The Paris Agreement and Climate Justice: Inequitable Impacts of Sea Level Rise Associated With Temperature Targets

Abstract

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are causing unprecedented changes to the climate. In 2015, at the United Nations (UN) Conference of the Parties in Paris, France, countries agreed to limit the global mean temperature (GMT) increase to 2°C above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. Due to the long‐term irreversibility of sea level rise (SLR), risks to island and coastal populations are not well encapsulated by the goal of limiting GMT warming by 2100. This review article investigates the climate justice implications of temperature targets in light of our increasing understanding of the spatially variable impact and long temporal commitment to rising seas. In particular we highlight the impact that SLR will have on island states and the role of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in UN climate negotiations. As a case study we review dual impacts from the Antarctic Ice Sheet under a changing climate: (a) recent climate and ice sheet modeling shows that Antarctic melt has the potential to cause rapid SLR with a distinct spatial pattern leading to AOSIS nations experiencing SLR at least 11% higher than the global average and up to 33% higher; and (b) future ice sheet melt will result in a negative feedback on GMT, thus delaying temperature rise. When considering these impacts in conjunction, justice concerns associated with the Paris Agreement are exacerbated.

The influence of realistic 3D mantle viscosity on Antarctica’s contribution to future global sea levels

“…4F ). Note that all simulations produce higher than average sea-level rise due to Antarctic ice loss throughout the next 500 years for all Small Island Developing States (also called Large Ocean States), in agreement with previous studies ( 46 , 47 ). This geographic vulnerability will be further amplified due to higher-than-average sea-level rise associated with Greenland ice loss [e.g., ( 47 )].…”

“…In many of these regions, when accounting for 3D viscoelastic Earth structure globally, sea-level rise due to Antarctic ice loss reaches up to 1.7 m for low-end projections under RCP2.6 and up to 19.5 m by 2500 for high-end projections. Our results further support recent findings ( 46 , 47 ) that low-latitude islands and coastal sites already being affected by sea-level rise will experience higher than average sea-level rise associated with Antarctic ice loss, regardless of the ice loss scenario. This finding highlights the climate injustice toward nations whose emissions are low, while their exposure and vulnerability to sea-level rise is high ( 46 ).…”

“…Our results further support recent findings ( 46 , 47 ) that low-latitude islands and coastal sites already being affected by sea-level rise will experience higher than average sea-level rise associated with Antarctic ice loss, regardless of the ice loss scenario. This finding highlights the climate injustice toward nations whose emissions are low, while their exposure and vulnerability to sea-level rise is high ( 46 ). We have found that the effect of GIA is to reduce the Antarctic contribution to global sea-level rise for low emissions and amplify it for high emissions.…”

Environmental Justice of Coastal Hazards: A Systematic Literature Review

“…In cases of managed retreat and planned relocation, reviewed papers found poor quality of relocated sites (10%) and instances of retreat and return, when a relocated coastal community left the coastal area and then returned to the area (6%). A few studies (3%) noted that a specific indirect effect of coastal hazards for small island states could be statelessness, by which loss of territorial land mass would result in the loss of statehood (Dorkenoo et al 2022;Sadai et al 2022).…”

“…Colonialism was mentioned in 10 percent of papers. In one article about small island states, Sadai et al (2022) explained how colonization and globalization reduced the once high adaptive capacity for environmental change (Barnett 2001;Barnett and Campbell 2010;Bordner et al 2020;Douglass and Cooper 2020;Nunn and Campbell 2020). Dorkenoo et al (2022) write that the unequal processes in which adaptation leads to protections for some and damages for others are driven by relationships of power that are rooted in colonial practices of domination and dispossession.…”