Predicting Ross River Virus Epidemics from Regional Weather Data

Abstract

Early warning of weather conditions conducive to outbreaks of Ross River virus disease is possible at the regional level with a high degree of accuracy. Our models may have application as a decision tool for health authorities to use in risk-management planning.

Climate variability and Ross River virus infections in Riverland, South Australia, 1992–2004

“…The predictive model derived from historic data indicates that these models have an excellent goodness-of-fit. This is the first such report on RRV in an Australian temperate climate zone and the findings are consistent with previous Australian studies [11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. In addition, we have run different models with and without weather variables, showing that the model without the weather variables demonstrates a much worse goodness-of-fit.…”

“…Because of the different ecological characteristics of different species of mosquitoes, different vectors may be favoured as the weather changes. Maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, SOI and high tides should all be considered [11,18]. We have examined the effect of climatic variables on notified RRV infections in Riverland, an inland area which includes the Murray River and has the highest notified incidence of RRV in South Australia [19,20].…”

“…Many studies have examined the relationship between climate variability and RRV infections in different regions of Australia, most focusing on areas in northern Australia, such as the tropical regions of Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia [7,[11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. Because domain vectors are probably different in various regions, climatic conditions in the regions are likely to play different roles in RRV transmission due to the sensitivity of different vectors to various climatic factors.…”

Resistance and Resilience of A Stream Salamander To Supraseasonal Drought

“…Fewer, but heavier, rainfall events are likely to affect mosquito breeding and increase the variability in annual rates of Ross River disease, particularly in temperate and semi-arid areas (Woodruff et al, 2002(Woodruff et al, , 2006. Dengue is a substantial threat in Australia; the climate of the far north already supports Aedes aegypti (the major mosquito vector of the dengue virus), and outbreaks of dengue have occurred with increasing frequency and magnitude in farnorthern Australia over the past decade.…”

Prediction of a Rift Valley fever outbreak

“…Other vector-borne diseases have also been associated with ENSO-related variations in precipitation (6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11). Concurrently, anomalous warm SSTs in the equatorial easterncentral Pacific Ocean region and the western equatorial Indian Ocean result in above-normal and widespread rainfall in the Horn of Africa (2).…”