Predicting the Geography of Species’ Invasions via Ecological Niche Modeling

Abstract

keywords invasive species, ecological niche models, geographic information systems, predictive modeling, niche evolution abstract Species' invasions have long been regarded as enormously complex processes, so complex as to defy predictivity. Phases of this process, however, are emerging as highly predictable: the potential geographic course of an invasion can be anticipated with high precision based on the ecological niche characteristics of a species in its native geographic distributional area. This predictivity depends on the premise that ecological niches constitute long-term stable constraints on the potential geographic distributions of species, for which a sizeable body of evidence is accumulating. Hence, although the entire invasion process is indeed complex, the geographic course that invasions are able to take can be anticipated with considerable confidence.I NVASIVE SPECIES have become an issue of great concern in fields as diverse as biology, agriculture, transportation, and economics (Carlton 1996;Kareiva 1996;Williamson 1996Williamson , 1999Enserink 1999;Higgins et al. 1999; NAS 2002). The basic point is that with ever-increasing scales of human movement, species are finding ever-increasing opportunities to move as well, resulting in many introductions of species to novel landscapes (NAS 2002). Although many colonizations fail (Williamson and Fitter 1996), for reasons of demography or of chance, this increased opportunity for colonization certainly plays a major role in increasing numbers of successful invasions.Several reviews of the natural history and ecology of invasive species have been conducted in the hope of identifying factors key in determining the success of invasions that could serve as the basis for a predictive understanding of which species represent potential invaders (Honig et al. 1992;Perrins et al. 1992;Scott and Panetta 1993;Lonsdale 1994;Carlton 1996;Rejmánek and Richardson 1996;Williamson 1996Williamson , 1999Reichard and Hamilton 1997;Ricciardi and Rasmussen 1998;Enserink 1999; NAS 2002). Unfortunately, the list of such identified key factors is short, consisting principally of characters associated with weedy habit and prior history of successful invasion. More than anything, with a few exceptions (Rejmánek and Richardson 1996), the conclusion has been that 420Volume 78 THE QUARTERLY REVIEW OF BIOLOGY few or no factors allow consistent prediction a priori of success or failure of invasions. As a result, efforts to combat species' invasions have been largely reactive in nature: a new invader arrives, and a plan must then be developed to combat it.A distinct approach toward predicting the behavior of invasions, however, can be referred to as "climate-matching" (NAS 2002). This approach is based on the concept of ecological niches as a constraint on the distributional potential of species (Grinnell 1917(Grinnell , 1924, and involves a logical extension of the basic niche concept-that species will be able to establish populations only in areas that match the set of ecological c...

Potential for spread of the white-nose fungus (Pseudogymnoascus destructans) in the Americas: use of Maxent and NicheA to assure strict model transference

“…destructans in North America is clearly not in what can be termed distributional equilibrium, i.e. filling all suitable sites across the broad regions to which it will eventually have access (Peterson, 2003;Peterson et al, 2011;Maher et al, 2012). The situation is rather that P. destructans is still spreading across North America, which means that new regions and novel bat taxa will likely be involved as the pathogen spreads.…”

How to Achieve Effectiveness in Problem-Oriented Landscape Research: The Example of Research on Biotic Invasions

“…Vale and Parker, 1980). Contributions from physical geography may for instance come from remote sensing (Asner and Vitousek, 2005;Bradley and Mustard, 2006) and GIS modelling (Peterson, 2003).…”

Global Biodiversity Informatics: setting the scene for a “new world” of ecological forecasting

“…Integrating primary biodiversity data with environmental information via ENM, researchers can predict impacts of global climate change on terrestrial and marine biodiversity (Siqueira and Peterson, 2003;Thomas et al, 2004); conservationists can find gaps in networks of conservation reserve systems (Rodrigues et al, 2004); and agricultural researchers and health specialists can analyze insect collections to predict the timing and spread of pests and diseases (Peterson, 2003).…”

“…This field has great potential in diverse realms, with applications ranging from prediction of distributions of known and unknown species (Raxworthy et al, 2003), prediction of geographic and ecological distribution of infectious disease vectors Costa et al, 2003;Peterson et al, 2002c;Peterson and Shaw, 2003), prediction of species' invasions (Peterson and Vieglais, 2001;Peterson, 2003), and assessment of impacts of climate change on biodiversity (Peterson et al, 2002b;Siqueira and Peterson, 2003;Thomas et al, 2004). This potential nonetheless remains largely unexplored, as this field is only now becoming a vibrant area of inquiry and study.…”