System Dynamics Simulation and Scenario Optimization of China's Water Footprint under Different SSP-RCP Scenarios

Abstract

Under the dual influence of socioeconomic development and climate change, water resources in China are under increasing stress. It is of great significance to comprehensively explore the changing trend of China’s water footprint (WF) in the future, clarify the water resource challenges that China will face, and alleviate water shortage and water pollution problems. This paper uses System Dynamics (SD) to build a simulation model of China’s WF, calculate China’s WF from 2000 to 2019, and for the first time, simulate and optimize China’s WF from 2020 to 2050 under the SSP-RCP scenario matrix composed of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are as follows. (1) From 2000 to 2019, China’s WF increased to 2009 and began to decline. The main contributors are gray WF and agricultural WF. (2) From 2020–2050, different socioeconomic development and climate change conditions under the five SSP-RCP scenarios will lead to different trends in China’s WF and its composition. (3) Based on the changes in WF and water resources supply/demand ratio under different scenarios, the SSP1-2.6 scenario is the best scenario to mitigate a future water shortage and water pollution in China. The research results can help decision-makers formulate relevant management policies and socioeconomic development models for water resource utilization and provide decision support for alleviating water shortages and water pollution in China.

Analysis of Urban Heat Island Effect in Wuhan Urban Area Based on Prediction of Urban Underlying Surface Coverage Type Change

“…For the future (2030) simulation, SSP245 scenario has been used. Based on the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, the SSP is a list of fve possible development scenarios envisaged by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [44]. Among these, SSP2 is a medium development path that follows the historical development scenario, with no signifcant change in economic development and a slow decline in CO 2 emissions.…”

Revealing the changes in water footprint at the provincial level and their drivers in the Yellow River Basin, China

“…Sichuan, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia had effective water utilization coefficients for agricultural irrigation in 2019, which were below the national average of 0.568 at 0.477, 0.5, 0.543, 0.546, and 0.547, respectively (MWRPRC 2020). Compared with the average in developed countries, there is still a significant gap (Jiang 2015, Cai et al 2019. Therefore, in the future, improving water efficiency will be an important way to reduce the WF.…”