Predicting Climate Change Impacts to the Canadian Boreal Forest

Abstract

Climate change is expected to alter temperature, precipitation, and seasonality with potentially acute impacts on Canada's boreal. In this research we predicted future spatial distributions of biodiversity in Canada's boreal for 2020, 2050, and 2080 using indirect indicators derived from remote sensing and based on vegetation productivity. Vegetation productivity indices, representing annual amounts and variability of greenness, have been shown to relate to tree and wildlife richness in Canada's boreal. Relationships between historical satellite-derived productivity and climate data were applied to modelled scenarios of future climate to predict and map potential future vegetation productivity for 592 regions across Canada. Results indicated that the pattern of vegetation productivity will become more homogenous, particularly west of Hudson Bay. We expect climate change to impact biodiversity along north/south gradients and by 2080 vegetation distributions will be dominated by processes of seasonality in the north and a combination of cumulative greenness and minimum cover in the south. The Hudson Plains, which host the world's largest and most contiguous wetland, are predicted to experience less seasonality OPEN ACCESS Diversity 2014, 6 134 and more greenness. The spatial distribution of predicted trends in vegetation productivity was emphasized over absolute values, in order to support regional biodiversity assessments and conservation planning.

A conservation assessment of Canada's boreal forest incorporating alternate climate change scenarios

“…To quantify productivity variance, we used modelled future productivity maps by Nelson et al. () briefly described below. These mapping and productivity predictions were carried out using boreal ecodistricts as the spatial unit (592 polygons in all, with a minimum size of about 100,000 ha).…”

“…Model fits were then used with the IPCC climate change scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) to forecast DHI values for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 (Nelson et al. ). In total, there were 27 future vegetation productivity maps created (3 climate change scenarios × 3 DHI components × 3 different future dates).…”

“…Both model variance explained and model performance were quite high, 72.0–74.0% and a mean of 0.6–0.9, respectively (see Nelson et al. for full description).…”

“…Forecasted DHI from 1990 and 2080 also indicate that vegetation productivity will be most impacted by the increased seasonality in the north and a combination of greenness and minimum cover in the south (Nelson et al. ).…”

Distribution and Ecology of a New Species of Water-lily, <i>Nymphaea loriana</i> (Nymphaeaceae), in Western Canada

“…Changes in the water level in these river systems because of the loss of glaciers in the rocky Mountains may also decrease N. loriana habitat (Schindler 2001). thus global climate change may eventually have a negative impact on this species (Nelson et al 2014).…”