Prediction and Optimization of System Quality and Risks on the Base of Modelling Processes

Abstract

<p align="justify"> <span>The paper is concerned with the development and application of the original probability models and supporting them software tools <span>to predict and optimize quality and risks for complex systems. </span>The examples demonstrate possibilities to use modeling results from different application spheres and to go in making decision “from a pragmatical filtration of information to generation of the proved ideas and effective decisions”.</span><span></span> </p> <p> <span></span> </p

The method of rational dispatching a sequence of heterogeneous repair works

“…For estimations of these metrics (Т full.i and Т full.i2 ) with reference to Technologies 1, 2, and 3 it is purposed to use classical models of the queueing theory [1][2]4]. For Technologies 4 and 5, the formulas received earlier in works [3,[5][6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23] are applicable. Thus, frequencies of arriving calls (λ i ) and the average time of performing calls of i-th type (β i1 ) form an input for modelling.…”

“…Thus, frequencies of arriving calls (λ i ) and the average time of performing calls of i-th type (β i1 ) form an input for modelling. Evaluations can be carried out with the use of software tools complexes, for example the software tools Complex for Evaluation of Information Systems Operation Quality (CEISOQ) -"know how" (registered by Rospatent N2000610272), "Mathematical modelling of system life cycle processes" -"know how" (registered by Rospatent N2004610858), "Complex for evaluating quality of production processes" (registered by Rospatent N2010614145) [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23].…”

“…For modelling and estimations, software tools complexes CEISOQ [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23] Results of the analysis have shown that at the expense of the choice of rational dispatcher Technology 5 and its optimizing parameters the relative portion of well-timed performed calls is 3 times greater in comparison with the today applied Technologies 1 and 4. And the value of damages can be really reduced!…”

“…In the present article, a possibility of increasing the relative portion of well-timed performance of calls at the expense of optimization of the sequence of their performance is researched. The proposed method is based on the comparison and rational use of essentially differing properties of the following dispatcher technologies: technology for performing calls by the consecutive order "first in, first out" (FIFO) without priorities, technologies with relative and absolute priorities, technology of batch performing, and the multi-parameter technology with a combination of the listed technologies (the two last technologies have been researched earlier by authors of this article in other applications [3,[5][6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23]). …”

Probabilistic Methods and Technologies of Risk Prediction and Rationale of Preventive Measures by Using “Smart Systems”: Applications to Coal Branch for Increasing Industrial Safety of Enterprises

“…Developing existing researches [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17], this manuscript includes correct probabilistic interpretation of risk prediction effectively using "smart" systems, some original basic probabilistic models for risk prediction, the improvement of existing risk control concept, and approaches for solving some problems of industrial safety for coal branch.…”