The regression models appropriate for counted data have seen little use in psychology. This article describes problems that occur when ordinary linear regression is used to analyze count data and presents 3 alternative regression models. The simplest, the Poisson regression model, is likely to be misleading unless restrictive assumptions are met because individual counts are usually more variable ("overdispersed") than is implied by the model. This model can be modified in 2 ways to accomodate this problem. In the overdispersed model, a factor can be estimated that corrects the regression model's inferential statistics. In the second alternative, the negative binomial regression model, a random term reflecting unexplained between-subject differences is included in the regression model. The authors compare the advantages of these approaches.

"Discharged mental patients" do not form a homogeneous group in relation to violence in the community. The prevalence of community violence by people discharged from acute psychiatric facilities varies considerably according to diagnosis and, particularly, co-occurring substance abuse diagnosis or symptoms.

Most theorizing about desistance from antisocial behavior in late adolescence has emphasized the importance of individuals' transition into adult roles. In contrast, little research has examined how psychological development in late adolescence and early adulthood contributes desistance. The present study examined trajectories of antisocial behavior among serious juvenile offenders from 14 through 22 years of age and tested how impulse control, suppression of aggression, future orientation, consideration of others, personal responsibility, and resistance to peer influence distinguished between youths who persisted in antisocial behavior and youths who desisted. Different patterns of development in psychosocial maturity from adolescence to early adulthood, especially with respect to impulse control and suppression of aggression, distinguished among individuals who followed different trajectories of antisocial behavior. Compared with individuals who desisted from antisocial behavior, youths who persisted in antisocial behavior exhibited deficits in elements of psychosocial maturity, particularly in impulse control, suppression of aggression, and future orientation. Keywords psychosocial maturity; antisocial behavior; desistanceIt is well established that antisocial and criminal activity increases during adolescence, peaks around age 17 (with the peak somewhat earlier for property than for violent crime), and declines as individuals enter adulthood; evidence for this so-called age-crime curve has been found across samples that vary in their ethnicity, national origin, and historical era (Farrington, 1986;Piquero, 2007;Piquero et al., 2001). Although there is a substantial literature on factors that contribute to the rise in delinquent activity that takes place during early and middle adolescence (e.g., increases in susceptibility to peer pressure, decreases in parental monitoring), less is known about the decline in antisocial behavior that occurs during the transition to adulthood. Numerous explanations have been offered for this decline, including fatigue (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990); entrance into social roles that make continued antisocial activity difficult, such as work, marriage, and parenting (Laub & Sampson, 2001; Uggen & Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Kathryn C. Monahan, Center for Human Development and Disability, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195. monahank@u.washington.edu. (Moffitt, 1993); and psychosocial maturation, which brings with it increases in self-control, stronger resistance to peer influence, and the willingness to forsake immediate gratification in order to achieve future goals (Steinberg & Cauffman, 1996; for a review of theories of desistance from antisocial behavior, see Mulvey et al., 2004). Empirical research on these propositions is sparse, however, and much more is known about the factors that lead individuals into delinquency and antisocial behavior than about the factors that lead them out of it (Farrall & Bowling, 1999;Laub & Samp...

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Improving juvenile court decision making requires information about how serious adolescent offenders desist from antisocial activity. A systematic research agenda on this topic requires consideration of several processes, including normative development in late adolescence, what constitutes desistance, and the factors likely to promote the end of involvement in antisocial behavior and successful adjustment in early adulthood. This article presents an overview of the major points to consider in pursuing this research agenda. Keywordsdesistance from crime; juvenile delinquency careers; stopping antisocial behaviorWe have always expected a great deal from the juvenile justice system. On one hand, the system is charged with keeping communities safe, using theories and approaches-such as deterrence or incapacitation-that are common to the criminal justice system. In recent years, juvenile courts have the added responsibility to ensure that its responses are proportional, making sure NIH Public Access

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Although psychopathy is recognized as a relatively strong risk factor for violence among inmates and mentally disordered offenders, few studies have examined the extent to which its predictive power generalizes to civil psychiatric samples. Using data on 1,136 patients from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment project, this study examined whether the 2 scales that underlie the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV) measure a unique personality construct that predicts violence among civil patients. The results indicate that the PCL:SV is a relatively strong predictor of violence. The PCL:SV's predictive power is substantially reduced, but remains significant, after controlling for a host of covariates that reflect antisocial behavior and personality disorders other than psychopathy. However, the predictive power of the PCL:SV is not based on its assessment of the core traits of psychopathy, as traditionally construed. Implications for the 2-factor model that underlies the PCL measures and for risk assessment practice are discussed.

Implementing a large, longitudinal study of any sample is a major undertaking. The challenges are compounded when the study involves multiple sites and a high-risk sample. This article outlines the methodology for the Pathways to Desistance study, a multisite, longitudinal study of serious juvenile offenders, and discusses the key operational decisions with the greatest impact on the study design.Keywords juvenile delinquents; juvenile offenders; multisite study; participant retention; operational issues; participant recruitment; longitudinal studies; data collection; tracking participants; Pathways to Desistance; methods Over the past 2 decades, a great deal has been learned about the risk indicators associated with adolescent antisocial behavior and delinquency. Indeed, much has been clarified about how delinquent behavior starts, the general trajectory of this behavior during adolescence, and the relative predictive power of certain risk indicators (see, for example, Blumstein, Cohen, Roth, & Visher, 1986;Cicchetti & Cohen, 1995;Farrington, 1997;LeBlanc & Loeber, 1998;Loeber, Farrington, Stouthamer-Loeber, Moffitt, & Caspi, 2001;Moffitt, 1993;Sampson & Laub, 1990, 1997. One particularly important finding to emerge from this literature is that relatively few adolescent offenders go on to serious adult offending (Loeber & Farrington, 2000;Moffitt, 1993). Consequently, one of the most pressing current challenges for the field is to reliably NIH Public Access Author ManuscriptYouth Violence Juv Justice. Author manuscript; available in PMC 2010 January 29. NIH-PA Author ManuscriptNIH-PA Author Manuscript NIH-PA Author Manuscript distinguish between juvenile offenders who will continue problem behavior beyond adolescence and those who will not.Successfully meeting this challenge requires a greater empirical understanding about how and why juveniles desist from committing crime. Several calls have been made for researchers to study desistance from criminal activity with the same vigor exerted toward issues surrounding the onset of criminal activity (e.g., Farrington, 1997), yet the literature in this domain remains scant. One comprehensive approach to understanding this process would be to examine desistance from criminal activity prospectively, using multiple sources of information beyond official reporting (Farrington, 1997). This approach would be guided by the literature on child and adolescent development, and sensitive to the potential implications of findings for designing interventions and developing rational justice policies.The Pathways to Desistance Project highlighted in this special edition is an attempt to take up this challenge. It is a large-scale, two-site longitudinal examination of desistance from crime among adolescent serious offenders. The goal of the current study was to elucidate how developmental processes, social context, and intervention and sanctioning experiences affect the process of desistance from crime. The current study employed a prospective design with a broad measurement...