Future carbon emissions from global mangrove forest loss

Abstract

Mangroves have among the highest carbon densities of any tropical forest. These 'blue carbon' ecosystems can store large amounts of carbon for long periods, and their protection reduces greenhouse gas emissions and supports climate change mitigation. Incorporating mangroves into Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement and their valuation on carbon markets requires predicting how the management of different land-uses can prevent future greenhouse gas emissions and increase CO 2 sequestration. We integrated comprehensive global datasets for carbon stocks, mangrove distribution, deforestation rates, and land-use change drivers into a predictive model of mangrove carbon emissions. We project emissions and foregone soil carbon sequestration potential under 'business as usual' rates of mangrove loss.Emissions from mangrove loss could reach 2391 Tg CO 2 eq by the end of the century, or 3392 Tg CO 2 eq when considering foregone soil carbon sequestration. The highest emissions were predicted in southeast and south Asia (West Coral Triangle, Sunda Shelf, and the Bay of Bengal) due to conversion to aquaculture or agriculture, followed by the Caribbean (Tropical Northwest Atlantic) due to clearing and erosion, and the This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Biomass and vegetation carbon stock in mangrove forests of the Andaman Islands, India

“…Despite the three decades of conservation and rehabilitation efforts, overall, 3,363 km 2 (2.1%) of global mangrove area was lost between 2000 and 2016, at an average annual rate of 0.13% (Goldberg et al, 2020). Conversion of mangroves to aquaculture/agriculture remains the primary proximate driver of mangrove loss, which caused the conversion of 2,193.92 km 2 of mangroves from 2000 to 2016, while erosion is the second most important proximate driver of mangrove loss as it caused the loss of 927.87 km 2 during the same period (Adame et al, 2021). From 1996 to 2016, the global mangrove carbon stock declined by 158.4 million tonnes (Mt), a reduction of 1.8% of the stock present in 1996 viz., 8,627.6 Mt (Richards et al, 2020).…”

“…From 1996 to 2016, the global mangrove carbon stock declined by 158.4 million tonnes (Mt), a reduction of 1.8% of the stock present in 1996 viz., 8,627.6 Mt (Richards et al, 2020). Recently the global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from mangrove loss are projected to reach 2,397 Tg CO 2 eq by the end of the century (2020-2100) considering the global mean value (1.5 Mg C ha -1 year -1 ; Adame et al, 2021). It is pertinent to note that the coasts of the Bay of Bengal (369 Tg CO 2 eq) and Andaman Sea (161 Tg CO 2 eq) are identified as hot spots for the projected global emissions of GHGs from mangrove loss, and erosion is also identified as the major driver of mangrove loss (Adame et al 2021).…”

Blue carbon as a natural climate solution

“…Under business as usual operations, BCEs are expected to decline further. If protection is prioritized, however, then blue carbon trajectories should stabilize 112 and even reverse towards recovery 19 . Rehabilitation and restoration of BCEs will increase the contribution of blue carbon to natural climate solutions, as will planning for sea-level rise to maximize accommodation space for BCEs.…”

Brazilian Semi-Arid Mangroves-Associated Microbiome as Pools of Richness and Complexity in a Changing World

“…For instance, mangrove conversion to agriculture or aquaculture can result in greenhouse gas emissions of 1,067–3,003 Mg CO 2 e ha –1 , most of this emissions originated from soil carbon pool losses ( Kauffman et al, 2018a , b ). Indeed, under “business as usual” scenario rates of mangrove loss, emissions could reach 3,394 Tg CO 2 eq when considering foregone soil carbon sequestration ( Adame et al, 2021 ). Microbes are the main players that contribute to these and other mangrove ecosystem services ( Allard et al, 2020 ).…”