Observations demonstrate that the radius of maximum winds in tropical cyclones (TCs) can vary by an order of magnitude; similar size differences are evident in other spatial measures of the wind field as well as in cloud and precipitation fields. Many TC impacts are related to storm size, yet the physical mechanisms that determine TC size are not well understood and have received limited research attention. Presented here is a hypothesis suggesting that one factor controlling TC size is the environmental relative humidity, to which the intensity and coverage of precipitation occurring outside the TC core is strongly sensitive. From a potential vorticity (PV) perspective, the lateral extent of the TC wind field is linked to the size and strength of the associated cyclonic PV anomalies. Latent heat release in outer rainbands can result in the diabatic lateral expansion of the cyclonic PV distribution and balanced wind field. Results of idealized numerical experiments are consistent with the hypothesized sensitivity of TC size to environmental humidity. Simulated TCs in dry environments exhibit reduced precipitation outside the TC core, a narrower PV distribution, and reduced lateral extension of the wind field relative to storms in more moist environments. The generation of diabatic PV in spiral bands is critical to lateral wind field expansion in the outer portion of numerically simulated tropical cyclones. Breaking vortex Rossby waves in the eyewall lead to an expansion of the eye and the weakening of inner-core PV gradients in the moist environment simulation. Feedback mechanisms involving surface fluxes and the efficiency of diabatic PV production with an expanding cyclonic wind field are discussed.

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to test the sensitivity of simulations of Hurricane Ivan (2004) to changes in horizontal grid spacing for grid lengths from 8 to 1 km. As resolution is increased, minimum central pressure decreases significantly (by 30 hPa from 8- to 1-km grid spacing), although this increase in intensity is not uniform across similar reductions in grid spacing, even when pressure fields are interpolated to a common grid. This implies that the additional strengthening of the simulated tropical cyclone (TC) at higher resolution is not attributable to sampling, but is due to changes in the representation of physical processes important to TC intensity. The most apparent changes in simulated TC structure with resolution occur near a grid length of 4 km. At 4-km grid spacing and below, polygonal eyewall segments appear, suggestive of breaking vortex Rossby waves. With sub-4-km grid lengths, localized, intense updraft cores within the eyewall are numerous and both polygonal and circular eyewall shapes appear regularly. Higher-resolution simulations produce a greater variety of shapes, transitioning more frequently between polygonal and circular eyewalls relative to lower-resolution simulations. It is hypothesized that this is because of the ability to resolve a greater range of wavenumbers in high-resolution simulations. Also, as resolution is increased, a broader range of updraft and downdraft velocities is present in the eyewall. These results suggest that grid spacing of 2 km or less is needed for representation of important physical processes in the TC eyewall. Grid-length and domain size suggestions for operational prediction are provided; for operational prediction, a grid length of 3 km or less is recommended.

Theoretical, observational, and modeling studies have established an important role for latent heating in midlatitude cyclone development. Models simulate some contribution from condensational heating to cyclogenesis, even with relatively coarse grid spacing (on the order of 100 km). Our goal is to more accurately assess the diabatic contribution to storm-track dynamics and cyclogenesis while bridging the gap between climate modeling and synoptic dynamics. This study uses Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) simulations with 120-and 20-km grid spacing to demonstrate the importance of resolving additional mesoscale features that are associated with intense precipitation and latent heat release within extratropical cyclones. Sensitivity to resolution is demonstrated first with a case study, followed by analyses of 10 simulated winters over the North Atlantic storm track. Potential vorticity diagnostics are employed to isolate the influences of latent heating on storm dynamics, and terms in the Lorenz energy cycle are analyzed to determine the resulting influences on the storm track. The authors find that the intensities of individual storms and their aggregate behavior in the storm track are strongly sensitive to horizontal resolution. An enhanced positive feedback between cyclone intensification and latent heat release is seen at higher resolution, resulting in a systematic increase in eddy intensity and a stronger storm track relative to the coarser simulations. These results have implications for general circulation models and their projections of climate change.

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