Quantifying net loss of global mangrove carbon stocks from 20 years of land cover change

Richards, Daniel R.; Thompson, Benjamin S.; Wijedasa, Lahiru S.

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-18118-z

Cited by 104 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 45 publications

(99 reference statements)

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…We assumed that future loss rates due to each of the five drivers were proportional to their historical contributions. Therefore, our predictions may overestimate emissions in regions where mangrove deforestation rates are slowing because of policy changes (Friess, Krauss, et al, 2020Richards et al, 2020). Changes in the magnitude of drivers of mangrove loss are F I G U R E 3 Emission reductions (Tg CO 2 eq ) that could be achieved from (a) management of agriculture/aquaculture and shore stabilisation in the West Coral Triangle and (b) decrease in erosion through shore stabilisation, mangrove protection to avoid clearing and restoration of mangroves affected by tropical storms in the Tropical Northwest Atlantic likely to occur in the future, implying that our assumption of linearity in predictions may not happen.…”

Section: Sensitivity Of Predictions To Input Data Sources and Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future carbon emissions from global mangrove forest loss

Adame

Connolly

Turschwell

et al. 2021

Global Change Biology

111

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Mangroves have among the highest carbon densities of any tropical forest. These 'blue carbon' ecosystems can store large amounts of carbon for long periods, and their protection reduces greenhouse gas emissions and supports climate change mitigation. Incorporating mangroves into Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement and their valuation on carbon markets requires predicting how the management of different land-uses can prevent future greenhouse gas emissions and increase CO 2 sequestration. We integrated comprehensive global datasets for carbon stocks, mangrove distribution, deforestation rates, and land-use change drivers into a predictive model of mangrove carbon emissions. We project emissions and foregone soil carbon sequestration potential under 'business as usual' rates of mangrove loss.Emissions from mangrove loss could reach 2391 Tg CO 2 eq by the end of the century, or 3392 Tg CO 2 eq when considering foregone soil carbon sequestration. The highest emissions were predicted in southeast and south Asia (West Coral Triangle, Sunda Shelf, and the Bay of Bengal) due to conversion to aquaculture or agriculture, followed by the Caribbean (Tropical Northwest Atlantic) due to clearing and erosion, and the This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Section: Sensitivity Of Predictions To Input Data Sources and Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future carbon emissions from global mangrove forest loss

Adame

Connolly

Turschwell

et al. 2021

Global Change Biology

111

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show abstract

“…However, we still need to better understand the patterns derived from the fragmentation process through multi-temporal analyses and high-resolution mapping efforts, which are urgently needed. These efforts would benefit from employing open-access satellite imagery, cloud-computing (e.g., Bhargava et al, 2020), or the available open access multitemporal global layers (e.g., Thomas et al, 2017;Bunting et al, 2018;Bryan-Brown et al, 2020;Richards et al, 2020). Efforts must concentrate around protected, urban and peri-urban areas, as well as on to assess the effectiveness of conservation efforts and to identify threats and deforestation hotspots.…”

Section: Mangroves As Fragmented Habitats In the Anthropocenementioning

confidence: 99%

Threatened Mangroves in the Anthropocene: Habitat Fragmentation in Urban Coastalscapes of Pelliciera spp. (Tetrameristaceae) in Northern South America

Blanco-Libreros

Ramírez-Ruiz

2021

Front. Mar. Sci.

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Mangroves are fragmented habitats thriving in human-dominated coastalscapes worldwide. They provide refuge to threatened plant species, such as the Neotropical Piñuelo Mangrove (formerly the monotypic Pelliciera genus, recently split into two species: P. rhizophorae and P. benthamii). However, little is known about the relationship between urbanization and the spatial configuration of mangrove habitat and how it would drive ecological and evolutionary changes in the small populations of Pelliciera spp. We used open data (e.g., land cover, mangrove cover) for 107 locations of Pelliciera spp. in Colombia (extant populations) to assess coastalscape structure and urbanization. We described coastalscape composition dynamics (for 2000 and 2010) and mangrove habitat configuration along a human-domination gradient, using landscape metrics. We computed an urban index to compare urbanization intensity among the study areas along the Caribbean coast and compared coastalscape structure and mangrove spatial metrics between basins (Caribbean and Pacific). The proportion of artificial surfaces was greater in the Caribbean than in the Pacific, but no temporal difference was found. The Caribbean basin exhibited a greater Urban Index, particularly in Cartagena and Urabá. Mangrove fragmentation was also greater in the Caribbean and it was influenced by the degree of urbanization. Mangrove area and core area were smaller in the Caribbean than in the Pacific, while cohesion was significantly lower in Cartagena than in other urban areas of the Caribbean. We propose a conceptual eco-evolutionary framework for linking mangrove patch reduction and isolation to demographic variables of Pelliciera spp. Edge effects are expected to affect birth and mortality rates in small patches. Small patches and small effective populations are expected to be more sensitive to novel biotic interactions, extreme weather, and gradual climate change. Isolation will also influence both emigration and immigration rates of propagules. We propose: (1) Assessing the conservation status of the two species, (2) setting monitoring programs of their populations of Pelliciera spp. and their surrounding coastalscapes (particularly in the Caribbean, (3) declaring protected areas, in wild and urban settings, to reduce mangrove fragmentation and urbanization.

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“…S5-S8). Therefore, our model may overestimate emissions in regions where mangrove deforestation rates are slowing because of policy changes Richards et al, 2020). We further assumed that future rates of loss due to each of the five drivers were proportional to their historical contributions.…”

Section: Sensitivity Of Predictions To Input Data Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future carbon emissions from global mangrove forest loss

Adame

Connolly

Turschwell

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Mangroves have among the highest carbon densities of any tropical forest. These “blue carbon” ecosystems can store large amounts of carbon for long periods, and their protection reduces greenhouse gas emissions and supports climate change mitigation. The incorporation of mangroves into Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement and their valuation on carbon markets requires predicting how the management of different land-uses can prevent future greenhouse gas emissions and increase CO2 sequestration. Management actions can reduce CO2 emissions and enhance sequestration, but should be guided by predictions of future emissions, not just carbon storage. We project emissions and forgone soil carbon sequestration potential caused by mangrove loss with comprehensive global datasets for carbon stocks, mangrove distribution, deforestation rates, and drivers of land-use change. Emissions from mangrove loss could reach 2,397 Tg CO2eq by the end of the century, or 3,401 Tg CO2eq when considering forgone carbon sequestration. The highest emissions were predicted in southeast and south Asia (West Coral Triangle, Sunda Shelf, and the Bay of Bengal) due to conversion to aquaculture or agriculture, followed by the Caribbean (Tropical Northwest Atlantic) due to clearing and erosion, and the Andaman coast (West Myanmar) and north Brazil due to erosion. Together, these six regions accounted for 90% of the total potential CO2eq future emissions. We highlight hotspots for future emissions and the land-use specfic management actions that could avoid them with appropriate policies and regulation.

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Quantifying net loss of global mangrove carbon stocks from 20 years of land cover change

Cited by 104 publications

References 45 publications

Future carbon emissions from global mangrove forest loss

Future carbon emissions from global mangrove forest loss

Threatened Mangroves in the Anthropocene: Habitat Fragmentation in Urban Coastalscapes of Pelliciera spp. (Tetrameristaceae) in Northern South America

Future carbon emissions from global mangrove forest loss

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