Large variability in response to future climate and land‐use changes among Chinese Theaceae species

Abstract

Theaceae is an important family in the phylogeny of angiosperm in China, which are potentially threatened by future changes in climatic and land use conditions. Therefore, understanding and predicting the isolated and combined effects of these two global change factors on Theaceae species is crucial for biodiversity conservation. Here, we assessed the isolated and combined effects of climate and land use change on the distribution shifts of 95 Theaceae species under different future scenarios by comparing projections of three model configurations: (1) dynamics climate and constant land use variables; (2) constant climate and dynamics land use variables; and (3) dynamics climate and dynamics land use variables. We find that all the three types of models predicted range contractions for most of the 95 Theaceae species under all future scenarios. Moreover, we find that climate change has rather strong effect for most species while land use change has nonsignificant or weak effect on future species distributions, although both of these two isolated effects are highly variable across individual species. Finally, the combined effect of these two factors reveals that the land use change may amplify or buffer distribution shifts expected from climate change impact depending on species. These findings emphasize the importance of taking into account the large variability in response to land use change among Theaceae species when developing land‐based conservation strategies in a changing climate.

Differential distribution shifts in two subregions of East Asian subtropical evergreen broadleaved forests—a case of Magnoliaceae

“…Less survival possibility north of 32°N would result in range size shrinks of EBLFs species. Further support has been received from plants of Magnolia ( Wang et al., 2022 ), Theaceae species ( Zhang et al., 2020 ; Tang and Zhao, 2022 ) or some case studies, such as Magnolia sprengeri ( Zhou et al., 2021b ) and Glyptostrobus pensilis ( Pueyo-Herrera et al., 2022 ). Similar to Millettia , a few Magnoliaceae species experience range size expansions that may be caused by increased precipitation ( Zhao et al., 2023 ).…”

“…Unlike other dominant families, such as Lauraceae ( Liao et al., 2022 ), Fagaceae ( Hai et al., 2022 ) and Theaceae ( Tang and Zhao, 2022 ), whose distributions are affected by both temperature and precipitation variables, Magnoliaceae plants are influenced mainly by temperature and soil variables. The most contributing variable also varied in the western (bio6) and eastern (bio2) subregions.…”

“…Other species-level ENMs indicate that only a few species confirm the southern retreat pattern during the LGM, whereas more species show potential distributions in the northern region above 24°N ( Qiu et al., 2011 ; Ye et al., 2017b ). In response to climate warming in the future, the overall distribution pattern of species diversity or endemism pattern of Theaceae will not change significantly in 2070s ( Zhang et al., 2020 ), while at species level, less species would experience range expansions and more species experience range contractions (during 2050s and 2070s) ( Tang and Zhao, 2022 ), causing some species become threatened ( Zhang et al., 2020 ). However, Zhang (2007) divided EBLFs (IV) into two subregions (IV A and IV B) based on regional differences caused by different environmental conditions and floral components ( Figure 1 ), while, possible different distribution changes through time of plants in the two subregions have seldom been explored, as previous studies have considered EBLFs as a whole.…”

Conservation of Chinese Theaceae species under future climate and land use changes

“…At the same time, anthropogenic climate change is having an increasingly negative effect on biodiversity (Garcia et al, 2014; Tang et al, 2022; Thomas et al, 2004) and may pose more critical threats to biodiversity than land use changes (Préau et al, 2022; Tang & Zhao, 2022a). Moreover, biodiversity in a specific area may be particularly affected by the combined effect of these two drivers, which could amplify the negative impact of each stressor in isolation (Newbold, 2018; Prestele et al, 2021; Tang & Zhao, 2022b). Owing to increasingly intensified global change, such combined effects will further threaten biodiversity in the coming decades (Newbold, 2018; Radinger et al, 2016; Zhang et al, 2017).…”

“…Moreover, previous studies have suggested that climate change likely exacerbates these threats to the Theaceae species (Zhang et al, 2020). Therefore, these Theaceae species will face more severe challenges in the near future (Rao et al, 2018; Tang & Zhao, 2022b). To arrest the decline of these Theaceae species and other higher plant and vertebrate species, China has established over 2700 protected areas in the past decades (Xu et al, 2017).…”