The dynamic prediction of criminal recidivism: A three-wave prospective study.

Abstract

A three-wave, prospective panel design was used to assess the extent to which static and dynamic risk factors could predict criminal recidivism in a sample of 136 adult male offenders released from Canadian federal prisons. Static measures were assessed only once, prior to release while dynamic measures were assessed on three separate occasions: pre-release, 1 month, and 3 months post-release. Recidivism was coded during an average of 10.2-month follow-up period (SD = 19.2). A series of Cox regression survival analyses with time-dependent covariates and Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) analyses were conducted to assess predictive validity. Although the combined static and time-dependent dynamic model (AUC = .89, CI = .81–.93) significantly (p < .01) outperformed the pure static model (AUC = .81, CI = .73– .87) the confidence intervals did overlap to some extent. Implications for dynamic risk assessment and management are discussed.

The assessment of risk to recidivate among a juvenile offending population

“…Andrews et al (2006) suggest, "substantial improvements in the predictive criterion validity of risk assessments may reside in reassessments of dynamic risk factors" (p. 16; see also Andrews & Robinson, 1984). This notion was supported by two recent dissertations showing increased predictive validity with reassessment as well as assessment of dynamic risk factors that can change rapidly (Brown, 2002;Law, 2004). Skeem et al (2006) have illustrated the importance of frequent reassessment of dynamic risk factors in their study using anger to predict subsequent violence from week to week among high-risk patients visiting a psychiatric emergency room.…”

Challenges for the theory and application of dynamic risk factors

“…It has also been suggested that Theory and Application of Dynamic Risk -21 including at least three waves of assessment increases the probability of detecting change (Brown, Amand, & Zamble, 2009). A recent multi-wave study by Greiner, Law, and Brown (2014) illustrated the tracking of seven major theorised dynamic risk factors (employment, personal/emotional factors, substance use, criminal attitudes, criminal associates, family functioning, and community functioning) among female offenders following their release from prison, across four assessment waves at six-monthly intervals.…”

Agency and outcome expectancies for crime desistance: measuring offenders' personal beliefs about change†

“…Items were generated by an offender sample through a free-response task in an unrelated study (Brown, 2002). Items were created from the open-ended responses provided by 550…”

“…The authors of the present research also developed a questionnaire to assess the perceived benefits and costs of desistance using the same qualitative data source above (Brown, 2002; see footnote 3). Thirty-seven items were taken from offenders' open-ended responses to the question: what things could happen to a person if they decide not to commit crimes?…”

“…'How satisfied/dissatisfied would you be if this outcome happened to you? '; Brown, 2002;Jones & McMahon, 1994).…”