Predicting the Water Rebound Effect in China under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Guo, Aijun; Zhang, Rong; Song, Xiaoyu; Zhong, Fanglei; Jiang, Daiwei; Song, Yuan

doi:10.3390/ijerph18031326

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…By 2030, 75% of the irrigated area will be covered by irrigation systems that enable water conservation. However, the desired water conservation is at risk of being impacted by the water rebound effect (Guo et al, 2021). Each year, the Ministry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China divides provinces into "excellent attainment, " "attainment, " or "nonattainment" categories based on whether they have achieved their water conservation objectives.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can the Right Crop Mix Reduce the Water Rebound Effect Following Improvements in Irrigation Efficiency?

Chai¹,

Zhang²,

Ma³

et al. 2022

Front. Water

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Water rebound has been recognized as a significant issue that reduces the effectiveness of irrigation efficiency improvement policies aimed at water conservation. However, there is an absence of quantitative analysis of the impact of crop mixes on the water rebound effect, and studies focusing on the heterogeneous effects of various climatic regions are scarce. Thus, this study aims to explore the effects of water rebound on irrigation efficiency improvements from the perspectives of crop mix and climatic region. First, we construct a double-layered moderating effect framework to incorporate the two interactive factors of crop mix and climatic region combined with two rebound mechanisms, cost reduction and increased revenue. Second, we conduct empirical analyses to test three hypotheses based on provincial-level data from 2003 to 2017 in China, which provides a unique empirical context wherein changes in the crop mix depend on factors other than the water-use policy. This paper takes advantage of the implementation of Rural Land Contracting Law since 2003 and Water Conservancy Key Counties Construction Program since 2009 to identify the effects of water rebound on irrigation efficiency improvements from the perspectives of crop mix and climatic region. We found that the water rebound effect was about 67.72%. Crop mixes involving higher proportions of non-grain crops were associated with higher levels of water conservation and less water rebound. Furthermore, non-grain crops in humid regions were more likely to experience water rebound than those in non-humid regions. Thus, given China's national strategy of food security, reducing the proportion of non-grain crops in humid regions will help to sustain agricultural water resources and conserve the environment.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can the Right Crop Mix Reduce the Water Rebound Effect Following Improvements in Irrigation Efficiency?

Chai¹,

Zhang²,

Ma³

et al. 2022

Front. Water

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show abstract

“…The introduction of the concept of WF provides a new idea for alleviating the severe problems with water resources in China (Hoekstra and Mekonnen., 2012;Cai et al, 2020) The SSPs are the global socioeconomic development scenarios launched by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2010 (Moss et al, 2010). The five basic pathways have qualitatively and quantitatively described the future socioeconomic development under different resource utilization models, economic and technological levels, and environmental protection awareness, and have been widely recognized by the scientific community (Guo et al, 2021). RCPs are emission scenarios proposed by the IPCC in 2005 describing future greenhouse gas concentration changes and related climate impacts (Eyring et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

System Dynamics Simulation and Scenario Optimization of China's Water Footprint under Different SSP-RCP Scenarios

Jiang

Ouyang

Wang

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Under the dual influence of socioeconomic development and climate change, water resources in China are under increasing stress. It is of great significance to comprehensively explore the changing trend of China’s water footprint (WF) in the future, clarify the water resource challenges that China will face, and alleviate water shortage and water pollution problems. This paper uses System Dynamics (SD) to build a simulation model of China’s WF, calculate China’s WF from 2000 to 2019, and for the first time, simulate and optimize China’s WF from 2020 to 2050 under the SSP-RCP scenario matrix composed of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are as follows. (1) From 2000 to 2019, China’s WF increased to 2009 and began to decline. The main contributors are gray WF and agricultural WF. (2) From 2020–2050, different socioeconomic development and climate change conditions under the five SSP-RCP scenarios will lead to different trends in China’s WF and its composition. (3) Based on the changes in WF and water resources supply/demand ratio under different scenarios, the SSP1-2.6 scenario is the best scenario to mitigate a future water shortage and water pollution in China. The research results can help decision-makers formulate relevant management policies and socioeconomic development models for water resource utilization and provide decision support for alleviating water shortages and water pollution in China.

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“…This paper examined the rebound effect of water efficiency improvement in China based on a multi-sectoral CGE model. In contrast to previous studies [28][29][30], we focused on the economy-wide rebound effect of water efficiency and calculated the rebound effect at the macro-and sector levels, as well as production and consumption sides. This study contributes to the literature in two ways: First, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to specifically measure the economy-wide rebound effect of water efficiency for China in a comprehensive CGE model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the Economy-Wide Rebound Effect of Water Efficiency Improvement in China Based on a Multi-Sectoral Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Zhou

Wei

et al. 2021

Water

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The effectiveness of water efficiency improvement is restricted by the water rebound effect by which anticipated water resource saving from improved water efficiency may be partly or wholly offset or even surpassed by an increase in water demand. The economy-wide rebound effect of water efficiency improvement in China is poorly understood. This study explored the economy-wide rebound effect of water efficiency improvement in China based on a multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model. The results suggested that water efficiency improvement could effectively reduce water consumption in producing sectors and benefit economic growth and employment. However, the decrease in water consumption was much lower than the volume of water efficiency improvement, which indicated that the rebound effect partly offset water savings caused by water efficiency improvement. We observed a larger reduction in water consumption in the long run, which indicated a smaller rebound effect and a more significant effect in saving water resources in the long term. Notably, the total rebound effect in the short-run closure was much larger than that in the long-run closure, and the effect from the production side was much smaller. Hence, the economic-wide rebound effect is primarily derived from the incremental water consumption by households, investors, and governments.

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Predicting the Water Rebound Effect in China under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Cited by 7 publications

References 51 publications

Can the Right Crop Mix Reduce the Water Rebound Effect Following Improvements in Irrigation Efficiency?

Can the Right Crop Mix Reduce the Water Rebound Effect Following Improvements in Irrigation Efficiency?

System Dynamics Simulation and Scenario Optimization of China's Water Footprint under Different SSP-RCP Scenarios

Analysis of the Economy-Wide Rebound Effect of Water Efficiency Improvement in China Based on a Multi-Sectoral Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

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