Projecting the future distribution of European potential natural vegetation zones with a generalized, tree species‐based dynamic vegetation model

Abstract

Aim To assess the extent to which climate change might cause changes in potential natural vegetation (PNV) across Europe.Location Europe. MethodWe parameterized a generalized dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) for the most common European tree species, and, for the first time, modelled large-scale vegetation dynamics using a process-based model explicitly representing tree species, age cohorts, gap dynamics and biogeochemical cycles in a single framework. For projections, the model was driven with climate scenario data from two atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), downscaled to 10 ¥ 10′ spatial resolution (c. 18.5 ¥ 12 km at 50°N).Results At a general level, modelled present-day PNV corresponded better with an expert reconstruction of the PNV than most earlier plant functional type (PFT)-based simulations, but at a finer scale the model and the expert map showed substantial discrepancies in some areas. Simulations until 2085 showed considerable successional shifts in vegetation types in most areas: 31-42% of the total area of Europe was projected to be covered by a different vegetation type by the year 2085. In the long term, equilibrium changes are substantially larger: simulations with one climate scenario suggest that 76-80% of the European land surface could exist within another PNV if climate was stabilized by the end of the century and vegetation had unlimited time to achieve equilibrium with the new climate. 'Hotspots' of change include arctic and alpine ecosystems, where trees replace tundra in the model, and the transition zone between temperate broad-leaved and boreal conifer forest. In southern Europe, the model projected widespread shifts from forest to shrublands as a result of drought. Main conclusionsThe model presents a considerable advance in modelling dynamic changes in natural vegetation across Europe. Climate change might cause substantial changes in PNV across Europe, which should be considered in the management of reserves and forestry.

Modelling Tundra Vegetation Response to Recent Arctic Warming

“…For this study, we employed a customised, Arctic implementation of LPJ-GUESS, adopting an identical configuration to that described in McGuire et al (2012). Compared with the standard version of the model (Smith et al 2001;Hickler et al 2012), the Arctic version includes differentiated representations of processes operating in upland and peatland ecosystems of the tundra and taiga biomes, as well as PFTs characteristic of Arctic ecosystems: evergreen and deciduous shrubs, forbs, graminoids and bryophytes. The model includes an improved description of soil freezing processes (affecting water available to plants), based on Wania et al (2009).…”

“…LPJ-GUESS has been used and evaluated in numerous studies; see for example, Smith et al (2001Smith et al ( , 2008b, Hickler et al (2012) and references therein. For the tundra domain used here, McGuire et al (2012) show that LPJ-GUESS agreed with observations, inverse modelling and three other process-based ecosystem models in predicting that the Arctic land area (same domain as this study) was a stronger carbon sink in 2000-2006 than in 1990-1999, but a greater source to the atmosphere of CH 4 .…”

Forest conversion can help to mitigate impacts of climate change on common forest birds

“…Thus, the current distribution of coniferous forests was reduced stepwise until the "natural" conditions of the PNV were reached. We did not project or use information of the future distribution of the PNV (Hickler et al 2012). Deciduous forests increased from presently 9.5 to 21 % cover, and mixed forests increased from presently 6.3 to 9.4 % cover, at maximum.…”

Application and limitations of growth models for silvicultural purposes in heterogeneously structured forest in Sweden

“…Most ecological concepts, matrix and processbased models predicted an increase in spruce under continuous cover or close-to-nature forestry (Engelmark, Hytteborn 1999;Bollandsås 2007;Jönsson, Lagergren 2012). Two models predicted an increase in broadleaves: the first is a succession concept from Belgium; the second excluded, theoretically, any human influences in the future, and forecasted a replacement of spruce by beech, ash and oak in central south Sweden (Hickler et al 2012 (Jönsson, Lagergren 2012). The matrix model from Norway for forecasting tree species gave similar predictions, but for longer time periods.…”