A conservation assessment of Canada's boreal forest incorporating alternate climate change scenarios

Abstract

Ecologically based strategies for climate change adaptation can be constructively integrated into a terrestrial conservation assessment for Canada's boreal forest, one of Earth's largest remaining wilderness areas. Identifying solutions that minimize variability in projected vegetation productivity may represent a less risky conservation investment by reducing the amount of anticipated environmental change. In this study, we assessed hypothetical protected area networks designed for future vegetation variability under a range of different climate conditions to provide relevant recommendations of conservation requirements that support ongoing boreal conservation and land‐use planning. We constructed a boreal conservation assessment using both a conventional (Marxan) and a new probabilistic site‐selection approach (Marxan with probability) with projected 2080 vegetation variability probability (VVP) for least change (B1), business as usual (A1B) and most extreme change (A2) climate scenarios. We then assessed (1) reserve network performance (cost and area), (2) high conservation priority areas and (3) the influence and implications of VVP on reserve networks. We found that including VVP dramatically increased the relative cost and total area of reserve networks. Many low‐cost sites with high VVP values were given higher conservation priority over fewer sites with low VVP values. Reserve networks designed for A1B and A2 climate scenarios contained more sites with very high VVP values. The ratio of sites with high and very high VVP values changes dramatically for reserve networks designed for current and least change (B1) climate scenarios when under more severe A1B and A2 conditions. We conclude that introducing additional complexity and realism into national or boreal‐wide conservation assessments, that include, for example, elements of climate change, will increase the total area and cost of a reserve network. Moreover, reserve networks designed for current or least change (B1) climate scenarios will likely not achieve conservation targets when faced with more severe conditions, and will require additional sites. The adaptive strategies presented are well suited for a boreal conservation assessment and may improve long‐term effectiveness of biodiversity conservation objectives.

Parched pines: a quantitative comparison of two multi‐year droughts and associated mass mortalities of bishop pine (Pinus muricata) on Santa Cruz Island, California

“…; Powers et al. ). However, field‐based long‐term ecological monitoring studies of forests are costly and rare, and analyzing the full Landsat archive previously required months or years due to the associated demands on storage and processing power (Kerr and Ostrovsky ; Lindenmayer et al.…”

“…Changes in global forest cover have important implications for the study of biodiversity, the atmospheric carbon budget, and climatic changes (Huang et al 2009;Powers et al 2017). However, field-based long-term ecological monitoring studies of forests are costly and rare, and analyzing the full Landsat archive previously required months or years due to the associated demands on storage and processing power (Kerr and Ostrovsky 2003;Lindenmayer et al 2012).…”

Strategies for identifying priority areas for songbird conservation in Canada’s boreal forest

“…Meanwhile, Canada and other signatories to the Convention on Biodiversity have committed to conserving 17% of the terrestrial land base in protected areas by 2020 as part of the Aichi Biodiversity Targets (http://www.cbd.int/sp/targets). Although scientific justification for specific percentage targets has been difficult to establish (Tear et al 2005, Wiersma and Nudds 2006, Wiersma et al 2017, large-scale conservation and management efforts are presumed necessary to maintain intact hydrological and natural disturbance processes (Pickett andThompson 1978, Leroux et al 2007), and to accommodate species' distributional responses to climate change (Krawchuk et al 2012, Powers et al 2017, Magness et al 2018.…”

Context and Opportunities for Expanding Protected Areas in Canada

“…Powers et al [48] reviewed scenarios for integrating accessibility and intactness into conservation planning in Canada, using the boreal forest region to illustrate how biological elements, costs, and size considerations can provide analytical criteria for implementation of spatial conservation planning scenarios and to inform prioritization. Beyond criteria-based spatial conservation planning, Powers et al [58] conducted analyses to incorporate climate change projections and related impact upon vegetation into a Canadian boreal conservation assessment. Similarly, remote sensing and model-derived biodiversity indicators [59] were utilized by Holmes et al [60] to show that climate change will alter the future vegetation characteristics expected in British Columbia, impacting the nature of protection offer by PA. Spatial data sets, especially those from remote sensing, offer unique opportunities for understanding not only landscape status and protection status but understanding what spatial differences in physical environments relate to biodiversity [61].…”