Predicting range shifts of Davidia involucrata Ball. under future climate change

Abstract

Understanding and predicting how species will response to future climate change is crucial for biodiversity conservation. Here, we conducted an assessment of future climate change impacts on the distribution of D. involucrate in China, using the most recent global circulation models developed in the sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC6). We assessed the potential range shifts in this species by using an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs). The ensemble SDMs exhibited high predictive ability and suggested that the temperature annual range, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of the driest month are the most influential predictors in shaping distribution patterns of this species. The projections of the ensemble SDMs also suggested that D. involucrate is very vulnerable to future climate change, with at least one-third of its suitable range expected to be lost in all future climate change scenarios and will shift to the northward of high-latitude regions. These findings suggest that it is of great urgent and significance to adaptive management strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on D. involucrate.

Forecasting the combined effects of future climate and land use change on the suitable habitat of Davidia involucrata Baill

“…Our results also provide the first assessment of the future effectiveness of the current PAs for the conservation of D. involucrate under the combinations of climate and land use change scenarios. Consistent with previous studies (Long et al, 2021b ), our results also suggest that future climate would negate the future effectiveness of current PAs for protecting D. involucrate , for the species would experience serve range contraction under future climate change inside PAs. However, this effectiveness may be improved when land use variables were incorporated into the climate SDMs, for the percentage of the suitable habitats lost projected by full SDMs were lower than climate SDMs.…”

“…Following Long et al ( 2021b ), we used six bioclimatic variables at a 10 km resolution averaged for the period 1979–2013 from the CHELSA database (Karger et al, 2017 ) for model training and projection of the current potential distribution of D. involucrate : annual mean temperature (BIO1), isothermality (BIO3), temperature annual range (BIO7), precipitation of the driest month (BIO14), precipitation seasonality (BIO15), and precipitation of the warmest quarter (BIO18), for these variables have low multicollinearity (all variables with Pearson correlation coefficients | r | < .7 and variance inflation factor VIF < 5) and have the greatest ecological relevance to D. involucrate (Long et al, 2021b ). Similarly, the same six bioclimatic variables at a 2.5 arc‐min resolution for two future time periods, 2050s (averaged for 2041–2060) and 2070s (averaged for 2061–2080), under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, from six global circulation models (GCMs): CNRM‐CM6‐1, CNRM‐ESM2‐1, CanESM5, IPSL‐CM6A‐LR, MIROC‐ES2L, and MIROC6 were obtained from the WorldClim database (Fick & Hijmans, 2017 ).…”

“…As D. involucrate is a Tertiary relict plant endemic to China, we chose the whole China as the study area following previous studies (Figure 1) (Long et al, 2021b; Tang et al, 2017; Wang et al, 2019). Totally, 337 occurrence records of D. involucrate at the spatial resolution of 10 km × 10 km for the time period 1979–2013 were obtained from Long et al (2021a), in which an extensive database of occurrence records was assembled. Additional details on the methods of collecting and processing the occurrence data can be found in Long et al (2021b).…”

“…As D. involucrate is a Tertiary relict plant endemic to China, we chose the whole China as the study area following previous studies (Figure 1) (Long et al, 2021b;Tang et al, 2017;Wang et al, 2019).…”

“…currently ranges approximately from 98 to 110°E, 26 to 32°N in southwestern and south‐central China (Li, 1954 ; Liu et al, 2019 ; Takhtajan, 1980 ; Tang et al, 2017 ). It offers an especially rich system for exploring the interactions of climate change and land use change for several reasons: (a) as a rare species listed in the China Plant Red Data Book under first‐grade state protection, as well as an “Endangered” species on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, it is important ecologically and economically (Liu et al, 2019 ); (b) long‐term national observation records of D. involucrate are available in China (Tang et al, 2017 ; Wang et al, 2019 ); (c) previous studies have explored the vulnerability of D. involucrate to future climate change (Long et al, 2021b ; Tang et al, 2017 ; Wang et al, 2019 ); (d) despite its populations are often found in subtropical evergreen broad‐leaved forests or in mixed forests of temperate deciduous broad‐leaved trees at high altitudes of between 1100 and 2600 m (He et al, 2004 ), land use change has led to a sharp decrease of its remaining habitats (Wang et al, 2019 ); and (e) future climate and land use data under different scenarios are available in China (Fick & Hijmans, 2017 ; Li et al, 2016 ).…”