Probation absconders: A unique risk group?

Do You Know Who Your Probationers Are? Using Simulation Modeling to Estimate the Composition of California’s Felony Probation Population, 1980–2000

“…In their study of a residential probation program (halfway house) in Michigan, in which offenders were followed for 7 years, Hartmann, Friday, and Minor (1994) found that African American offenders had significantly higher rates of rearrest than White offenders. Conversely, Gray et al (2004) and Johnson and Jones (1998) found offender race to be significantly predictive of technical violations but not the commission of new offenses. 4 Various indicators of "stakes in conformity" have also been shown to positively influence probation success.…”

“…The results regarding the effect of race/ethnicity on probation failure have been mixed. A number of studies have found that non-White offenders fail probation at greater rates than White ones (Gray et al, 2001;Mayzer et al, 2004;Sims & Jones, 1997). Morgan (1994) found no significant relationship between probation revocation and race of offender.…”

“…However, this does not appear to affect the conclusions one can draw from this literature, as several variables appear to robustly predict failure across different criteria. Additionally, Mayzer et al (2004) examined characteristics of absconders and found this group to be very similar to those who failed probation (using the criterion of revocation). In the discussion that follows, exceptions to this pattern are noted.…”

“…4 Various indicators of "stakes in conformity" have also been shown to positively influence probation success. Offenders who are married, employed, and have higher levels of education tend to successfully complete probation at higher rates than their counterparts (Johnson & Jones, 1998;Mayzer et al, 2004;Morgan, 1994). 5 While prior criminal history is one of the cardinal predictors of recidivism, the relationship between criminal history and probation failure is complex.…”

A half century of parole rules: Conditions of parole in the United States, 2008

“…In a study of offenders who absconded probation supervision, Mayzer, Gray, and Maxwell (2004) reported that those who absconded supervision often did so in the face of probable revocation. They reported that most absconders had also violated other conditions of supervision and did not differ from probationers whose conditional liberty was revoked.…”