Aim To assess the extent to which climate change might cause changes in potential natural vegetation (PNV) across Europe.Location Europe. MethodWe parameterized a generalized dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) for the most common European tree species, and, for the first time, modelled large-scale vegetation dynamics using a process-based model explicitly representing tree species, age cohorts, gap dynamics and biogeochemical cycles in a single framework. For projections, the model was driven with climate scenario data from two atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), downscaled to 10 ¥ 10′ spatial resolution (c. 18.5 ¥ 12 km at 50°N).Results At a general level, modelled present-day PNV corresponded better with an expert reconstruction of the PNV than most earlier plant functional type (PFT)-based simulations, but at a finer scale the model and the expert map showed substantial discrepancies in some areas. Simulations until 2085 showed considerable successional shifts in vegetation types in most areas: 31-42% of the total area of Europe was projected to be covered by a different vegetation type by the year 2085. In the long term, equilibrium changes are substantially larger: simulations with one climate scenario suggest that 76-80% of the European land surface could exist within another PNV if climate was stabilized by the end of the century and vegetation had unlimited time to achieve equilibrium with the new climate. 'Hotspots' of change include arctic and alpine ecosystems, where trees replace tundra in the model, and the transition zone between temperate broad-leaved and boreal conifer forest. In southern Europe, the model projected widespread shifts from forest to shrublands as a result of drought. Main conclusionsThe model presents a considerable advance in modelling dynamic changes in natural vegetation across Europe. Climate change might cause substantial changes in PNV across Europe, which should be considered in the management of reserves and forestry.

The dependent flora was surveyed on 20 trees at a 1.5-ha site in montane rain forest at 2600 m altitude in western Venezuela. Vascular species were recorded over the whole site and totalled 120 epiphytes, 21 climbers, 3 hemiepiphytes, 5 nomadic vines and 6 mistletoes. Non-vascular species were recorded within 95 sample plots and totalled 22 mosses, 66 liverworts and 46 macrolichens. The angiosperm species were restricted in geographical range to the Neotropics; 22.1% were endemic to Venezuela. Pteridophyte and bryophyte species were largely restricted to the Neotropics but few were endemic. Macrolichen species were mostly pantropical or cosmopolitan; only 9.6% were restricted to the Neotropics and none was endemic. Canonical Correspondence Analysis found the environmental variables most closely correlated with variation in community composition to be height above ground and a horizontal gradient reflecting differences in forest structure. The epiphytic vegetation was classified using Two-way Indicator Species Analysis into a Syrrhopodon gaudichaudii–Elaphoglossum hoffmannii group of lower trunks, an Omphalanthus filiformis–Maxillaria miniata group of intermediate levels and an Usnea–Parmotrema group of upper crowns. Diversity increased with height above ground; non-vascular diversity was greatest in upper crowns whereas vascular diversity was greatest at intermediate levels. Similarity levels were low among sample plots of the same community, whereas between-tree and between-stand similarities were relatively high.

Ecosystems have an essential role in providing services to humankind such as nutrient cycling, pest control, pollination, quality of life, and hydrological, atmospheric and climatic regulation. About 60% of the world's known ecosystems are currently used unsustainably. In Europe, the richness and abundance of biodiversity is undergoing significant decline, partly due to climate change. This article outlines the impacts of climate change on biodiversity by showing both observed and projected changes in the distribution and phenology of plants and animals (phenology refers to changes in the timing of seasonal events). The four major findings are the following. (1) Concerning the distribution of plant species, climate change is responsible for the observed northward and uphill distribution shifts of many European plant species. By the late 21st century, distributions of European plant species are projected to have shifted several hundred kilometres to the north, forests are likely to have contracted in the south and expanded in the north, and 60% of mountain plant species may face extinction. The rate of change will exceed the ability of many species to adapt. (2) Concerning plant phenology, the timing of seasonal events in plants is changing across Europe due to changes in climate conditions. For instance, 78% of leaf unfolding and flowering records show advancing trends. Between 1971 and 2000, the average advance of spring and summer was 2.5 days per decade. The pollen season starts on average 10 days earlier and is longer than 50 years ago. Trends in seasonal events will continue to advance as climate warming increases in the years and decades to come. (3) Concerning the distribution of animal species, Europe's birds, insects, and mammals are moving northwards and uphill in response to observed climate change. Rate of climate change, habitat fragmentation and other obstacles will impede the movement of many animal species. Distribution changes are projected to continue. Suitable climatic conditions for Europe's breeding birds are projected to shift nearly 550 km northeast by the end of the century. Projections for 120 native European mammals suggest that up to 9% face extinction during the 21st century. (4) Concerning animal phenology, climatic warming has caused advancement in the life cycles of many animal groups, including frogs spawning, birds nesting and the arrival of migrant birds and butterflies. Seasonal advancement is particularly strong and rapid in the Arctic. Breeding seasons are lengthening, allowing extra generations of temperature-sensitive insects such as butterflies, dragonflies and pest species to be produced during the year. These trends are projected to continue as climate warming increases in the decades to come. Populations may explode if the young are not exposed to normal predation pressures. Conversely, populations may crash if the emergence of vulnerable young is not in synchrony with their main food source or if shorter hibernation times lead to declines in body condition.

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