Predicting Recidivism of Juvenile Offenders

Abstract

This study uses a large data set to analyze and predict recidivism of juvenile offenders in Pennsylvania. We employ a split-population duration model to determine the effect of covariates on (1) the probability of failure, defined as a second referral to juvenile court, and (2) the time to failure, given that it occurs. A test of the predictive power of our estimates finds a false positive rate of 18.5% and a false negative rate of 20.7%, which compares favorably to the performance of other models in the literature.

Recidivism Among Justice-Involved Youth: Findings From JJ-TRIALS

“…The results are mixed. Two studies did not find an association between contextual factors and recidivism (Harris, Mennis et al, 2011; Leverso et al, 2015), while others have found significant and positive relationships with juvenile recidivism (Kalist et al, 2015; Wolff, Baglivio, Intravia, et al, 2017; Wolff et al, 2015, 2016; Yan, 2009).…”

Recidivism in a Sample of Serious Adolescent Offenders

“…Brame et al (2003) studied a subsample of adolescent offenders within the 1958 Philadelphia Birth Cohort who had experienced a police contact for an index offense as a juvenile and estimated that nearly 40% of these offenders went on to experience at least 1 police contact in adulthood (by age 27) for another index offense. Kalist and colleagues (2015) studied a large sample of Pennsylvania juveniles (N = 74,684) over the 1997–2005 period and used court referrals as a measure of recidivism. Their analysis reports an overall recidivism rate of 45.6% (49.8% for males and 31.7% for females).…”

Functional Connectivity of Moral Cognition and Traits of Psychopathy in Youth: An Analysis of the Scientific Literature

“…Furthermore, juvenile offenders' features have been identified as preceding criminal behavior in adults (Paternoster et al, 2001). Additionally, recidivism has been linked to the severity of crimes committed (e.g., aggravated theft, homicide, property crime, drug trafficking, among others) (Dembo et al, 1998;Kalist et al, 2015). Approximately 15-25% of prison population meets criteria for a diagnosis of psychopathy or antisocial personality disorder and are four times more likely to reoffend one year post-release (Aharoni et al, 2014;Hart et al, 1988;Saladino et al, 2021).…”