Quantifying the climate response to extreme land cover changes in Europe with a regional model

Cherubini, Francesco; Huang, Bo; Hu, Xiangping; Tölle, Merja; Strømman, Anders Hammer

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aac794

Cited by 38 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…This is most likely a result of small-scale shifts in precipitation in the simulations (e.g. a storm track shifting by a few kilometers would lead to neighboring increases and decreases in precipitation) and is consistent with high spatial variability in simulated precipitation changes under potential future land cover trajectories (Cherubini et al 2018). Similarly, summer precipitation deficit (evapotranspiration-precipitation), which integrates water consumption and supply as an indicator of drought, varies substantially at the grid-cell level primarily associated with changes in precipitation (R 2 =0.79) and to a lesser degree changes in ET (R 2 =0.11).…”

Section: Effects Of Lulc Change On Heat and Droughtsupporting

confidence: 67%

“…Our results, which are likely to be conservative estimates of LULC change, indicate that ongoing regional LULC changes occurring over decadal timescales have the potential to significantly influence drought and heat at continental scales. This is further evidence that LULC may be part of a portfolio of strategies to combat negative effects of climate change at regional scales (Cherubini et al 2018, Seneviratne et al 2018.…”

Section: Synthesizing Local and Remote Sensitivity To Lulc Changementioning

confidence: 67%

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Land use change impacts on European heat and drought: remote land-atmosphere feedbacks mitigated locally by shallow groundwater

Zipper

Keune

Kollet³

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Heat and drought are projected to increase globally but may be mitigated or exacerbated by land use/land cover (LULC) change. Here, we show that remote land-atmosphere feedbacks caused by historical European LULC change led to widespread changes in the energy and water balances, drought, and heat. Using a continental-scale bedrock-to-atmosphere model, we find that LULC change following the Soviet Union collapse and European Union formation may have substantially increased cloud cover and decreased incoming shortwave radiation in western Europe, even in locations where LULC did not change. These changes to the water and energy balances had spatially heterogeneous impacts on drought and heat, including drying in the Mediterranean and Eastern Europe regions. The response of the water and energy balances to remote feedbacks was lessened in areas with shallow groundwater, indicating that local-and continental-scale responses to LULC change are influenced by the coupling between the subsurface, land surface, and atmosphere.

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Section: Effects Of Lulc Change On Heat and Droughtsupporting

confidence: 67%

Section: Synthesizing Local and Remote Sensitivity To Lulc Changementioning

confidence: 67%

Land use change impacts on European heat and drought: remote land-atmosphere feedbacks mitigated locally by shallow groundwater

Zipper

Keune

Kollet³

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…These experiments are not meant to represent realistic scenarios, but they enable a systematic assessment and mapping of the biogeophysical impact of forestation across regions and seasons. Experiments of this type have already been performed using single regional or global climate models (Cherubini et al, 2018;Claussen et al, 2001;Davin and de Noblet-Ducoudré, 2010;Strandberg et al, 2018), but here they are performed for the first time using a multi-model ensemble approach, thus providing an unprecedented opportunity to assess uncertainties in the climate response to vegetation perturbations. In the following, we focus on the analysis of the surface energy balance and temperature response at the seasonal timescale, while future studies within LUCAS will explore further aspects (subdaily timescale and extreme events, land-atmosphere coupling, etc.).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Biogeophysical impacts of forestation in Europe: first results from the LUCAS (Land Use and Climate Across Scales) regional climate model intercomparison

et al. 2020

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Abstract. The Land Use and Climate Across Scales Flagship Pilot Study (LUCAS FPS) is a coordinated community effort to improve the integration of land use change (LUC) in regional climate models (RCMs) and to quantify the biogeophysical effects of LUC on local to regional climate in Europe. In the first phase of LUCAS, nine RCMs are used to explore the biogeophysical impacts of re-/afforestation over Europe: two idealized experiments representing respectively a non-forested and a maximally forested Europe are compared in order to quantify spatial and temporal variations in the regional climate sensitivity to forestation. We find some robust features in the simulated response to forestation. In particular, all models indicate a year-round decrease in surface albedo, which is most pronounced in winter and spring at high latitudes. This results in a winter warming effect, with values ranging from +0.2 to +1 K on average over Scandinavia depending on models. However, there are also a number of strongly diverging responses. For instance, there is no agreement on the sign of temperature changes in summer with some RCMs predicting a widespread cooling from forestation (well below −2 K in most regions), a widespread warming (around +2 K or above in most regions) or a mixed response. A large part of the inter-model spread is attributed to the representation of land processes. In particular, differences in the partitioning of sensible and latent heat are identified as a key source of uncertainty in summer. Atmospheric processes, such as changes in incoming radiation due to cloud cover feedbacks, also influence the simulated response in most seasons. In conclusion, the multi-model approach we use here has the potential to deliver more robust and reliable information to stakeholders involved in land use planning, as compared to results based on single models. However, given the contradictory responses identified, our results also show that there are still fundamental uncertainties that need to be tackled to better anticipate the possible intended or unintended consequences of LUC on regional climates.

