Projected changes in mid–high‐latitude Eurasian climate during boreal spring in a 1.5 and 2°C warmer world

Chen, Shangfeng; Wu, Renguang; Chen, Wen; Song, Linye

doi:10.1002/joc.6306

Cited by 4 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…Studies applied to other regions of the globe have identified patterns similar to those in this study. For example, projections indicate that Europe will be 1°C warmer than the global average for a global warming of 2°C (Sanderson et al ., 2017) and the springs in China will be 0.5°C warmer than the global average, both for 1.5 and 2°C (Chen et al ., 2020a). Furthermore, Shi et al .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, projections indicate that Europe will be 1 C warmer than the global average for a global warming of 2 C (Sanderson et al, 2017) and the springs in China will be 0.5 C warmer than the global average, both for 1.5 and 2 C (Chen et al, 2020a). Furthermore, Shi et al (2018) pointed out that northern China will experience faster and more intense warming compared to southern China.…”

Section: Patterns Of Temperature and Precipitation Change In South Am...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To this end, some studies have sought to analyse the regional impacts of 1.5 and 2°C global warming on a global scale (e.g., Aerenson et al ., 2018; IPCC, 2018) and in detail for some regions, such as for Australia (King et al ., 2017), United States (Karmalkar and Bradley, 2017), Eurasia (Chen et al ., 2019, 2020a), China (Chen et al ., 2017; Fu et al ., 2018; Sui et al ., 2018; Chen and Sun, 2019; Chen et al ., 2020b) and in Central‐Western Argentina (Rivera et al ., 2020). However, studies evaluating such impacts in detail across South America are still scarce.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected impacts of 1.5 and 2°C global warming on temperature and precipitation patterns in South America

Torres

Benassi

Martins

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Even if the thresholds set out in the Paris Agreement are reached, several impacts on the climate system are still inevitable, generating new vulnerabilities and amplifying those that already exist. In this sense, the objective of this work was to analyse the impact of a global warming of 1.5 and 2°C in the regional climatological patterns of the near‐surface air temperature and precipitation over South America, locating the most affected regions and briefly discussing the possible impacts to be faced on biodiversity and agriculture. The simulations and projections of 26 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 were used, forced in four different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Projections for 1.5 or 2°C global warming indicate a local increase even higher, of at least +0.5°C, in almost the entire South American continent. Regarding precipitation, a similar pattern was also found between the two thresholds of global warming. GCMs project an increase of about 100 mm year−1 in the southern region of Brazil and in the northern portion of the Brazilian Northeast, in northern Argentina, Uruguay, and parts of Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela; while the areas between the south of Chile and Argentina and the extreme north of South America show reductions of up to 150 mm year−1. In addition, both the temperature and precipitation patterns were practically similar between the four analysed RCPs scenarios. The results presented in this study indicate that even if the Paris Agreement is very successful, South America will still suffer several impacts and will need to take effective adaptation measures in the short term. This may have pervasive implications for the biodiversity and genetic resource base of the subcontinent, as well as may impair agricultural productivity or incur into considerable adaptation costs for the sector.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Patterns Of Temperature and Precipitation Change In South Am...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Projected impacts of 1.5 and 2°C global warming on temperature and precipitation patterns in South America

Torres

Benassi

Martins

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…All of these have been accompanied by large numbers of papers using climate models that postulate a range of scenarios to project future temperatures to the end of the 21st century (e.g., Jacob et al ., 2014; Kumar et al ., 2014; Gross et al ., 2019). Also frequent are papers estimating the consequences of temperature increases of certain values for other climatological characteristics or phenomena (e.g., Belda et al ., 2016; Naumann et al ., 2018; Xu et al ., 2019; Chen et al ., 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reflections of global warming in trends of temperature characteristics in the Czech Republic, 1961–2019

