Projecting the current and future potential global distribution of<scp><i>Hyphantria cunea</i></scp>(Lepidoptera: Arctiidae) using CLIMEX

Ge, Xuezhen; He, Shanyong; Zhu, Chenyi; Wang, Tao; Zhang, Xu; Zong, Shixiang

doi:10.1002/ps.5083

Cited by 65 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…The IDW function of ArcGIS was used to map the EI difference of the pest and its host plants (Arecaceae) between future and historical climate conditions to assess the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution. Furthermore, the change in climatic suitability with latitude was determined based on the methods of Ge et al 52 Since the growth and development of insects rely on nutrition provided by host plants, the availability of host plants has a great influence on the distribution. Accordingly, the influence of host plant availability ( ) on the pest was evaluated based on the methods of Berzitis et al 26 The EI values for host plants belonging to Arecaceae (EI A ) were used to calculate host plant availability ( ); was calculated based on the following sigmoidal function:…”

Section: Analysis Of Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of climate change and host plant availability on the global distribution of Brontispa longissima (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Guo

et al. 2019

Pest Management Science

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BACKGROUND The coconut hispine beetle Brontispa longissima Gestro (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) is one of the most serious pests of the coconut palm, Cocos nucifera L. (Arecales: Arecaceae) and other palms. The invasion of B. longissima causes major economic and ecological losses worldwide. In this study, the impacts of climate change on the risk of spread were evaluated. CLIMEX was used to project its global potential distribution based on historical climate data (1987–2016) and simulated future climate data (2071–2100). RESULTS The distribution of B. longissima included each continent under historical and future climate conditions. However, climate suitability was predicted to decrease in most tropical and subtropical regions under a climate change scenario. Temperature was a more important determinant of the climatic suitability of the pest than relative humidity or precipitation. The availability of host plants (Arecaceae) only had a slight impact on climate suitability in some regions. CONCLUSION The projected potential distribution of B. longissima will help to determine the impacts of climate change and will provide supportive information for the development of management strategies to reduce future economic and ecological losses. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry

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Section: Analysis Of Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change and host plant availability on the global distribution of Brontispa longissima (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Guo

et al. 2019

Pest Management Science

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“…After comparing the results obtained using the two irrigation scenarios under historical climatic conditions, the composite (irrigation II) scenario was selected based on the similarity between the prediction and actual occurrences. By comparing areas with different EI values, the EI difference, and variation in EI among latitudes based on Ge et al [25] under different irrigation scenarios, the impacts of irrigation were further analyzed. The driving meteorological variables were also explored.…”

Section: Analytical Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As the CLIMEX output, the annual eco-climatic index (EI) indicates the climatic suitability of a given location for the target species and is estimated by an annual growth index (GI) and a stress index (SI). For a more detailed introduction of CLIMEX, please refer to the study of Ge et al [25].…”

Section: Research Model and Softwarementioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting the Potential Global Distribution of Carpomya vesuviana (Diptera: Tephritidae), Considering Climate Change and Irrigation Patterns

Guo

et al. 2019

Forests

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The ber fruit fly Carpomya vesuviana Costa (Diptera: Tephritidae) is the most destructive pests of Ziziphus spp. Carpomya vesuviana infestation causes great economic losses. We re-parameterized an existing CLIMEX model, and used the updated CliMond 30′ gridded resolution datasets within CLIMEX for the periods 1987–2016 and 2071–2100, representing historical and future climates, respectively, to predict the potential global distribution of the pest. Under the historical climate scenario, C. vesuviana had a wide climatically suitable distribution worldwide, from approximately 46° S to 50° N. Future climate change expanded the upper boundary of the potential distribution northward, and predicted that the pest would distribute approximately from 50° S to 60° N. Temperature was the primary determinant of the potential distribution of the pest among all driving variables. Irrigation was associated with a slight improvement in the climate favorability for the pest in some areas, including south-western North America, northern and southern Africa, and most of Oceania. The projections clarify the impacts of climate change on the potential global distribution of C. vesuviana, and are instructive for quarantine and management agencies for reducing economic damage caused by the fly and preventing expansion of C. vesuviana due to climate change.

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“…Thus, host plants were not considered in this study. In fact, biological properties of species differ among regions, but uniform parameters are typically used in studies, which affects the accuracy of projections [43]. Biological characteristics of species would also exhibit evolutionary changes over time, and these changes may impact the projected distributions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of the Long-Term Potential Distribution of Cryptorhynchus lapathi (L.) under Climate Change

Zhang

et al. 2019

Forests

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The poplar and willow borer, Cryptorhynchus lapathi (L.), is a severe worldwide quarantine pest that causes great economic, social, and ecological damage in Europe, North America, and Asia. CLIMEX4.0.0 was used to study the likely impact of climate change on the potential global distribution of C. lapathi based on existing (1987–2016) and predicted (2021–2040, 2041–2080, and 2081–2100) climate data. Future climate data were simulated based on global climate models from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under the RCP4.5 projection. The potential distribution of C. lapathi under historical climate conditions mainly includes North America, Africa, Europe, and Asia. Future global warming may cause a northward shift in the northern boundary of potential distribution. The total suitable area would increase by 2080–2100. Additionally, climatic suitability would change in large regions of the northern hemisphere and decrease in a small region of the southern hemisphere. The projected potential distribution will help determine the impacts of climate change and identify areas at risk of pest invasion in the future. In turn, this will help design and implement effective prevention measures for expanding pest populations, using natural enemies, microorganisms, and physical barriers in very favorable regions to impede the movement and oviposition of C. lapathi.

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Projecting the current and future potential global distribution ofHyphantria cunea(Lepidoptera: Arctiidae) using CLIMEX

Cited by 65 publications

References 18 publications

Impacts of climate change and host plant availability on the global distribution of Brontispa longissima (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Impacts of climate change and host plant availability on the global distribution of Brontispa longissima (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Projecting the Potential Global Distribution of Carpomya vesuviana (Diptera: Tephritidae), Considering Climate Change and Irrigation Patterns

Prediction of the Long-Term Potential Distribution of Cryptorhynchus lapathi (L.) under Climate Change

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