Predicting Parole Absconders

Abstract

Even though parole absconders represent one of the largest groups of problem parolees, little has been written about them. Using a large sample of California parolees, the authors examine several variables for their ability to predict absconding and produce an instrument capable of classifying absconders with better than 70% accuracy.

Sex Offender Residential Movement Patterns: A Markov Chain Analysis

“…Combined, these studies suggest that spatial restriction zones might be increasing offender mobility and pushing them toward socially disorganized areas where the likelihood of being recognized and monitored is lower. Moreover, it is in this context that Willaims, McShane, and Donly (2000) found that unstable living arrangements for convicted sex offenders to be the strongest predictor of absconding.…”

Probation absconders: A unique risk group?

“…Therefore, an understanding of parole absconders may provide some foundation for the current examination of probation absconders. Williams et al (2000) found that approximately 21 percent of their sample of parolees absconded; males and females absconded at the same rates, and Whites (followed by African Americans) were the most likely to abscond. Additionally, sex offenders, drug registrants, parolees with more than one felony conviction, those who were frequently unemployed, those with unstable living arrangements, and younger parolees were more heavily represented among absconders.…”

“…As probation populations increased over time, the number of absconders also increased-and, although identified by officials as important, seemingly little effort was made toward locating these offenders (Parent, Wentworth, Burke, & Ney, 1994;Williams, McShane, & Dolny, 2000). One of the primary reasons for this lack of effort is limited financial resources.…”

“…When considering the millions of offenders currently on probation, the number of potential absconders is considerable. The lack of inquiry into this area is therefore surprising; for some (Williams et al, 2000), inexplicable.…”

Absconding Among Juvenile Parolees in Arizona

“…Tragedies such as these are what prompted Williams et al (2000) to refer to absconders as "political nightmares" (p. 24). Cases in which absconding offenders taunt authorities can be embarrassing for correctional agencies, especially if the stories are picked up by the news media (O'Donnell & Jewkes, 2011).…”