Probabilistic Methods and Technologies of Risk Prediction and Rationale of Preventive Measures by Using “Smart Systems”: Applications to Coal Branch for Increasing Industrial Safety of Enterprises

Abstract

Abilities of "smart systems" for processing information, adaptation to conditions of uncertainty, and performance of scientifically proven preventive actions in real time are analyzed. Basic probabilistic models and technologies for the analysis of complex systems, using "smart systems," ways of generation of probabilistic models for prognostic researches of the new systems projected, modernized, or transformed, are proposed. The proposed methods are described to predict risks to lose integrity for complex structures on the given prognostic time and rationale of preventive measures considering admissible risk, estimate "smart system" operation quality, and predict in real time the mean residual time before the next parameter abnormalities. The methods and technologies are implemented on the level of the remote monitoring systems. The application is illustrated on the examples of the jointstock company "Siberian Coal Energy Company."

Probabilistic Methods for Cognitive Solving of Some Problems in Artificial Intelligence Systems

“…As the results of selection, the author's models to estimate the probabilistic measures of a quality of used information and the probabilities of "success" and risks of "failure" for "black box" and for complex structures are proposed for AIS. The models are widely tested and approved in practice [15][16][17][18][19][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37].…”

“…A probabilistic space (Ω, B, P) for estimation of system operation processes is traditional [15][16][17][18][19][20][21], where Ω is a limited space of elementary events; B is a class of all subspace of Ω-space, satisfied to the properties of σ-algebra; and P is a probability measure on a space of elementary events Ω. Such space (Ω, B, P) is built and proposed for using [22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37].…”

“…For the given period T given , the next statements are proposed for use, see in detail [18,19,[35][36][37].…”

“…The modification of this model allows to use different values of diagnostics and recovery time [35][36][37]; for formulas (1)-(3), recovery time is equal to diagnostics time.…”

“…The spectrum of the explored systems by these methods includes systems (not only AIS) operated by government agencies, manufacturing structures (including power generation, coal enterprises, oil and gas systems), food storage, space industry, emergency services, municipal economy, etc. [15][16][17][18][19][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37]. The supporting software tools are original Russian creations registered by Rospatent [38][39][40][41][42][43][44].…”