The method of rational dispatching a sequence of heterogeneous repair works

Abstract

For critically important power systems, some repair works should be performed by one repair brigade at the same time. Conditions for performing different works are often characterized by uncertainties. In practice, the term is given for each work, and possible damages exist if the performance of works is not well-timed. Taking into account these factors, the sequence of performing heterogeneous repair works essentially influences the safety and/or efficiency of the power system. The method of rational dispatching of the sequence of heterogeneous repair works considering the requirements of timeliness for their performance is proposed in this paper. The rational sequence of works is established by criteria of minimizing integral damages based on the best choices from different dispatcher technologies and their parameters (such as distribution of work call types by priorities, distribution of call priorities into groups, appointment of technologies inside groups). A possible effect is demonstrated by an example.

Probabilistic Predictive Modelling for Complex System Risk Assessments

“…The models below help to implement concepts 1, 3 and 4 [6,9,[14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31]. In general, successful system operation is connected with counteractions against various system integrity loss hazards (of social, natural and technogenic origins) throughout system operation timeline.…”

“…The applications of the proposed approach cover: the analysis of the reliability of complex systems built from unreliable components; the estimation of the expected reliability and safety for complex constructions and intelligent manufacturing, the modelling of robotic and automated systems operating in cosmic space, the optimization of a centralized heat supply system, the analysis of the possibilities to keep "organism integrity" by continuous monitoring, the risk analysis during longtime grain storage, the control of timeliness, the completeness and validity of used information; the comparison between information security processes in networks; resources management and predicting quality for information systems operation; the estimation of human factor, the research of mutual monitoring operators actions for transport systems, rational dispatching of a sequence of heterogeneous repair works, the analysis of sea oil and gas systems vulnerabilities in conditions of different threats, the development of recommendations to reduce risks for the important land use planning (including Arctic region), the rationales of preventive measures by using "smart systems" etc.-see [9,[14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31]. Here the examples are intended to demonstrate some probabilistic risk prediction sectorial applications.…”

Probabilistic Methods for Cognitive Solving of Some Problems in Artificial Intelligence Systems

“…As the results of selection, the author's models to estimate the probabilistic measures of a quality of used information and the probabilities of "success" and risks of "failure" for "black box" and for complex structures are proposed for AIS. The models are widely tested and approved in practice [15][16][17][18][19][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37].…”

“…A probabilistic space (Ω, B, P) for estimation of system operation processes is traditional [15][16][17][18][19][20][21], where Ω is a limited space of elementary events; B is a class of all subspace of Ω-space, satisfied to the properties of σ-algebra; and P is a probability measure on a space of elementary events Ω. Such space (Ω, B, P) is built and proposed for using [22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37].…”

“…The spectrum of the explored systems by these methods includes systems (not only AIS) operated by government agencies, manufacturing structures (including power generation, coal enterprises, oil and gas systems), food storage, space industry, emergency services, municipal economy, etc. [15][16][17][18][19][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37]. The supporting software tools are original Russian creations registered by Rospatent [38][39][40][41][42][43][44].…”