North Atlantic Storm-Track Sensitivity to Warming Increases with Model Resolution

Willison, Jeff; Robinson, Walter A.; Lackmann, Gary M.

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00715.1

Cited by 61 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…Only the IBTrACS values for the 10 simulated years (Table 1) are considered for comparison. Consistent with similar studies (e.g., Murakami et al, 2015;Roberts et al, 2015;Yamada et al, 2017), model storms are generally weaker than observed in terms of maximum 10 m wind speed; several simulated storms do, however, attain a minimum SLP of less than 900 hPa (Fig. 7).…”

Section: Strengthsupporting

confidence: 89%

“…A limitation of PGW case studies is the inability to study the frequency of occurrence of such events. To alleviate this limitation, some investigators have conducted long-duration regional PGW simulations (e.g., Ban et al, 2014;Willison et al, 2015;Liu et al, 2017), which allow for analysis of statistical changes extending beyond the case study of a single event. All regional PGW experiments, however, are limited by the need to impose lateral boundary conditions, which reduces the dynamical freedom of the simulations.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Given recent advances in computational power and data storage, several modeling groups have performed long-term high-resolution global simulations, both with atmosphereonly and coupled atmosphere-ocean configurations (e.g., Small et al, 2014;Kodama et al, 2015;Murakami et al, 2015;Roberts et al, 2015 and references therein;Haarsma et al, 2016;Yamada et al, 2017). Models that include coupling between the atmosphere and ocean have the advantage of two-way communication, allowing the possibility of realistic atmosphere-ocean interactions.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Evaluation of a unique approach to high-resolution climate modeling using the Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) version 5.1

2019

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We present multi-seasonal simulations representative of present-day and future environments using the global Model for Prediction Across Scales -Atmosphere (MPAS-A) version 5.1 with high resolution (15 km) throughout the Northern Hemisphere. We select 10 simulation years with varying phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and integrate each for 14.5 months. We use analyzed sea surface temperature (SST) patterns for present-day simulations. For the future climate simulations, we alter present-day SSTs by applying monthly-averaged temperature changes derived from a 20-member ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) following the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario. Daily sea ice fields, obtained from the monthly-averaged CMIP5 ensemble mean sea ice, are used for present-day and future simulations. The present-day simulations provide a reasonable reproduction of large-scale atmospheric features in the Northern Hemisphere such as the wintertime midlatitude storm tracks, uppertropospheric jets, and maritime sea-level pressure features as well as annual precipitation patterns across the tropics. The simulations also adequately represent tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics such as strength, spatial distribution, and seasonal cycles for most Northern Hemisphere basins. These results demonstrate the applicability of these model simulations for future studies examining climate change effects on various Northern Hemisphere phenomena, and, more generally, the utility of MPAS-A for studying climate change at spatial scales generally unachievable in GCMs.

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Section: Strengthsupporting

confidence: 89%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluation of a unique approach to high-resolution climate modeling using the Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) version 5.1

2019

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“…Although some recent studies have shown that model biases and uncertainties related to explosive cyclones and the storm track in CMIP models are passively affected by the large-scale environment (Nishii et al 2015;Harvey et al 2015;Seiler and Zwiers 2016), the present study suggests that the explosive cyclone biases can be a result of the interaction between explosive cyclones and the large-scale environment. In addition, the storm-track response to the SST anomalies is sensitive to the horizontal resolution of atmospheric models (Willison et al 2013(Willison et al , 2015Smirnov et al 2015). Therefore, multiresolution experiments with coordinated SST anomalies using multi-AGCMs and atmosphere-ocean coupled GCMs will contribute to better understanding the interaction among SST fronts, the storm track, and large-scale circulations in the climate system.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Storm-Track Response to SST Fronts in the Northwestern Pacific Region in an AGCM

2017

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The storm-track response to sea surface temperature (SST) fronts in the northwestern Pacific region is investigated using an atmospheric general circulation model with a 50-km horizontal resolution. The following two experiments are conducted: one with 0.258 daily SST data (CNTL) and the other with smoothed SSTs over an area covering SST fronts associated with the Kuroshio, the Kuroshio Extension, the Oyashio, and the subpolar front (SMTHK). The storm track estimated from the local deepening rate of surface pressure (LDR) exhibits a prominent peak in this region in CNTL in January, whereas the storm-track peak weakens and moves eastward in SMTHK. Storm-track differences between CNTL and SMTHK are only found in explosive deepening events with LDR larger than 1 hPa h 21. A diagnostic equation of LDR suggests that latent heat release associated with large-scale condensation contributes to the storm-track enhancement. The SST fronts also affect the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the northeastern Pacific Ocean. The jet stream in the upper troposphere tends to meander northward, which is associated with positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies in CNTL, whereas the jet stream flows zonally in SMTHK. A composite analysis for the northwestern Pacific SLP anomaly suggests that frequent explosive cyclone development in the northwestern Pacific in CNTL causes downstream positive SLP anomalies over the Gulf of Alaska. Cyclones in SMTHK developing over the northeastern Pacific enhance the moisture flux along the west coast of North America, increasing precipitation in that region.

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“…(6) (open circles) for extreme events over oceans and plains. The response of midlatitude storms to warming is strongly dependent on model resolution (Willison et al 2013(Willison et al , 2015. Fraction of the area in which grid-scale condensation is occurring at 500 hPa (A s ), and the mean squared moist and dry Brunt-Väisälä frequency (N 2 m and N 2 , respectively) at 500 hPa in the saturated and the unsaturated portions of a box 508 in latitude by 708 in longitude centered at the point with maximum precipitation in the composites shown in Fig.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivities of Extreme Precipitation to Global Warming Are Lower over Mountains than over Oceans and Plains

Shi

Durran

2016

Journal of Climate

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Climate-model simulations predict an intensification of extreme precipitation in almost all areas of the world under global warming. Local variations in the magnitude of this intensification are evident in these simulations, but most previous efforts to understand the factors responsible for the changes in extreme precipitation focused on zonal averages and neglected zonal variations, leading to uncertainties in the understanding and estimation of regional responses. Here the spatial heterogeneity of the warming-induced response of midlatitude extreme precipitation is studied in climate-model simulations with idealized orography on the western margins of otherwise flat continents. It is shown that the sensitivity of extreme precipitation to warming (i.e., its fractional rate of increase in intensity with global-mean surface temperature) is ;3% K 21 lower over the mountains than the oceans and plains. This difference in sensitivity is primarily produced by differences in the dynamics governing vertical ascent over the three regions. In these extreme events, mountain-wave dynamics control the moist ascent over the mountains, and the sensitivity of this ascent to global warming is mainly controlled by changes in upper-level dry static stability and the crossmountain winds. In contrast, midlatitude cyclone dynamics govern moist ascent over the oceans and plains. Ascending motions in intense midlatitude cyclones are sensitive to the ratio of the moist static stability in their saturated cores to the dry stability in surrounding regions. This ratio decreases in the warmer world, intensifying the maximum vertical velocities while reducing the horizontal extent of the regions of the rising air within the cyclone.

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North Atlantic Storm-Track Sensitivity to Warming Increases with Model Resolution

Cited by 61 publications

References 61 publications

Evaluation of a unique approach to high-resolution climate modeling using the Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) version 5.1

Evaluation of a unique approach to high-resolution climate modeling using the Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) version 5.1

Storm-Track Response to SST Fronts in the Northwestern Pacific Region in an AGCM

Sensitivities of Extreme Precipitation to Global Warming Are Lower over Mountains than over Oceans and Plains

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