As human impacts increase in coastal regions, there is concern that critical habitats that provide the foundation of entire ecosystems are in decline. Seagrass meadows face growing threats such as poor water quality and coastal development. To determine the status of seagrass meadows over time, we reconstructed time series of meadow area from 175 studies that surveyed 547 sites around the world. We found an overall trajectory of decline in all seven bioregions with a global net loss of 5602 km2 (19.1% of surveyed meadow area) occurring since 1880. Declines have typically been non‐linear, with rapid and historical losses observed in several bioregions. The greatest net losses of area occurred in four bioregions (Tropical Atlantic, Temperate North Atlantic East, Temperate Southern Oceans and Tropical Indo‐Pacific), with declining trends being the slowest and most consistent in the latter two bioregions. In some bioregions, trends have recently stabilised or reversed. Losses, however, still outweigh gains. Despite consistent global declines, meadows show high variability in trajectories, within and across bioregions, highlighting the importance of local context. Studies identified 12 different drivers of meadow area change, with coastal development and water quality as the most commonly cited. Overall, however, attributions were primarily descriptive and only 10% of studies used inferential attributions. Although ours is the most comprehensive dataset to date, it still represents only one‐tenth of known global seagrass extent, with conspicuous historical and geographic biases in sampling. It therefore remains unclear whether the bioregional patterns of change documented here reflect changes in the world's unmonitored seagrass meadows. The variability in seagrass meadow trajectories, and the attribution of change to numerous drivers, suggest we urgently need to improve understanding of the causes of seagrass meadow loss if we are to improve local‐scale management.
Mangroves have among the highest carbon densities of any tropical forest. These 'blue carbon' ecosystems can store large amounts of carbon for long periods, and their protection reduces greenhouse gas emissions and supports climate change mitigation. Incorporating mangroves into Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement and their valuation on carbon markets requires predicting how the management of different land-uses can prevent future greenhouse gas emissions and increase CO 2 sequestration. We integrated comprehensive global datasets for carbon stocks, mangrove distribution, deforestation rates, and land-use change drivers into a predictive model of mangrove carbon emissions. We project emissions and foregone soil carbon sequestration potential under 'business as usual' rates of mangrove loss.Emissions from mangrove loss could reach 2391 Tg CO 2 eq by the end of the century, or 3392 Tg CO 2 eq when considering foregone soil carbon sequestration. The highest emissions were predicted in southeast and south Asia (West Coral Triangle, Sunda Shelf, and the Bay of Bengal) due to conversion to aquaculture or agriculture, followed by the Caribbean (Tropical Northwest Atlantic) due to clearing and erosion, and the This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Seagrass meadows are threatened by multiple pressures, jeopardizing the many benefits they provide to humanity and biodiversity, including climate regulation and food provision through fisheries production. Conservation of seagrass requires identification of the main pressures contributing to loss and the regions most at risk of ongoing loss. Here, we model trajectories of seagrass change at the global scale and show they are related to multiple anthropogenic pressures but that trajectories vary widely with seagrass life-history strategies. Rapidly declining trajectories of seagrass meadow extent (>25% loss from 2000 to 2010) were most strongly associated with high pressures from destructive demersal fishing and poor water quality. Conversely, seagrass meadow extent was more likely to be increasing when these two pressures were low. Meadows dominated by seagrasses with persistent life-history strategies tended to have slowly changing or stable trajectories, while those with opportunistic species were more variable, with a higher probability of either rapidly declining or rapidly increasing. Global predictions of regions most at risk for decline show high-risk areas in Europe, North America, Japan, and southeast Asia, including places where comprehensive long-term monitoring data are lacking. Our results highlight where seagrass loss may be occurring unnoticed and where urgent conservation interventions are required to reverse loss and sustain their essential services.
Predicting the impacts of multiple stressors is important for informing ecosystem management but is impeded by a lack of a general framework for predicting whether stressors interact synergistically, additively or antagonistically. Here, we use process‐based models to study how interactions generalise across three levels of biological organisation (physiological, population and consumer‐resource) for a two‐stressor experiment on a seagrass model system. We found that the same underlying processes could result in synergistic, additive or antagonistic interactions, with interaction type depending on initial conditions, experiment duration, stressor dynamics and consumer presence. Our results help explain why meta‐analyses of multiple stressor experimental results have struggled to identify predictors of consistently non‐additive interactions in the natural environment. Experiments run over extended temporal scales, with treatments across gradients of stressor magnitude, are needed to identify the processes that underpin how stressors interact and provide useful predictions to management.
LETTERSas well. With the rapid economic development in recent decades, construction of hydropower plants, coastal development, water pollution, and other human activities have destroyed the turtles' habitat (8, 9). Meanwhile, the invasion of alien turtles threatens the survival of native turtles (10). For example, the red-eared slider (Trachemys scripta elegans), one of the world's 100 most invasive species, is farmed in China and has been widely found in the wild, causing serious ecological risks (10).The Chinese government must urgently implement measures to protect wild turtles. Ecological education efforts should work to shift the expression of cultural love for turtles from consumption to conservation. The government should also strengthen the enforcement of the Wildlife Protection Law of China (11) to crack down on poaching and illegal trade of wild turtles and to prevent and control the invasion risk of alien turtles. Finally, despite their endangered status on the Red List (1), only one-third of China's wild turtles are currently included on the National Key-Protected Species List (12), an appendix of the Wildlife Protection Law of China that lists species in need of protection. To ensure legal and enforceable protection, China should update the Protected Species List to include all endangered turtle species.
At the crux of the debate over the global sustainability of fisheries is what society must do to prevent over‐exploitation and aid recovery of fisheries that have historically been over‐exploited. The focus of debates has been on controlling fishing pressure, and assessments have not considered that stock production may be affected by changes in fish habitat. Fish habitats are being modified by climate change, built infrastructure, destructive fishing practices and pollution. We conceptualize how the classification of stock status can be biased by habitat change. Habitat loss and degradation can result in either overly optimistic or overly conservative assessment of stock status. The classification of stock status depends on how habitat affects fish demography and what reference points management uses to assess status. Nearly half of the 418 stocks in a global stock assessment database use seagrass, mangroves, coral reefs and macroalgae habitats that have well‐documented trends. There is also considerable circumstantial evidence that habitat change has contributed to over‐exploitation or enhanced production of data‐poor fisheries, like inland and subsistence fisheries. Globally many habitats are in decline, so the role of habitat should be considered when assessing the global status of fisheries. New methods and global databases of habitat trends and use of habitats by fishery species are required to properly attribute causes of decline in fisheries and are likely to raise the profile of habitat protection as an important complementary aim for fisheries management.
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