropical cyclone intensity and atmospheric precursors

Dacre, Helen; Gray, Suzanne L.

doi:10.1002/grl.50105

Cited by 38 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…6. This also suggests that the relationship between storm dynamics and latent heat release differs between the entrance and exit regions of the storm track, with the modification of cyclogenesis by condensation playing an important role in the exit region, consistent with the results of Dacre and Gray (2013). The warming-induced response found at low resolution is again amplified at higher resolution along the U.S. East Coast as well as in the subtropical region in the middle of the storm track, where the EKE does not increase.…”

Section: B Diabatic Influencesupporting

confidence: 86%

North Atlantic Storm-Track Sensitivity to Warming Increases with Model Resolution

2015

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Mesoscale condensational heating can increase the sensitivity of modeled extratropical cyclogenesis to horizontal resolution. Here a pseudo global warming experiment is presented to investigate how this heatingenhanced sensitivity to resolution changes in a warmer and thus moister atmosphere. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with 120-and 20-km grid spacing is used to simulate current and future climates. It is found that the North Atlantic storm-track response to global warming is amplified at the higher model resolution. The most dramatic changes occur over the northeastern Atlantic, where resolution typical of current general circulation models (GCMs) results in a smaller global warming response in comparison with that in the 20-km simulations. These results suggest that caution is warranted when interpreting projections from coarse-resolution GCMs of future cyclone activity over the northeastern Atlantic.

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Section: B Diabatic Influencesupporting

confidence: 86%

North Atlantic Storm-Track Sensitivity to Warming Increases with Model Resolution

2015

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“…In a climatological study, Campa and Wernli (2012) showed that the amplitude of the upper-level, low-level, and surface positive PV anomalies tend to be stronger in intense than in weak cyclones. In the eastern North Atlantic, Dacre and Gray (2013) found a significant sensitivity of cyclone intensity after 48 h to the presence of a diabatically produced midlevel PV anomaly at the initial time. They suggested the PV anomaly to be related to diabatic processes within the WCB-however, without explicitly identifying the WCB by means of strongly ascending trajectories.…”

Section: B Diabatic Processes In Real Cyclonesmentioning

confidence: 89%

“…For the climatological analyses, we will use composite techniques, which have proven to be insightful to examine the common characteristics of particular types of cyclones (e.g., Field and Wood 2007;Bengtsson et al 2009;Catto et al 2010;Dacre et al 2012).…”

Section: Objectives and Structure Of This Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Warm Conveyor Belts for the Intensification of Extratropical Cyclones in Northern Hemisphere Winter

Binder

Boettcher

Joos

et al. 2016

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

106

135

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The role of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) and their associated positive low-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies are investigated for extratropical cyclones in Northern Hemisphere winter, using ERA-Interim and composite techniques. The Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.68 implies a moderate to strong correlation between cyclone intensification and WCB strength. Hereby, cyclone intensification is quantified by the normalized maximum 24-h central sea level pressure deepening and WCB strength by the WCB air mass associated with the cyclone's 24-h period of strongest deepening. Explosively intensifying cyclones typically have strong WCBs and pronounced WCB-related PV production in the cyclone center; they are associated with a WCB of type W2, which ascends close to the cyclone center. Cyclones with similar WCB strength but weak intensification are either diabatic Rossby waves, which do not interact with an upper-level disturbance, or cyclones where much of the WCB-related PV production occurs far from the cyclone center and thereby does not contribute strongly to cyclone deepening (WCB of type W1, which ascends mainly along the cold front). The category of explosively intensifying cyclones with weak WCBs is inhomogeneous but often characterized by a very low tropopause or latent heating independent of WCBs. These findings reveal that (i) diabatic PV production in WCBs is essential for the intensification of many explosive cyclones, (ii) the importance of WCBs for cyclone development strongly depends on the location of the PV production relative to the cyclone center, and (iii) a minority of explosive cyclones is not associated with WCBs.

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“…Our analysis provides an area‐integrated view of cyclone changes across the storm tracks. The recent studies of Dacre and Gray [] and Ludwig et al [] suggest that particular types of cyclones may be especially sensitive to increases in latent heat release, and this is not necessarily inconsistent with the results presented here.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extratropical cyclones in a warmer, moister climate: A recent Atlantic analogue

Woollings

Hodges

et al. 2014

Geophysical Research Letters

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Current climate model projections do not exhibit a large change in the intensity of extratropical cyclones. However, there are concerns that current models represent moist processes poorly, and this provides motivation for investigating observational evidence for how cyclones behave in warmer climates. In the North Atlantic in particular, recent decades provide a clear contrast between warm and cold climates due to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. In this paper we investigate these periods as analogues which may provide a guide to future cyclone behavior. While temperature and moisture rise in recent warm periods as in the projections, differences in energetics and temperature gradients imply that these periods are only partial analogues. The main result from current reanalyses is that while increased cyclone-associated precipitation is seen in the recent warm periods, there is no robust evidence of an increase in cyclone intensity by other measures, such as maximum wind speed or vorticity. A set of low-and high-resolution model simulations are also studied, suggesting that changes in cyclone intensity may be different in higher-resolution reanalyses.

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Quantifying the climatological relationship between extratropical cyclone intensity and atmospheric precursors

Cited by 38 publications

References 24 publications

North Atlantic Storm-Track Sensitivity to Warming Increases with Model Resolution

North Atlantic Storm-Track Sensitivity to Warming Increases with Model Resolution

The Role of Warm Conveyor Belts for the Intensification of Extratropical Cyclones in Northern Hemisphere Winter

Extratropical cyclones in a warmer, moister climate: A recent Atlantic analogue

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