A classification tree approach to the development of actuarial violence risk assessment tools.

Steadman, Henry J.; Silver, Eric; Monahan, John; Appelbaum, Paul S.; Robbins, Pamela Clark; Mulvey, Edward P.; Grisso, Thomas; Roth, Loren H.; Banks, Steven M.

doi:10.1023/a:1005478820425

Cited by 335 publications

(325 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Based on the most sophisticated statistical methods for assessing accuracy (i.e., Receiver Operator Characteristic, ROC; Mossman, 1994;Rice & Harris, 1995: Swets, 1986, actuarial scales have demonstrated accuracy rates in the range of 70 to 80% (Bonta, Harman, Hann, & Cormier, 1996;Hanson & Thomton, 2000;Rice & Harris, 1995;Mossman, 1994;Steadman et al, 2000). Also of interest, is that sorne researchers (e.g., Palmer, 1997;Nugent, 2000) have demonstrated that the predictive accuracy of SIR scale can be enhanced by incorporating information pertaining to recent prison misconducts.…”

Section: Actuanal Prediction and Criminal Behaviourmentioning

confidence: 99%

The dynamic prediction of criminal recidivism: A three-wave prospective study.

Brown

Amand

Zamble

2009

Law and Human Behavior

136

236

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A three-wave, prospective panel design was used to assess the extent to which static and dynamic risk factors could predict criminal recidivism in a sample of 136 adult male offenders released from Canadian federal prisons. Static measures were assessed only once, prior to release while dynamic measures were assessed on three separate occasions: pre-release, 1 month, and 3 months post-release. Recidivism was coded during an average of 10.2-month follow-up period (SD = 19.2). A series of Cox regression survival analyses with time-dependent covariates and Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) analyses were conducted to assess predictive validity. Although the combined static and time-dependent dynamic model (AUC = .89, CI = .81–.93) significantly (p < .01) outperformed the pure static model (AUC = .81, CI = .73– .87) the confidence intervals did overlap to some extent. Implications for dynamic risk assessment and management are discussed.

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Section: Actuanal Prediction and Criminal Behaviourmentioning

confidence: 99%

The dynamic prediction of criminal recidivism: A three-wave prospective study.

Brown

Amand

Zamble

2009

Law and Human Behavior

136

236

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“…Although the PCL: SV measures a dimensional construct, researchers have adopted a score of 18 or greater as a convenient cut score for "probable psychopathy," and scores between 13 and 17 as an indication of "possible psychopathy." These cut scores were used in the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study, which included samples of civil psychiatric patients and a comparison sample from the community (Steadman, Silver, Monahan, Applebaum, Robbins, Mulvey, et al, 2000). As in the present study, PCL: SV assessments in the MacArthur study were based on clinical inferences obtained primarily from interview data.…”

Section: Diagnostic Measuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prevalence and correlates of psychopathic traits in the household population of Great Britain

Coid

Yang

Ullrich

et al. 2009

International Journal of Law and Psychiatry

269

175

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There are no previous surveys of psychopathy and psychopathic traits in representative general population samples using standardized instruments. This study aimed to measure prevalence and correlates of psychopathic traits, based on a two-phase survey using the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL: SV) in 638 individuals, 16-74 years, in households in England, Wales and Scotland. The weighted prevalence of psychopathy was 0.6% (95% CI: 0.2-1.6) at a cut score of 13, similar to the noncriminal/nonpsychiatric sample described in the manual of the PCL: SV. Psychopathy scores correlated with: younger age, male gender; suicide attempts, violent behaviour, imprisonment and homelessness; drug dependence; histrionic, borderline and adult antisocial personality disorders; panic and obsessive-compulsive disorders. This survey demonstrated that, as measured by the PCL: SV, psychopathy is rare, affecting less than 1% of the household population, although it is prevalent among prisoners, homeless persons, and psychiatric admissions. There is a halfnormal distribution of psychopathic traits in the general population, with the majority having no traits, a significant proportion with non-zero values, and a severe subgroup of persons with multiple associated social and behavioral problems. This distribution has implications for research into the etiology of psychopathy and its implications for society.

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“…Un contrôle de variables a posteriori, inscrit dans un schème corrélationnel, exigerait une taille d'échantillon que nous ne pouvons imaginer tellement elle est importante. Même les analyses qui se développent dans le champ de l'évaluation du risque demeurent d'approche linéaire, faisant ici référence aux arbres de classification nouvellement présentés par l'équipe du projet MacArthur (Steadman et al, 2000) ; Bergman et Magnusson (1997) cherchent à rompre avec l'approche linéaire en proposant des analyses non pas centrées sur les variables mais centrées sur les personnes. L'argumentation théorique pour ce faire s'appuie sur la théorie générale des systèmes de Von Bertalanffy (1967, 1968.…”

Section: Remarques Au Plan éPistémologiqueunclassified

Les instruments d’évaluation du risque de comportements violents : mise en perspective critique

Côté¹

2002

crimino

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La capacité des cliniciens d'évaluer la dangerosité d'un individu a été sérieusement mise en doute depuis le début des années 1960. Devant cette conclusion appuyée par plusieurs études, des instruments ont été développés pour pallier le jugement clinique. Deux grandes tendances sont observées. L'une aborde le problème sous un angle actuariel, soit purement statistique. L'autre ajoute aux variables statiques des indices dynamiques liés à des aspects cliniques et au contexte futur dans lequel la personne est appelée à vivre. Ces deux tendances soulèvent des questions aux plans méthodologique, épistémologique et éthique.The ability of clinicians to assess the dangerousness of an individual has been seriously questioned since the early 1960s. In the face of this conclusion corroborated by various studies, a number of instruments have been developed to buttress clinical judgement. Two major trends have emerged in this regard. The first approaches the problem from an actuarial or purely statistical standpoint. The second complements static variables with dynamic indices related to clinical dimensions and to the future context in which the person will be called upon to live. These two tendencies raise certain methodological, epistemological and ethical questions

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A classification tree approach to the development of actuarial violence risk assessment tools.

Cited by 335 publications

References 29 publications

The dynamic prediction of criminal recidivism: A three-wave prospective study.

The dynamic prediction of criminal recidivism: A three-wave prospective study.

Prevalence and correlates of psychopathic traits in the household population of Great Britain

Les instruments d’évaluation du risque de comportements violents : mise en perspective critique

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