Forest conversion can help to mitigate impacts of climate change on common forest birds

Abstract

Abstract& Key message We forecasted the effects of climate change and forest conversion options on common forest bird species by employing nation-wide high-resolution models. The results give details on how, where, and for which species forest conversion can mitigate climate change effects. & Context To mitigate effects of climate change on forests, alterations are required to convert forests into less vulnerable forest types. Coniferous forest that has been cultivated extensively outside its natural range has been identified as being more vulnerable to climate change effects than deciduous forest. & Aims The aim is to evaluate the effect of climate change mitigation measures on biodiversity due to forest conversion. & Methods We generated five forest scenarios for Germany in which we systematically replaced coniferous with deciduous forest types. We forecasted the effects of climate change and forest conversion options on 25 forest bird species by employing high-resolution models to predict their current and future ranges and population size.& Results Our simulations and modeling approach clearly predicted that climate change has a stronger impact on populations compared to distribution areas of common forest bird species. Forest conversion was predicted to amplify (15 species) and to weaken (10 species) the predicted gains and losses of species' population size due to climate change. Using the total bird population size to evaluate the mitigation effect of the different forest scenarios, forest conversion below an elevation of 500 m a.s.l. was predicted to mitigate climate change effects by 0.3 million breeding pairs (−10 %). The relatively weak mitigation effect was mainly due to few generalist species that inhabit coniferous forests in large abundances and did not profit from a conversion to deciduous forests. & Conclusion The results of the study give details on how, where, and for which species forest conversion can mitigate the anticipated effects of climate change.

Climate and land use changes will degrade the configuration of the landscape for titi monkeys in eastern Brazil

“…This divergence between the raw and both the barrier‐ and the forest‐filtered distribution models highlights the importance of detailed habitat data for improving estimates of a species' response to climate change (Guisan & Thuiller, ; Gottschalk & Reiners, ). For these primates, the current distribution of adequate habitats is a relevant constraint on the response of the species to climatic shifts.…”

“…Despite this acknowledged synergism, few studies have measured the landscape condition of species' distribution shifts in response to changes in climate and land use within a modelling framework (e.g. Hill et al ., ; Iverson et al ., ; Gottschalk & Reiners, ), especially in areas of high biodiversity and anthropogenic pressure.…”

Climate change and tree responses in Central European forests

“…In the second application, Gottschalk and Reiners (2015) projected bird species distribution and abundance for Germany by combining scenarios for both climate change and forest conversion (coniferous forests replaced by deciduous forest). While for climate-change-only scenarios, a majority of the 25 modelled bird species not only lost partly considerable percentages of suitable habitats but also shrank in population size.…”