Quantifying processes contributing to marine hazards to inform coastal climate resilience assessments, demonstrated for the Caribbean Sea

Abstract

Abstract. Scientific evidence is critical to underpin the decisions associated with shoreline management, to build climate-resilient communities and infrastructure. We explore the role of waves, storm surges and sea level rise for the Caribbean region with a focus on coastal impacts in the eastern Caribbean islands. We simulate past extreme events and a worst-case scenario, modelling the storm surges and waves, suggesting a storm surge might reach 1.5 m, depending on the underwater topography. Coastal wave heights of up to 12 m offshore and up to 5 m near the coast of St Vincent are simulated with a regional wave model. We deliver probabilistic sea level projections for 2100, with a low-probability–high-impact estimate of possible sea level rise up to 2.2 m, exceeding the 1.8 m global estimate for the same scenario. We introduce a combined vulnerability index, which allows for a quantitative assessment of relative risk across the region, showing that sea level rise is the most important risk factor everywhere but wave impacts are important on windward coasts, increasing to the north, towards the main hurricane track. Our work provides quantitative evidence for policy-makers, scientists and local communities to actively prepare for and protect against climate change.

Community Perception and Adaptation to Climate Change in Coastal Areas of Mexico

“…In addition, it is crucial that the scientific community and government agencies commit to providing information regarding biotic and abiotic aspects of the coast gathering time series as long as possible in order to understand better the regional and local dynamics and interchanges and to improve the capacity of forecasting systems and future projections [30]. Systematic data collection on local damage and exposure conditions is also required to calibrate depth-damage curves, which can be conducted using surveys after inundation events [3].…”

“…Finally, it can be difficult to discern climate adaptation from other related activities, such as environmental disaster risk reduction or poverty alleviation, complicating the attribution of successful adaptation efforts to climate change and coasts simultaneously, as proposed by the integrated coastal zone management vision [11,28]. Globally, Mexico is among the most vulnerable countries in terms of coastal flooding in the face of a 1 m sea-level rise [8,29,30], with an estimated inland flood propagation of up to 50 and 60 km in the most low-lying areas [5], especially along the coasts of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The high population density, tourism infrastructure, rural communities living in poverty along its coasts and the great diversity of marine-coastal ecosystems make climate change one of Mexico's most important adverse impacts [25].…”

Tides at a coast

“…The relative risk at the coast from marine hazards can be quantitatively assessed using a combined vulnerability index (CBVI), as demonstrated for the Caribbean Sea by Jevrejeva et al (2020). A CBVI includes the external effects of tides, waves, sea level, and storm winds to calculate the exposure at the coast to these physical factors and provides evidence for coastal resilience planning.…”

The Paris Agreement and Climate Justice: Inequitable Impacts of Sea Level Rise Associated With Temperature Targets

“…Analysis of current SLR trends is complicated by sparse tide gauge locations and short observation periods (Holgate et al, 2013;Hsu & Velicogna, 2017;Palanisamy et al, 2012). In the Caribbean basin, the average SLR is in line with the global mean (Jevrejeva et al, 2020;Palanisamy et al, 2012), however regional variability is large with some places experiencing substantially higher rates (up to 5.3 mm/yr) (Torres & Tsimplis, 2013) and a recent rapid rise was detected (Ibrahim & Sun, 2020). In the western tropical Pacific SLR rates are up to 4 times the global average (Hamlington et al, 2020;Nurse et al, 2014).…”