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“…Subsequently, the ECMWF and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) developed a new-generation re-analysis to provide a long time cover observational validation dataset to assess climate model simulations of the 20th century, the ECMWF's first atmospheric re-analysis of the 20th century (ERA-20C; [16]) and the Twentieth Century Reanalysis v2 (20CR; [17]), respectively.The re-analysis datasets have been widely used in studying climate variability and climate change. It is reference data for climate model output [18][19][20] and driving data for regional climate models [21][22][23]. As mentioned, the re-analyses are produced by different organisations, employ various forecast model and data assimilation approaches.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The re-analysis datasets have been widely used in studying climate variability and climate change. It is reference data for climate model output [18][19][20] and driving data for regional climate models [21][22][23]. As mentioned, the re-analyses are produced by different organisations, employ various forecast model and data assimilation approaches.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

East Asian Summer Monsoon Representation in Re-Analysis Datasets

Huang

Cubasch

2018

Atmosphere

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Eight current re-analyses-NCEP/NCAR Re-analysis (NCEPI), NCEP/DOE Re-analysis (NCEPII), NCEP Climate Forecast System Re-analysis (CFSR), ECMWF Interim Re-analysis (ERA-Interim), Japanese 55-year Re-analysis (JRA-55), NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), NOAA Twentieth Century Re-analysis (20CR), and ECMWF's first atmospheric re-analysis of the 20th century (ERA-20C)-are assessed to clarify their quality in capturing the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall structure and its associated general circulation. They are found to present similar rainfall structures in East Asia, whereas they illustrate some differences in rainfall intensity, especially at lower latitudes. The third generation of re-analysis shows a better estimate of rainfall structure than that in the first and extended generation of re-analysis. Given the fact that the rainfall is ingested by the data assimilation system, the re-analysis cannot improve its production of rainfall quality. The mean sea level pressure is generated by re-analysis, showing a significant uncertainty over the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding area. In that region, the JRA-55 and MERRA have a negative bias (BIAS), while the other six re-analyses present a positive BIAS to the observed mean sea level pressure. The 20CR and the ERA-20C are ancillary datasets to analyse the EASM due to the fact that they only apply limit observations into the data assimilation system. These two re-analyses demonstrate a prominent difference from the observed winds in the upper-air. Although the upper level winds exhibit difference, the EASM index is consistent in the eight re-analyses, which are based upon the zonal wind over 850 hPa.Atmosphere 2018, 9, 235 2 of 17 been developed, which combine observation and geophysical fluid-dynamical models [6]. Because of the parameterisations for important physical processes (e.g., radiative transfer, convection, turbulent transfer, etc.), the model has its own uncertainty and biases to the real atmosphere. The re-analysis uses observations to constrain the model output to optimise the spatial-temporal coverage and accuracy [6].Since the early 1990s, several generations of atmospheric re-analyses have been produced at different organisations. The National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Reanalysis (NCEPI; [6]) is the original re-analysis effort. Then NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) updated the forecast model with better physical parameterisations and fixed the data assimilation errors to produce a new version of re-analysis (i.e., NCEPII; [7]). Both the NCEPI and NCEPII belong to the first generation of re-analysis. The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 45-year Reanalysis (ERA-40; [8]) and the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25; [9]) are the second-generation of re-analysis. These re-analysis datasets have the same data assimilation approach (i.e., 3D-Var; three-dimensional variational data assimilation) as in first-generat...

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Quantifying the climate response to extreme land cover changes in Europe with a regional model

Cited by 38 publications

References 67 publications

Land use change impacts on European heat and drought: remote land-atmosphere feedbacks mitigated locally by shallow groundwater

Land use change impacts on European heat and drought: remote land-atmosphere feedbacks mitigated locally by shallow groundwater

Biogeophysical impacts of forestation in Europe: first results from the LUCAS (Land Use and Climate Across Scales) regional climate model intercomparison

East Asian Summer Monsoon Representation in Re-Analysis Datasets

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