Zahradníček

Brázdil

Štěpánek

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This paper presents a comprehensive trend analysis of spatiotemporal temperature change patterns over the territory of what is now the Czech Republic (CR) during the 1961–2019 period. Employing daily mean temperatures (TAVG), maximum (TMAX) and minimum (TMIN) temperatures and diurnal temperature range (DTR), supplied by 133 stations of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, daily, monthly, seasonal and annual series were calculated for four altitudinal groups and the entire CR, for which linear trends were calculated and further analysed. For the purposes of relative trend comparison, the linear trends were also calculated from standardized series (mean 0, SD 1, in 1961–1990). All seasonal and annual TAVG, TMAX and TMIN series exhibit statistically significant increasing trends, with the exceptions of only a few cases for winter (DJF) and autumn (SON). DTR trends increase significantly in spring (MAM) and summer (JJA), but decrease in DJF and SON. The highest increases in trends occur in JJA and from stations at lower altitudes for groups I (up to 300 m asl) and II (301–600 m asl). Trends in JJA and SON TMIN are relatively higher than in TMAX, while the opposite holds true of DJF and MAM. Comparing the three decades after 1990 with the 1961–1990 normal, each decade was generally warmer than the previous period, with particularly enhanced warming in 2011–2019. This is also reflected in prominent increases in cumulative temperature sums throughout the year. The results obtained are discussed in the context of other European papers and with respect to explaining existing differences.

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“…Figure S1 shows differences in the central years and the global warming target periods for each RCP and GCM. The results indicate large spreads in the central year of 1.5 and 2.0 • C warming across all 5 GCMs under RCP4.5 relative to RCP8.5 (Zhang et al, 2019;Chen et al, 2020). The central year for the 1.5 • C (2.0 • C) warming condition derived from the MME of the 5 GCMs is 2028 (2051) under RCP4.…”

Section: No Gcm Resolution Institute Nationmentioning

confidence: 88%

Intensification characteristics of hydroclimatic extremes in the Asian monsoon region under 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming

Kim

Bae

2020

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Understanding the influence of global warming on regional hydroclimatic extremes is challenging. To reduce the potential risk of extremes under future climate states, assessing the change in extreme climate events is important, especially in Asia, due to spatial variability of climate and its seasonal variability. Here, the changes in hydroclimatic extremes are assessed over the Asian monsoon region under global mean temperature warming targets of 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C above preindustrial levels based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Analyses of the subregions classified using regional climate characteristics are performed based on the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) of five bias-corrected global climate models (GCMs). For runoff extremes, the hydrologic responses to 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C global warming targets are simulated based on the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model. Changes in temperature extremes show increasing warm extremes and decreasing cold extremes in all climate zones with strong robustness under global warming conditions. However, the hottest extreme temperatures occur more frequently in low-latitude regions with tropical climates. Changes in mean annual precipitation and mean annual runoff and low-runoff extremes represent the large spatial variations with weak robustness based on intermodel agreements. Global warming is expected to consistently intensify maximum extreme precipitation events (usually exceeding a 10 % increase in intensity under 2.0 ∘C of warming) in all climate zones. The precipitation change patterns directly contribute to the spatial extent and magnitude of the high-runoff extremes. Regardless of regional climate characteristics and RCPs, this behavior is expected to be enhanced under the 2.0 ∘C (compared with the 1.5 ∘C) warming scenario and increase the likelihood of flood risk (up to 10 %). More importantly, an extra 0.5 ∘C of global warming under two RCPs will amplify the change in hydroclimatic extremes on temperature, precipitation, and runoff with strong robustness, especially in cold (and polar) climate zones. The results of this study clearly show the consistent changes in regional hydroclimatic extremes related to temperature and high precipitation and suggest that hydroclimatic sensitivities can differ based on regional climate characteristics and type of extreme variables under warmer conditions over Asia.

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Projected changes in mid–high‐latitude Eurasian climate during boreal spring in a 1.5 and 2°C warmer world

Cited by 4 publications

References 51 publications

Projected impacts of 1.5 and 2°C global warming on temperature and precipitation patterns in South America

Projected impacts of 1.5 and 2°C global warming on temperature and precipitation patterns in South America

Reflections of global warming in trends of temperature characteristics in the Czech Republic, 1961–2019

Intensification characteristics of hydroclimatic extremes in the Asian monsoon region under 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming

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