Predicting potential ranges of primary malaria vectors and malaria in northern South America based on projected changes in climate, land cover and human population

Abstract

BackgroundChanges in land use and land cover (LULC) as well as climate are likely to affect the geographic distribution of malaria vectors and parasites in the coming decades. At present, malaria transmission is concentrated mainly in the Amazon basin where extensive agriculture, mining, and logging activities have resulted in changes to local and regional hydrology, massive loss of forest cover, and increased contact between malaria vectors and hosts.MethodsEmploying presence-only records, bioclimatic, topographic, hydrologic, LULC and human population data, we modeled the distribution of malaria and two of its dominant vectors, Anopheles darlingi, and Anopheles nuneztovari s.l. in northern South America using the species distribution modeling platform Maxent.ResultsResults from our land change modeling indicate that about 70,000 km2 of forest land would be lost by 2050 and 78,000 km2 by 2070 compared to 2010. The Maxent model predicted zones of relatively high habitat suitability for malaria and the vectors mainly within the Amazon and along coastlines. While areas with malaria are expected to decrease in line with current downward trends, both vectors are predicted to experience range expansions in the future. Elevation, annual precipitation and temperature were influential in all models both current and future. Human population mostly affected An. darlingi distribution while LULC changes influenced An. nuneztovari s.l. distribution.ConclusionAs the region tackles the challenge of malaria elimination, investigations such as this could be useful for planning and management purposes and aid in predicting and addressing potential impediments to elimination.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1033-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Adaptative processes, control measures, genetic background, and resilience of malaria vectors and environmental changes in the Amazon region

“…However, these models lack adequate social, political, and environmental contexts, making them ineffective as preventive measures of effective control in response to these environmental changes and vector behavior (Caminade et al, 2014;Alimi et al, 2015;Burke et al, 2015;Campbell-Lendrum et al, 2015).…”

“…The authors predicted that there will be a decrease in populations of A. darlingi favoring the Albitarsis complex because of the drier climate and increased anthropogenic activities by 2070. In contrast, Alimi et al (2015), also using mathematical modeling, investigated the distribution of A. darlingi and Anopheles nuneztovari Galbadon, 1940 in relation to climate change and deforestation between 2010 and 2070 in northern South America. The authors predicted interference by these factors in the distribution of these two species but proposed new technologies and reducing deforestation as a means of eradicating malaria.…”

Intersecting vulnerabilities: Climatic and demographic contributions to future population exposure to Aedes-borne viruses in the United States

“…While a comprehensive list of limitations is given in Ryan et al (2019), the most important limitation of the projections of future Aedes-borne VTR is the assumption that it is only driven by climate change, when evidence suggests that land use change, urbanization, population growth, migration, and economic development play a significant role in shaping the future transmission of Aedes-borne viruses (Messina et al, 2016, Astrom et al, 2012, Alimi et al, 2015. This study is also associated with limitations related to the SSP-based projections of vulnerable population groups (see Text S1), which are highly uncertain.…”

Studi Bioekologi Vektor Malaria di Daerah (Yang Mendapat Sertifikat) Eliminasi Malaria di Kabupaten Jembrana, Bengkalis dan Bulukumba

“…Meskipun kabupaten ini juga telah mendapatkan sertifikat eliminasi, namun hasil ini mengindikasikan bahwa di ekosistem baik hutan, non hutan maupun pantai masih berpotensi terjadi penularan malaria kembali. 25,26 Beberapa faktor yang mempengaruhi transmisi patogen antara lain faktor biologi dan faktor lingkungan. Salah satu faktor biologi adalah keberadaan vektor dan ketahanan nyamuk terhadap patogen.…”