Prediction System for Diameter Distribution and Wood Production of Eucalyptus

Miranda, Rodrigo Otávio Veiga de; Fiorentin, Luan Demarco; Netto, Sylvio Péllico; Juvanhol, Ronie Silva; Corte, Ana Paula Dalla

doi:10.1590/2179-8087.054816

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…The purpose of the presented algorithm was to locally model the growth rate as a function of age, indirectly capturing the influences of site quality, climate, species, genetic material and silvicultural tracts from a minimal dataset of the CFI. Even with this control, some significant errors were observed, especially for 2011 eucalyptus, in the ILPF system, and this magnitude of errors is common in prognosis studies (OGANA et al, 2020;MIRANDA et al, 2018;AZEVEDO et al, 2018;AZEVEDO et al, 2020;MIRANDA et al, 2018;AZEVEDO et al, 2020;al., 2016).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…Among the studies that have addressed the volume attribute is that of Miranda et al (2018), who applied the parameter prediction method, testing several models, some obtained by stepwise regression, from the correlation matrix between attributes of the continuous forest inventory with the b and c parameters of the Weibull function. Their results showed estimates of projected volume per ha with percent standard errors between -14.5% and 23.3%.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Algorithm for the Projection of Forest Growth and Production

Costa

Ramos

Campanha

et al. 2023

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The modeling of forest growth and production is an essential tool for forestry management because it allows us to perform simulations and project forest biometric variables in the future, thus assisting in stock planning and economic analyses. In this work, a growth and production model by diameter distribution was proposed with the application of the Weibull function based on the recovery of parameters through simplified functions between the forest attributes and the parameters of the Weibull function. The algorithm was developed in Excel’s VBA language. Validation was performed with data from the Continuous Forest Inventory (CFI) in a stand of Khaya grandifoliola and in rows of Eucalyptus spp. in the ILPF system, which were ordinarily organized into seven date combinations, from the most distant from to the closest to the projection date. The results were evaluated by the percentage standard error (SE%) applied to the projected and observed volumes and by the Kolmogorov‒Smirnov test applied to the diameter distributions to verify adherence. It was possible to identify an exact relationship for parameter c of the Weibull function as a function of the percentiles and for parameter b, improving the parameter recovery method. Another methodological improvement was the use of maximum diameter and maximum height for age to adjust the hypsometric function. The algorithm presented results for total volume with errors up to 20% in 85% of the tests.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Algorithm for the Projection of Forest Growth and Production

Costa

Ramos

Campanha

et al. 2023

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“…With the underlying asset modeled, we incorporated real options into the investment project through the software Decision Programming Language (DPL) [78]. We emphasize that, although the binomial decision tree was built with the risk-free rate, in obtaining the real probability of executing each option, in line with [79], we apply the opportunity cost rate of the investment project.…”

Section: Dynamic Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Photovoltaic Solar Energy in Forest Nurseries: A Strategic Decision Based on Real Options Analysis

et al. 2023

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With the growing demand for investment projects in renewable energy, it is essential for the economic feasibility analysis to consider the inherent uncertainties of these projects and enable more accurate investment decisions. In this way, we analyze whether investment projects in photovoltaic panels to produce electrical energy in a forest nursery are economically viable through the analysis of real options. We consider the energy demand of a forest nursery with an initial investment of USD 90,417 in photovoltaic panels. The managerial flexibilities of deferral, expansion of 30.0% of the energy production capacity, and the project’s abandonment were inserted into the binomial model of the decision tree, built in discrete time. The project’s expanded net present value was 79.2% higher than the traditional net present value, capturing the value of flexibilities for managers. The deferral option was the one that most impacted the expanded net present value. Investment projects in photovoltaic panels to produce electricity in a forest nursery are economically viable when analyzed through real options.

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“…The study of probabilistic functions in the forest environment mainly aims to model the diameter distribution and the projection of forest growth through forest growth and production (FG&P) models (OLIVEIRA et al, 2009;MIGUEL et al, 2010;BINOTI et al, 2012;RETSLAFF et al, 2012;LEITE et al, 2013;POUDEL;CAO, 2013;AZEVEDO et al, 2016;JESUS et al, 2017;MIRANDA et al, 2018;OGANA;CHUKWU;AJAYI, 2020). These models are essential to forest management because they allow the determination of forest dimensions at a future age for stock planning and economic analyses.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of the Weibull Distribution Form Parameter as a Function of the Scale Parameter by the Percentile Method

Costa

Guimarães

2022

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Among the probability density functions that estimate and project diametric distributions, the Weibull function is one of the most studied, and the percentile method is an alternative approach for estimating its parameters, with different deduction methods for calculating the location, scale, and shape parameters; in addition, of these parameters, some require iteration between formulas. In this study, the percentile method was used, and a function was established between the shape parameter, the asymptotic percentiles, and the scale parameter. This function was tested with continuous forest inventory (CFI) data of a Khaya grandifoliola stand and Eucalyptus spp. in integrated forest-livestock-forest (IFLF) systems, and the function was also validated based on distributions designed by the application of a recovery methodology for determining forest growth and production (FG&P) parameters. The results showed an exact correlation when compared with the parameters calculated by the percentile method. This function using the percentile method, due to its practicality, may be an alternative for obtaining the shape parameter in FG&P methodologies.

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Prediction System for Diameter Distribution and Wood Production of Eucalyptus

Cited by 6 publications

References 22 publications

Algorithm for the Projection of Forest Growth and Production

Algorithm for the Projection of Forest Growth and Production

Photovoltaic Solar Energy in Forest Nurseries: A Strategic Decision Based on Real Options Analysis

Estimation of the Weibull Distribution Form Parameter as a Function of the Scale Parameter by the Percentile Method

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