Prediction of Climate Change Effect on Outdoor Thermal Comfort in Arid Region

Abstract

Climate change and expected weather patterns in the long-term threaten the livelihood inside oases settlements in arid lands, particularly under the recurring heat waves during the harsh months. This paper investigates the impact of climate change on the outdoor thermal comfort within a multifamily housing neighborhood that is considered the most common residential archetype in Algerian Sahara, under extreme weather conditions in the summer season, in the long-term. It focuses on assessing the outdoor thermal comfort in the long-term, based on the Perceived Temperature index (PT), using simulation software ENVI-met and calculation model RayMan. Three different stations in situ were conducted and combined with TMY weather datasets for 2020 and the IPCC future projections: A1B, A2, B1 for 2050, and 2080. The results are performed from two different perspectives: to investigate how heat stress evolution undergoes climate change from 2020 till 2080; and for the development of a mathematical algorithm to predict the outdoor thermal comfort values in short-term, medium-term and long-term durations. The results indicate a gradual increase in PT index values, starting from 2020 and progressively elevated to 2080 during the summer season, which refers to an extreme thermal heat-stress level with differences in PT index averages between 2020 and 2050 (+5.9 °C), and 2080 (+7.7 °C), meaning no comfortable thermal stress zone expected during 2080. This study gives urban climate researchers, architects, designers and urban planners several insights into predicted climate circumstances and their impacts on outdoor thermal comfort for the long-term under extreme weather conditions, in order to take preventive measures for the cities’ planning in the arid regions.

An analysis into the alternative strategies of substantial energy saving for the facilities of University of Jeddah, Khulais branch

“…The results of both American Society of Heating Refrigerating and Air Conditioning Engineers and Matallah et al [13,14] indicate a gradual increase in PT index values for upcoming years. Matallah et al [14] Assessed (PT) index using simulation software ENVI-met and calculation model RayMan and the results showed a significant elevation on (PT) averages between 2020 and 2050 with a difference of +5.9 °C, (PT) index values also showed a high elevation on heat stress during the hot season when the comfortable thermal zone is decreasing from 25% in 2020 to 1% in 2050 and 0% in 2080. Yau et al [15] examined the outdoor thermal comfort in the Korean Peninsula in 2007 using (PT) index.…”

“…From the above literature review and discussion, the association between local climate conditions, outdoor/indoor thermal comfort, and IEQ are obvious. However, climate change effect on outdoor thermal comfort has been predicted by assessing the outdoor thermal comfort in the long-term, based on the Perceived Temperature index (PT) [14]. The results of both American Society of Heating Refrigerating and Air Conditioning Engineers and Matallah et al [13,14] indicate a gradual increase in PT index values for upcoming years.…”

“…However, climate change effect on outdoor thermal comfort has been predicted by assessing the outdoor thermal comfort in the long-term, based on the Perceived Temperature index (PT) [14]. The results of both American Society of Heating Refrigerating and Air Conditioning Engineers and Matallah et al [13,14] indicate a gradual increase in PT index values for upcoming years. Matallah et al [14] Assessed (PT) index using simulation software ENVI-met and calculation model RayMan and the results showed a significant elevation on (PT) averages between 2020 and 2050 with a difference of +5.9 °C, (PT) index values also showed a high elevation on heat stress during the hot season when the comfortable thermal zone is decreasing from 25% in 2020 to 1% in 2050 and 0% in 2080.…”

Microscale Investigation of Urban Heat Island (UHI) in Annaba City: Unveiling Factors and Mitigation Strategies

“…In Baghdad, researchers are focusing on microclimate studies and green spaces to counter rising temperatures [54][55][56]. Recent Urban Heat Island (UHI) research and mitigation in Algeria have predominantly focused on arid and semi-arid climates due to their heightened susceptibility to UHI effects [57,58]. However, a notable shift has occurred in the past few years, with an increasing academic and practical interest in extending these efforts to Mediterranean climates [59,60].…”

How Tmrt Affects PET Assessment in Outdoor Environments: A Comparative Study

“…A comfortable urban environment may enhance human activities. Outdoor thermal comfort is important, especially in regions with extreme temperatures and climatic conditions (Matallah et al, 2021). Indeed, climatic conditions and human factors are known to affect it (Andreou, 2013).…”