Climate and land use changes will degrade the configuration of the landscape for titi monkeys in eastern Brazil

Abstract

Land use changes have profound effects on populations of Neotropical primates, and ongoing climate change is expected to aggravate this scenario. The titi monkeys from eastern Brazil (Callicebus personatus group) have been particularly affected by this process, with four of the five species now allocated to threatened conservation status categories. Here, we estimate the changes in the distribution of these titi monkeys caused by changes in both climate and land use. We also use demographic-based, functional landscape metrics to assess the magnitude of the change in landscape conditions for the distribution predicted for each species. We built species distribution models (SDMs) based on maximum entropy for current and future conditions (2070), allowing for different global circulation models and contrasting scenarios of glasshouse gas concentrations. We refined the SDMs using a high-resolution map of habitat remnants. We then calculated habitat availability and connectivity based on home-range size and the dispersal limitations of the individual, in the context of a predicted loss of 10% of forest cover in the future. The landscape configuration is predicted to be degraded for all species, regardless of the climatic settings. This include reductions in the total cover of forest remnants, patch size and functional connectivity. As the landscape configuration should deteriorate severely in the future for all species, the prevention of further loss of populations will only be achieved through habitat restoration and reconnection to counteract the negative effects for these and several other co-occurring species.

Does climate variability influence the demography of wild primates? Evidence from long‐term life‐history data in seven species

“…Our findings add to a relatively small but growing body of knowledge about the implications of climate change for nonhuman primates (Estrada et al., ; Graham, Matthews, & Turner, ; Korstjens & Hillyer, ). Much of the research in this area has focused on activity budget constraints (Korstjens, Lehmann, & Dunbar, ; Lehmann, Korstjens, & Dunbar, ; Majolo, McFarland, Young, & Qarro, ; McFarland, Barrett, Boner, Freeman, & Henzi, ) or species distribution models (Gouveia et al., ; Sesink Clee et al., ; Struebig et al., ). Few studies have examined climate effects on primate demography with the aim of understanding implications of future climate change (Campos et al., ; Dunham et al., , ; Wiederholt & Post, ), and none with the level of individual‐based detail and cross‐taxon scope of the present study.…”

Impending extinction crisis of the world’s primates: Why primates matter

“…Although some species may cope with these changes either by migrating to more suitable conditions or by adapting in situ, dispersal or range shift is not always possible and may have highly negative consequences (Supplementary Text) ( 76 ). Forest fragmentation induced by climate change can affect the availability of dispersal routes ( 77 ). Climate change may also force individuals out of protected areas, making them more vulnerable to hunting and other anthropogenic impacts ( 78 ), and range shifts among interacting species can affect food supplies and introduce new predators, pathogens, and/or competitors ( 79 ).…”

Identifying refugia and corridors under climate change conditions for the Sichuan snub‐nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Hubei Province, China

“…Outcomes of climate change challenge the conservation and persistence of many species (Gouveia et al, 2016), especially those considered to be endemic and threatened with higher extinction risks (Lambers, 2015). Climate change can lead to changes in characteristics of movement and species distribution (Lister, Brocki, & Ament, 2015), including range shifts, habitat contractions and expansions and fragmentation (Parmesan, 2006;Struebig et al, 2015).…”

“…The identification of refugia relies on recognition of the current and future distributions of species (Keppel et al, 2015). Habitat suitability assessments based on species distribution modeling (SDM) have been widely used to understand the species response to environmental changes (Gouveia et al, 2016) and to identify refugia (Keppel et al, 2012). Alternatively, climate change velocity can also be used to identify refugia, as these areas characterized by low climate change velocity (Keppel et al, 2015;Sandel et al, 2011).…”