Analytical Risks Prediction. Rationale of System Preventive Measures for Solving Quality and Safety Problems

Probabilistic Predictive Modelling for Complex System Risk Assessments

“…2. The rationale for exponential approximation choice in practice see for example in [6,9,14,[28][29][30][31].…”

“…The models below help to implement concepts 1, 3 and 4 [6,9,[14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31]. In general, successful system operation is connected with counteractions against various system integrity loss hazards (of social, natural and technogenic origins) throughout system operation timeline.…”

“…For example, for coal mine some of many dozens heterogeneous parameters may be compression, temperature, etc. It may be interpreted similarly by light signals "green", "yellow" and "red" [18,25,[28][29][30][31]-see Figure 7 and following Example 1.…”

“…The proposed concepts 2À6 may be supported by the following typical optimization problem statements for various systems [9,14,[28][29][30][31]:…”

“…The applications of the proposed approach cover: the analysis of the reliability of complex systems built from unreliable components; the estimation of the expected reliability and safety for complex constructions and intelligent manufacturing, the modelling of robotic and automated systems operating in cosmic space, the optimization of a centralized heat supply system, the analysis of the possibilities to keep "organism integrity" by continuous monitoring, the risk analysis during longtime grain storage, the control of timeliness, the completeness and validity of used information; the comparison between information security processes in networks; resources management and predicting quality for information systems operation; the estimation of human factor, the research of mutual monitoring operators actions for transport systems, rational dispatching of a sequence of heterogeneous repair works, the analysis of sea oil and gas systems vulnerabilities in conditions of different threats, the development of recommendations to reduce risks for the important land use planning (including Arctic region), the rationales of preventive measures by using "smart systems" etc.-see [9,[14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31]. Here the examples are intended to demonstrate some probabilistic risk prediction sectorial applications.…”